Oklahoma comprehensive water plan. Programmatic work plan

              Programmatic Work Plan
UPDATED FEBRUARY 2009
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Prepared under a Planning Assistance to States Agreement between OWRB and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
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Contents
Overview ............................................................................................................ 1
Task 1 – Demand Projection ..................................................................................... 3
Task 2 – Supply and Gap .......................................................................................... 8
Task 3 – Develop and Evaluate Supply Alternatives ......................................... 18
Task 4 – Public/Policy Interaction ......................................................................... 23
Task 5 – Implementation ......................................................................................... 25
Task 6 – Water Plan Documentation ..................................................................... 29
Task 7 – Project Coordination and QA/QC .......................................................... 29
Appendices
Appendix A Programmatic Work Plan Task Schedules
Appendix B Programmatic Work Plan Memoranda
􀂄 Memorandum 1 – Objectives, Goals and Products for the Oklahoma
Comprehensive Water Plan (December 2007)
􀂄 Memorandum 2 – Funding Sources for the Oklahoma Comprehensive
Water Plan (December 2007)
􀂄 Overview of Technical Approach for Water Supply and Demand
Projections (October 2007)
􀂄 Technical Memorandum: Proposed Water Demand Methodologies for the
Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan (October 2007)
􀂄 Technical Memorandum: Supply Availability and Gap Analysis (October
2007)
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Oklahoma Comprehensive
Water Plan
Programmatic Work Plan
Revised February 2009
With strong support from the Oklahoma Legislature and broad interest in water
supply planning throughout all parts of Oklahoma, the Oklahoma Water Resources
Board (OWRB) has initiated a major update of the Oklahoma Comprehensive Water
Plan (Water Plan). Development of the Water Plan is being conducted in two parallel
but inter-related paths:
􀂄 Public/Policy Coordination
􀂄 Technical Studies
The public process was initiated in 2007 with a statewide series of local input
meetings. Later in 2008, that process will move into regional meetings and planning
workshops to explore the issues raised in the local input meetings.
Programmatic planning has been conducted to provide overall guidance and
direction for technical elements of the Water Plan. This Programmatic Work Plan
(PWP) was developed through a partnership between OWRB and the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers (USACE). It describes the major elements, timing, and sequencing
associated with meeting the OWRB's objectives for the Water Plan.
PUBLIC/POLICY COORDINATION
Oklahoma Water Resources
Research Institute
TECHNICAL STUDIES
Various
Corps, Bureau, OMI, ORWA,
Universities, Consultants, COGs, State
Agencies (DEQ, OSDA, Commerce, ...), etc.
POLICY DEVELOPMENT
through STAKEHOLDER PARTICIPATION
Current/Projected Water Demands
• Population Projections
• Water Supply
Water Supply Availability
• Surface Water
• Groundwater
• Uncertainties (Drought, Climate Change)
Public Water Supply Assessment
• Infrastructure Assessment
• Inventory
• Compare Available Water to Facilities/Supply
• Options/Estimates/Priorities
• Existing Data Review
Technical Studies in Support of Water
Resources Management
Local Input Meetings
Regional Meetings
Planning Workshops
Town Hall
Feedback
Policy Recommendations
PLAN IMPLEMENTATION & FUNDING
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The estimated timing and phasing of PWP elements are summarized in the table in
Appendix A.
A series of memoranda describing the overall goals for the Water Plan and key
technical approaches were developed to outline key elements of the PWP. Provided in
Appendix B, these include:
􀂄 Memorandum 1 – Objectives, Goals, and Products for the Oklahoma Comprehensive
Water Plan (December 2007)
􀂄 Memorandum 2 – Funding Sources for the Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan
(December 2007)
􀂄 Overview of Technical Approach for Water Supply and Demand Projections
(October 2007)
􀂄 Technical Memorandum: Proposed Water Demand Methodologies for the Oklahoma
Comprehensive Water Plan (October 2007)
􀂄 Technical Memorandum: Supply Availability and Gap Analysis (October 2007)
Together with those memoranda, this PWP:
􀂄 Defines and documents key goals and objectives for the Water Plan
􀂄 Establishes appropriate, sound, and accepted methods for developing technical
aspects of the Water Plan
􀂄 Defines priorities for the Water Plan process as a "roadmap" for phased
development of the Water Plan
The proposed methodologies for demand projections draw on past OWRB analyses,
updated data sets, and approaches used successfully in other statewide planning
efforts. Projected demands will be evaluated in light of current and future water
supplies and water quality to identify areas where water shortages are likely. Those
areas will then be investigated in more detail toward identifying water supply
solutions that will address Oklahomans' water needs through 2060 and beyond.
The PWP is organized into the following seven major tasks:
􀂄 Task 1 – Demand Projections
􀂄 Task 2 – Supply and Gap
􀂄 Task 3 – Develop and Evaluate Supply Alternatives
􀂄 Task 4 – Public/Policy Interaction
􀂄 Task 5 – Implementation
􀂄 Task 6 – Water Plan Documentation
􀂄 Task 7 – Project Coordination and Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC)
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• Physical Availability
(Wet Water)
• Legal Availability
(Permits & Water Rights)
• Infrastructure
(Storage, Conveyance,
Treatment)
Surface Water
Groundwater
• Public Water Supply
• Agriculture
• Industrial & Power
Projected Demands
Priority Sites
and Areas:
Detailed Analysis
and Alternatives
Assessment
• Coordinated Planning
• Funding & Financing
• Infrastructure
• Water Policy
Comprehensive
Water Plan
• Environmental &
Recreational Water
Uses
• Efficiencies
• Policy &
Administration
Management
• Efficiencies
• Policy &
Administration
These tasks and their various subtasks are depicted graphically in the timeline shown
in Appendix A.
Work conducted under this PWP will be prioritized based on funding availability.
Foundational elements critical to subsequent tasks will be prioritized in terms of both
schedule and Water Plan funding, such as the following:
􀂄 Task 1 – Demand Projections
􀂄 Task 2A – Statewide Physical Availability Screening
􀂄 Task 2B – Infrastructure/Legal Availability Screening
An analysis of water supply alternatives will be conducted at the regional and water
provider level. If major additional funding is secured, such as appropriations under
the $6.5 million 2007 Water Resources Development Act authority, more detailed
alternatives will be analyzed at the water provider level. A description of the methods
used to prioritize the alternatives analyses is described under Task 3 of the PWP.
This PWP should be updated approximately annually through completion of the
Water Plan to reflect 1) actual funding levels, 2) current information from the public
participation team, and 3) data needs and implementation priorities.
A description of the activities to be conducted under each of the PWP tasks is
provided below.
Task 1 – Demand Projections
The purpose of this task is to develop
statewide water demand projections for all
major types of water use through 2060.
Consumptive water
demands will be
developed for the
major water use
sectors: municipal and
industrial (M&I), self
supplied industrial
(SSI, including oil and
gas production needs) and
thermoelectric, and agricultural. Domestic
self-supplied water uses will be
characterized using existing OWRB
permitting protocol. Projections will be
developed at the county level for all sectors and
estimated at the water provider level for M&I demands. Throughout this document,
M&I demands refer to demands served by public water suppliers, including both
municipal and rural water district suppliers.
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Task 1A – Consumptive Demand Projections
1A.1 Kickoff and Data Collection and Analysis
The purpose of this subtask is to compile the necessary information for demand
projections by sector, at the county level, and at the individual water service provider
level.
Data will be collected from different relevant sources including previous projections
developed by OWRB, USACE, and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBOR). Data will
also be gathered from other OWRB documents, demographic and economic
projections by the 11 Councils of Government (COGs) in the state, and projections and
statistics from the Oklahoma Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ),
Department of Commerce, Department of Agriculture, and other relevant state and
federal agencies. These may include the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Department
of Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Census of Agriculture, the USBOR,
the 2002 USACE survey of water providers, and the ODEQ/U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) Safe Drinking Water Information System. A detailed data
and information log will be developed and kept up-to-date through the completion of
the demand projections task.
1A.2 Model Development and Demand Forecast
This subtask consists of two main elements—the development of the tool with which
to project demands and the actual demand projections. Moreover, this subtask
includes demand projections at the county level and M&I estimates at the water
provider level. The objectives of this task are to:
􀂄 Develop county-level demand projections for each demand sector (M&I, SSI,
thermoelectric, and agricultural)
􀂄 Develop a method to project M&I demands at a provider level
􀂄 Develop M&I demand projections at the provider level
The demand projections at the county level will be based on previous projections
developed by OWRB, with any necessary adjustments based on new available data
for each sector, particularly the agricultural sector.
For M&I projections, the local water provider-level estimates will be based on the
county level demands and geographic information system (GIS) estimates of the
proportion of each county supplied by different providers. The model will allocate the
county level demands to providers in the subject county. The model will also estimate
and keep track of unallocated demands and demographics (that is, demand and
demographics existing in the county but not clearly served by any specific provider).
The projections will be based on the current allocation determined by the model but
adjusted as necessary to account for specific planned system expansions in each
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county. The model will integrate information collected as part of the water provider
survey described under Task 2.
Demands for SSI and thermoelectric power will be allocated to specific geographic
locations within each county based on information from OWRB and the Department
of Energy Information Administration. Projections for the large self-supplied
demands will be kept constant at current levels unless there is specific information
indicating that additional capacity or facilities will be brought online in the future.
Water use associated with oil and gas production will be characterized as part of the
SSI demand projections.
Agricultural demands will be projected on a county level as irrigation and livestock
water use. The projections developed previously by OWRB will be used as the basis
for these projections, with data updated as appropriate and required.
Both the consumptive and non-consumptive components of these sectors' use will be
estimated. Non-consumptive water use by sector (M&I, SSI, and agricultural) will be
estimated from the county level forecasts. Hydropower and navigational water needs
will be characterized based on available information, to reflect the non-consumptive
use and water needs associated with those industries. The estimates of non-consumptive
use will be incorporated as return flows in the analysis of the supply/
gap in future years, and accounted for in terms of gaged stream flow.
1A.3 Interim Review
The purpose of this subtask is to perform a detailed review of the demand projections
at both the county level and provider level, before additional subtasks related to
water supply constraints, conservation, climate change, and provider-specific
validations are initiated.
The interim review will be a two-step process. First, consultants and OWRB in a
technical review committee will review the projections. This same group of reviewers
will be involved in the review of the specific methods and model as part of
Subtask 1A.2, and in this subtask will review the actual projections. The second step
of review will be an external review with selected external reviewers including
representatives of major water use sectors in Oklahoma.
1A.4 Provider-Level Validation
The purpose of this subtask is to review provider-level demand projections developed
by specific water providers individually as part of their individual planning efforts to
determine the validity and define which provider-level projections should be
incorporated into the plan. Also, demand projections developed at the provider level
using the allocation method described above will be "spot-checked" through direct
follow-up with selected providers.
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Demand projections will be reviewed in terms of methods, data and its quality, and
assumptions. Many providers may have demand projections, particularly M&I
projections, based on detailed planning studies developed with relevant and quality
data and using valid methods and assumptions. Those projections will then be
incorporated in the Water Plan demand projections (as part of Subtask 1A.7). In some
cases, however, the provider-level projections may have been developed with data
and or methods less reliable than the data and methods used as part of Task 1A.2. In
those cases, the provider-level demands developed as part of the Water Plan will be
used instead of the individually developed projections. Those evaluations and
decisions will be documented.
1A.5 Assessment of Conservation
The purpose of this subtask is to assess realistic levels of potential additional
conservation for each sector (with an emphasis on M&I) for the demands developed
under Subtask 1A.2.
Conservation will be assessed by sector. In the case of M&I, current conservation
estimates will be assessed and the level to which current conservation should be
reflected in the future will be determined. Agricultural conservation opportunities
will be characterized using data and costs from existing example projects and
practices currently in place, and/or practices that may be anticipated to become more
commonplace for agricultural water use in Oklahoma and areas with similar climates
and cropping.
Planned and potential additional conservation levels will also be assessed and the
resulting demand offsets will be used to refine the base demands as part of
Subtask 1A.7 or to show a range of potential future demands.
1A.6 Assessment of Climate Change Impacts
The purpose of this subtask is to estimate potential changes in water demands as a
result of climate change. This task will only focus on demand-side impacts. Supply-side
impacts will be evaluated under Task 2.
A review of available information relevant to Oklahoma will be performed as an
initial step. This information may exist from previous studies specifically. In addition
to previous studies specific to Oklahoma, a review of Global Climate Models (GCM)
with data relevant to the state will be performed to extract precipitation and air
temperature data. A simple method to downscale GCM data on precipitation and
temperature will be developed and applied and response functions will be developed
to estimate the expected distribution of precipitation and temperature. These weather
estimates will be translated into functions to estimate potential seasonal and annual
agricultural demand increases (or decreases) and M&I increases (or decreases). The
analysis will be developed probabilistically.
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Results from this analysis will be used as part of the demand and supply comparisons
to be performed in subsequent tasks.
1A.7 Refinements to Demand Projections
The purpose of this subtask is to incorporate any adjustments to the demand
projections developed under Subtask 1A.2, based on the results of the interim review,
provider-level validation, and conservation assessment (Subtasks 1A.3, 1A.4, and
1A.5).
Demand projections developed in Subtask 1A.2 will be modified at both the provider-level
and county-level to incorporate any findings on conservation estimates, and the
specific projections of providers that may have demand projections already
developed as part of individual planning efforts.
Projections for water providers that have individually developed projections as part
of their own planning efforts, validated as part of Subtask 1A.4, will be replaced and
the county-level demands will be reviewed to assess the necessary modifications at
that level.
Conservation scenarios assessed as part of Subtask 1A.5 may also require adjustments
to the base demand projections developed as part of Subtask 1A.2. These adjustments
will be made to the county-level projections by sector and, using the provider-level
model, the provider-level demand projections will then be refined.
1A.8 Demand Projections Report
The demand projections subtask will be described and documented in a report that
will include data sources and relevant information about the data, a description of the
approach for county-level and provider-level projections, descriptions of the
conservation and climate change analyses, resulting demand projections for the Water
Plan, and considerations and limitations regarding the demand projections.
Task 1B – Non-Consumptive Water Use
A fundamental mission of the Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan is to ensure
reliable supplies for the users of water in Oklahoma over the next 50 years. To that
end it is imperative that the plan address reliability from four inter-related
fundamentals: current reliability and future reliability, which are dependent upon wet
water availability and legal availability. To ensure the first two fundamentals, the
second two must be considered. Wet water availability is being addressed primarily
in Task 2A.
Legal availability will be addressed in Task 2B, 3B1 and in this Task. It is important to
ensure that the legal availability of the water both for current rights as well as future
rights is rooted in a statutory system that is resistant to legal challenges that would
compromise future and current rights and threaten our fundamental goals of
reliability.
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The purpose of this task will be to evaluate potential issues, in particular non-consumptive
uses such as hydropower, navigation, recreation and environmental
issues.
The following three tasks will be performed in this evaluation:
1B.1 Develop Policy Framework and Goals
To help define the range of current policies employed in surrounding states to
address the uses listed above, each program will be examined and characterized. The
results of this assessment will be presented to the Board.
A meeting with Oklahoma stakeholders, including consumptive and non-consumptive,
will be held to initialize the effort and present the overall process and
policy framework options.
1B.2 Characterize Existing Programs
The purpose of this subtask is to clearly define existing programs and policy (e.g.
domestic use protection) with regard to ISF and lake level management in Oklahoma
by identifying and describing those programs.
1B.3 Formation of Task Force/Workgroup
The purpose of this task will be to form a workgroup of various stakeholders
(including consumptive and non-consumptive) to develop a process for evaluating
any potential need for further evaluation—either in the OCWP or for further
study/implementation after completion of the Plan—of non-consumptive uses as
they relate to strengthening Oklahoma’s current law. This process will include a
discussion of, including but not limited to, a process for evaluating stream systems
where the need may exist and how to consider current and future consumptive uses
in such an evaluation.
Task 2 – Supply and Gap
The primary objectives of Task 2 are to characterize statewide water supply
availability through the 2060 planning horizon, compare these supply projections
with demand projections developed under Task 1, and quantify anticipated gaps in
supply.
Water supply gaps are defined as the difference between projected supplies and
demands, when demands are the greater of the two. Supply availability analyses
performed under this task will focus on three key components: physical availability,
legal availability, and infrastructure constraints. The first subtask (2A) will focus on
characterizing physical water availability ("wet water"). A second subtask (2B) will
focus on characterizing the legal availability of water and infrastructure constraints,
along with water quality issues. A third subtask (2C) will focus on applying the
results of the previous subtasks to screen for areas of water surplus or deficit, or "hot
spots," across the state. A final subtask (2D) will refine the screening-level estimates of
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supply, demand, and gaps using more sophisticated water allocation models. These
models will, among other things, more accurately characterize competition for
supply, seasonality of supply and demand, reservoir yields, and similar aspects.
All analysis performed as a park of Task 2 will be done based upon current law.
However, all or part of these calculations could be revised on an as-needed basis to
addresses specific questions raised by the public input process, user/stakeholder
workgroups, etc. For all tasks described below, efforts will be made to recognize,
minimize, and capture inherent uncertainties in calculations. Limitations associated
with applied methodologies will be described in summary text. Analyses will depend
on actual measured data, rather than conjecture or process-based numerical
modeling. Finally, as appropriate, ranges of data and scenarios will be used to reflect
uncertainty in predictions.
2A – Statewide Physical Availability Characterization
A first step in characterizing supply availability and gaps will be a statewide
assessment of physical water availability. The objective of this analysis is to provide
regional summaries of projected physical supplies, as compared to projected
demands, at locations across the state in order to identify locations of potential
surplus and shortfall (gap). Supplies, demands, and gaps for this task will be
summarized on an annual basis. Graphical summaries of physical availability will
also be generated as part of this subtask. Task 2A will focus on physical water
availability ("wet water") only.
2A.1 Kickoff and Review of Previous Studies
The purpose of this subtask is to compile the necessary background information to
guide subsequent steps in characterizing physical water availability at a subbasin
level.
A meeting will be held with OWRB staff to review objectives of this task, proposed
methodologies, previous studies, available data sources, and schedule for completion
of Task 2A. A review of previous studies on state surface and groundwater
hydrology, supply and gap projections, water quality, and reservoir yields will be
conducted. The general availability and sources of data needed for this subtask, such
as USGS and OWRB flow data, will be assessed.
2A.2 Gather Data: USGS Gaged Streamflows
The purpose of this subtask is to gather surface water flow data to support physical
availability characterizations across the state. Each USGS gage in the state will be
mapped with station name, number, and period of record. Historical mean daily
flows at each site will be downloaded from the internet or directly from USGS sources
and entered into a database.
These historical flow data will be included in the GIS application deliverable
described in Task 2C.
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2A.3 Gather Data, Review Past Studies, and Project Yields: Groundwater
The purpose of this subtask is to characterize groundwater hydrology across the state
and project future yields. Groundwater yields will be estimated using two methods.
The first will involve projecting current trends of estimated usage into the future in
proportion to projected population growth. Secondly, the total water available in a
basin will be determined by using the equal proportionate share (if a final order has
been approved by the Board) and, if not, 2 acre-feet/surface acre will be assumed. As
a method for addressing future water availability in those basins that do not have an
approved final order, past hydrologic studies performed by the agency but never
approved may be considered. Additional analyses may be performed as requested by
the public input process or user/stakeholder workgroups.
2A.4 Graphically Summarize Surface Water Physical Availability
The purpose of this subtask is to provide informative graphical summaries of surface
water physical availability at selected locations across the state. Locations will be
selected in coordination with OWRB to provide adequate spatial coverage across the
state and to adequately capture gradients of supply availability. Data summaries will
include time-series plots of surface water flows, both monthly and annual, to illustrate
inter-annual and seasonal physical water availability fluctuations and "firm yield"
plots to demonstrate the importance of storage in capturing and utilizing these
fluctuating flows. Firm yield plots will show annual firm yield estimates as a function
of storage capacity. These will be generated using the available timeseries of physical
flows in conjunction with a simple reservoir routing and water usage model. Potential
effects of climate changes and lake levels may be taken into account in this analysis.
2A.5 Review and Summarize Compact Obligations and Interbasin Projects
The purpose of this subtask is to review and summarize interstate compact
obligations and planned interbasin project yields. Note that interbasin projects may
include water exports and imports on both a large river basin scale and on a smaller
watershed scale. These will be reviewed and summarized for incorporation into the
gap analyses described below. Obligations (demands) and supply yields will be
summarized both annually and seasonally, if appropriate. Points of diversion, yield,
and compliance associated with these quantities will be mapped in GIS. Interbasin
projects included in the analysis will be limited to those that are already in operation,
those moving through the permitting and implementation process, or those that can
be reasonably expected to be implemented within the foreseeable future. Information
for this subtask will be obtained from state resources and from the water provider
survey described below (Task 2B).
2A.6 Analyze Existing Public Water Supply Reservoirs for Firm Yields:
Physical Availability
The purpose of this subtask is to assess the capacity for water supply yield from
existing public water supply reservoirs through a series of independent analyses.
Firm yields for major M&I water supply reservoirs across the state will be estimated.
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Firm yield is defined, for these purposes, as the minimum annual demand able to be
met given a range of physical water availability, available storage, and seasonal
demand patterns. These calculations will be based on a desktop evaluation of
estimated physical flows at the points of diversion. Flows will be obtained from USGS
gages or estimated by other means (e.g., surrogate gages, simple rainfall/runoff
relationships). Only recent flow data, e.g., the past 10 years, will be used to best reflect
current upstream subbasin diversions and return flows. However, if an appropriate
design drought of record for these analyses is not included in recent data, then a
synthetic period of flows will be created using recent data and the design drought. A
collaborative approach will be used to establish the design drought. Reservoir
physical characteristics, including existing bathymetry data (if any), will be obtained
from individual reservoir owners and operators. In some cases best estimates will be
used. In all cases, attempts will be made to reflect current reservoir physical conditions
and capacities, which may include the results of historical sedimentation.
Numerical modeling tools, such as CDM's Water Supply Investigation Tool (WatSIT),
will be used to calculate firm yields for each reservoir as a function of daily physical
flows, reservoir physical characteristics, operational constraints or goals, local
evaporation rates, and seasonal demands. Operational goals will include hydropower
and navigational needs where relevant, and an assessment of the implications of
potential recreational or fish and wildlife management targets where appropriate.
Neither existing water rights (diversion or storage) for the targeted reservoir nor
downstream priority water demands will be considered in these analyses. In other
words, the firm yields will be based on physically available, but not necessarily
legally available, flows. Firm yield estimated will be compared to previous state and
water provider estimates of firm yield for each reservoir.
2A.7 Analyze Sedimentation Rates and Long-term Storage Capacity Loss for
Existing Public Water Supply
The purpose of this subtask is to assess sedimentation rates and associated storage
capacity loss of major existing public water supply reservoirs. Sedimentation rates
will be quantified for major existing public water supply reservoirs across the state
using available data or assumed sedimentation rates. Sedimentation rates will be
obtained from literature, federal databases (e.g., USBOR, USACE), published
analytical equations, and site-specific knowledge, as available. A range of potential
storage capacity losses will be calculated using simplified spreadsheet modeling for a
50-year planning horizon. Existing data sources and existing generally-accepted
models will be used to support these analyses.
2A.8 Analyze Major Federal Reservoirs for Permit Allocation Usage
The purpose of this subtask is to identify short- and long-term opportunities for
additional water allocation to existing major federal reservoirs and/or opportunities
to reallocate reservoir water to meet future water supply demands. The 34 major
federal reservoirs in Oklahoma will be evaluated with respect to their current storage
contract obligations, the current water rights and usage of individual users, and the
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ability to meet projected future user demands with reservoir water. This work will be
screening-level only and will serve to provide guidance for future, more
comprehensive, studies of federal reservoir reallocation options.
2B – Statewide Infrastructure and Legal Availability
Characterization
A second step in characterizing supply availability and gaps will be a statewide
assessment of water supply infrastructure capacities and constraints and water rights.
Water quality considerations, with respect to constraints on supply, will also be
included in this task. The objective of this analysis is to provide summaries, at the
water provider level, of infrastructure and legal capacities and constraints (permit) as
compared to projected demands. This characterization will be performed on an
annual basis and will be largely dependent on a formal survey of the state's public
water providers.
2B.1 Develop and Distribute Public Water Provider Survey
A survey will be developed for distribution to public water providers. The first
objective of this survey will be to provide information on existing and planned
infrastructure capacities and constraints across the state with respect to water supply.
The second objective will be to gather information on diversion and storage water
contracts/rights at the public water provider level. A final objective will be to provide
a vehicle for direct input from the water providers to the Water Plan, specifically in
the area of yield and gap projections.
The survey will include questions on existing and planned raw water and treatment
infrastructure. This may include diversion capacities, major pipeline capacities,
storage capacities and projected reservoir yields, water treatment capacities, and
recognized water quality constraints. The survey will also give water providers an
opportunity to describe planned future water supply projects, assess their own ability
to meet future demands, and voice general concerns or comments with respect to
state water planning. The survey will be distributed, in hard copy and/or electronic
form, to all major water providers. The list of major water providers will be
developed in collaboration with OWRB and other partner agencies.
2B.2 Gather Water Quality Data and Analyze Previous Work
The purpose of this subtask is to identify areas of water quality impairment that may
restrict water supply development. As part of its Beneficial Use Monitoring Program
(BUMP), the state has summarized water quality data for all delineated water bodies
across the state and assigned beneficial use attainment designations for each based on
available data (OWRB 2005). Historical water quality data used for this study were
collected as part of state and federal sampling programs, including the Oklahoma
Conservation Commission's Rotating Basin Monitoring Program and several water
quality projects of the Oklahoma Corporation Commission.
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Additionally, state environmental agencies, working with ODEQ, have described the
overall state of the state's waters, and have included the Federal 303(d) List of
Impaired Waters, in Oklahoma's Integrated Report. This semi-annual report
submitted to EPA lists both waterbodies that have been evaluated as attaining their
beneficial uses and waterbodies that, due to pollution, cannot be used for their
assigned beneficial uses. ODEQ has prepared GIS map layers showing most of these
waterbodies. Over 600,000 acres of lakes and over 10,000 miles of rivers and streams
are listed as impaired in the 2008 Integrated Report. In addition, there are areas of the
state with significant groundwater water quality problems. The Corporation
Commission has a database of groundwater sampling results and other data.
The work described above will be reviewed for impairment status and trends, and
results will be incorporated into the Water Plan. Waters identified as "not attaining"
the designated beneficial uses of "Public/Private Water Supply" and/or "Sensitive
Water Supply" will receive special consideration in the screening process described in
Task 2C. In this subtask, these water bodies will be identified and mapped in GIS.
Additionally, an assessment of the BUMP study will be performed with respect to
new data. New data will be incorporated into the analysis following the protocol
outlined in the "Assessment Methodology" section of the State of Oklahoma 2002 Water
Quality Assessment Report. Sources of new water quality data and information may
include updated federal and state databases and the water provider survey described
above.
Water quality data and beneficial use attainment designations will be included in the
GIS application deliverable described in Task 2C.
2B.3 Follow Up with Providers
The purpose of this subtask is to elicit additional information from individual water
providers, particularly those that did not respond to the original survey or did not
provide complete responses. Gaining valuable input from public water providers is
critical to the success and acceptance of this Water Plan. Therefore, direct follow up,
via e-mail or phone, will be sought with providers who have not responded to the
survey by the predetermined deadline. In-person follow-up visits may also be
utilized. These providers will be encouraged to respond to the survey with additional
clarification on the value of the survey results to the Water Plan and further
description of how the results will be used. This subtask will also be used to gain
clarification on information provided in survey responses, as needed.
2B.4 Synthesize and Summarize Survey Results
The purpose of this subtask is to synthesize and summarize the results of the public
water provider survey in a technical memorandum. Statistical, graphical, and tabular
summaries of the responses will be included.
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2B.5 Develop and Distribute Preliminary Results and Follow-up Survey
The purpose of this subtask is to provide initial results to individual water providers
and gain their feedback. An abbreviated summary of the technical memorandum
described above will be distributed to major water providers. Included with this
summary will be a second survey, the objective of which will be to validate the
findings of the first survey and seek additional detail or clarification on provider-level
demands and supply constraints to support subsequent Water Plan analyses.
2C – Statewide Screening: GIS Tool Development and
Application
As a third major subtask, a GIS mapping and data summary tool will be developed to
provide valuable spatial summaries of supply gap or surplus projections at targeted
locations. The tool will be populated with the physical, legal, and infrastructure data
compiled in Tasks 2A and 2B and with demand projections generated as part of
Task 1. This tool will be easily updated (e.g., with new population projections or
transbasin supply projects) and may prove useful for future statewide planning
efforts. This tool will be directly employed in the identification and prioritization of
anticipated water supply "hot spot" subbasins for water allocation modeling under
Task 2D.
2C.1 Develop and Populate GIS Tool
The purpose of this subtask is to develop a useable tool to provide quick, graphical,
and informative summaries of the water supply availability characterizations
described in Tasks 2A and 2B. The developed GIS application will also include
projected demands (estimated under Task 1) for the appropriate subbasins and water
provider service regions. The application will provide a map of the state from which
users can select targeted water providers, stream "nodes," or subbasins to access
straightforward summaries of projected available supplies versus demand. In this
way, the application will provide for quick screening for areas of water surplus or
deficit (gaps) across the state.
Water demands for this application will be based on aggregated or disaggregated
projections at both the hydrologic subbasin and water provider level. Details of this
methodology are provided in the description of Task 1.
The first set of supply availability calculation summaries to be included in the GIS
application will target physical water availability ("wet water") and will be
aggregated by hydrologic subbasin. Both surface and groundwater will be included in
these estimates. Hydrologic subbasins will be delineated according to existing USGS
flow gages. Each flow gage with at least 10 years of recent data will be used to define
subbasins for the analysis, with supply and demand summaries provided for each
associated subbasin. Groundwater estimates will draw upon the results of the
analyses conducted in Task 2A.3.
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The surface water physical supply availability associated with each subbasin will
simply be based on the recent (e.g., last 10 years) historical gage record at the
downstream end of the subbasin. Only recent flow data will be used in order to best
reflect current surface water allocations and depletions. Annual totals will be
provided for wet (maximum of the 10-year period), dry (minimum), and normal
(median) conditions. These conditions will be compared to longer-term data to
characterize these recent flows as compared to the full period of record. Estimated
groundwater yields from Subtask 2A.3 will also be included in the supply availability
summaries provided for each subbasin. Projections of future yield from the two
methods employed, as described under this subtask, will be included in the GIS
application database. Identified transbasin supply projects (existing or reasonably
anticipated), and interstate compact obligations will also be included in this
application. Final summaries for a selected target year will provide a comparison of
projected new demand versus physical water supplies available to meet those
demands.
The "wet water" projections described above will be annualized and therefore will not
reflect seasonal variations in available surface supply versus demands. Adequate
storage may be needed to fully meet demands throughout a given year. To address
this limitation and to provide information on capacity and water rights constraints to
supply, the results of the water provider surveys (described under Task 2B) will be
incorporated into the GIS application. Summaries of existing water rights and
infrastructure capacities, including reservoir firm yields for each responding water
provider, will be available to the user and displayed alongside projected demands for
the given water provider. Additionally, a qualitative consideration of surface and
groundwater quality will be included in these summaries. Areas of known water
quality with a potential to significantly constrain available supplies or drive treatment
costs up, such as the non-attainment water bodies described in Subtask 2B.2, will be
identified in the summaries.
Consideration will also be given to the implications of OWRB's ongoing Stream Water
Permit Cancellation/Reduction program on legal and physical availability of
supplies.
The information described above will be incorporated as layers in the developed GIS
tool and will be available to the user in concise tables for a selected location and target
year. The developed GIS tool will be provided to OWRB.
2C.2 Apply GIS Tool for Quantification of Gaps and to Identify Supply
"Hot Spots"
The purpose of this subtask is to identify subbasins or sites across the state with a
high likelihood for future water supply gaps. Prioritized sites throughout the state
will be identified using the GIS tool described above. It is anticipated that the tool will
provide visual indicators on its base map of locations of projected gaps for the
selected target year. Separate indicators will be provided for physical supply
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shortfalls versus legal and/or infrastructure driven shortfalls versus water quality
and/or useability driven shortfalls. Areas of significant surplus will also be identified
based on the summaries described above and may feature in the next phases as
potential sources of transbasin supply water. In this way, the GIS application will
provide a valuable "birds eye" spatial view of the state's water supply projections for
any selected target year. Prioritized sites, either subbasins or specific demand areas,
will be the focus of subsequent phases of this study, as described below.
2D – Water Allocation Modeling
As a final major subtask, water allocation modeling tools will be developed and
applied to provide more sophisticated and accurate estimates of supply availability
and gaps. Models will be developed to simulate the allocation, delivery, storage,
consumption, and return flow of surface and groundwater at a local and/or regional
level. Models will be developed for prioritized sites, or "hot spots," identified in
previous tasks. Other areas considered of high importance for reasons unrelated to
previous analyses may also be included in this subtask. One or more "pilot" water
allocation modeling studies will be performed to gain early feedback and refine the
process prior to applying the methods across the state.
2D.1 Select Modeling Tool(s)
The purpose of this subtask is to select the best available numerical modeling tool(s)
for performing the studies described below. In collaboration with OWRB and other
partner agencies, the most appropriate tool will be selected based on its ability to
simulate all of the dynamics and physical features of a targeted system required to
achieve the objectives of this subtask. The tool must be useable for a broad range of
potential users with relatively transparent calculation algorithms. Finally, the
expected costs and time requirements associated with development and application of
the selected tool(s) must be in line with Water Plan schedule and budget constraints
and priorities.
2D.2 Model Enhancement
As questions or issues arise, either through the public input process or from the
various workgroups established as a part of the Oklahoma Comprehensive Water
Plan, there may be the need to enhance the model to answer those questions.
2D.3 Construct and Calibrate Model(s) for Pilot Study
The purpose of this subtask is to populate a water allocation model with site-specific
data for each of the pilot locations and to perform calibration exercises. One or more
water allocation model(s) for selected locations will be constructed and calibrated as a
pilot study of the overall approach. Models will be developed on a monthly timestep
and will include infrastructure constraints, water right priorities, and seasonal
variation in supply and demands. The spatial scale of each developed model will be
guided by the results of the Phase 1 analysis. In some cases, models will be developed
to include a single major water provider or rural subbasin only. In other cases, the
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spatial domain may be extended to include multiple providers to explicitly capture
interdependencies among providers and/or rural users.
Rainfall-runoff calculations may be needed to support the water allocation modeling
in areas where surface water data are limited. However, it is anticipated that
preference for subbasin selection for this pilot study will be given to areas with
adequate historical USGS flow data. Along with flow data, key input data for these
models include projected monthly demands; physical infrastructure characteristics,
such as storage and diversion capacities; aquifer and wellfield characteristics (for
purposes of ensuring reliability of wet water, not for the evaluation of alternative
management policies or law changes); operational practices; and water rights.
Model calibration will involve adjustment of key parameters within a reasonable
range of uncertainty to better match measured data. For example, percent return
flows might be modified from their original estimates to better match measured
downstream flows for a historical calibration period. Alternatively, ditch losses might
be adjusted to better account for discrepancies between diversion records and known
irrigation water requirements. Calibration targets will be set commensurate with a
planning-level degree of accuracy.
2D.4 Apply Model(s) for Pilot Study: Gap Analysis and Reservoir Firm
Yields
The purpose of this subtask is to refine previous estimates of water availability and
supply gaps for the selected pilot locations. The model(s) developed under Task 2D.4
will be applied to simulate the targeted systems under a range of hydrologic
conditions at specified projected demand conditions. Anticipated key timeseries
output for each targeted demand scenario include water supply yields, shortfalls,
reservoir levels, aquifer levels (for purposes of ensuring reliability of wet water, not
for the evaluation of alternative management policies or law changes), and
downstream flows. This will allow for an assessment of water supply firm yields and
identification of gaps to be addressed in Task 3.
2D.5 Refine Methods, Approach, and Tools Based on Pilot Study
In collaboration with OWRB, both the approach and modeling tools described here
will be refined based on the results of the pilot study. Feedback on the pilot study will
also be sought from water providers and other stakeholders.
2D.6 Construct and Calibrate Models for Remaining Identified "Hot Spots"
Water allocation models will be constructed and calibrated for additional "hot spots"
identified under Subtask 2C.2. The process will follow that described for Subtask 2D.4
(above) plus any refinements developed under Subtask 2D.6. In some cases multiple
"hot spots" may be captured in a single model domain. In other cases separate models
will need to be developed.
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2D.7 Apply Model(s) for Remaining Identified "Hot Spots": Gap Analysis
and Reservoir Firm Yields
Following the process outlined under Subtask 2D.4, the developed water allocation
models will be applied to analyze for water supply yields and gaps at remaining
identified "hot spots." As described above, the models will be used to generate system
response to a range of hydrologic conditions under a given demand scenario (target
year). Key system response output will include monthly yields, shortfalls, reservoir
levels, aquifer storage, and downstream flows.
2D.8 Investigate Climate Change: "What If" Scenarios
The purpose of this subtask is to use constructed water allocation models to perform
"what if" scenario analyses involving perturbations of hydrologic conditions due to
climate change.
Selected water allocation models developed under Subtask 2D.6 will be used to
investigate the potential impacts of climate change on water supply availability and
gap projections. This work will involve regionalizing (or "downscaling") of GCM
predictions of temperature and precipitation changes to be relevant to Oklahoma.
These predictions are publicly available and simple downscaling techniques are well-published.
The uncertainties in these predictions will need to be captured with the
result likely being a range of predictions. These temperature and precipitation data
will then be translated into hydrologic parameters such as stream flow and
evaporation rates that can be directly used in the water allocation models. Simple
rainfall-runoff modeling and empirical evaporation equations will be employed to
achieve this. The resulting data set will then be used as input to the selected water
allocation models to quantify sensitivities of key model output to these projections,
under a reasonable range of uncertainty.
Scenario analyses will also be performed with the water allocation models to
investigate the impacts of water supply and demand projections on such things as
navigational flows.
2D.9 Documentation
The work described for this subtask will be fully documented in a report and/or
series of technical memoranda for review by OWRB and other stakeholders.
Task 3 – Develop and Evaluate Supply Alternatives
The primary objectives of Task 3 are to develop a series of alternatives for addressing
specific future water supply shortfalls (gaps) and to evaluate these alternatives in
terms of costs, yields, and feasibility. Examples of the types of alternatives to be
analyzed include storage and conveyance infrastructure, supply augmentation
(physical and/or legal), existing supply management (e.g., reuse), and demand
management (conservation measures and drought restrictions).
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The analyses performed under this task will initially focus on those priority areas
identified under Task 2 and will utilize the tools and models developed for these
areas.
3A – Infrastructure and Water Supply Alternatives
3A.1 Assess Intrabasin and Interbasin Supply Alternatives and Related
Infrastructure
The purpose of this subtask is to assess the potential for projects in basins with
infrastructure constraints and the potential for intra- and interbasin transfers of water
to augment existing supplies in basins with projected physical supply constraints, and
to identify potential projects for future consideration. Existing plans or concepts for
such projects will be incorporated into the analyses.
The statewide mapping tools described under Task 2C will be used to identify areas
of surplus and areas of shortfall with respect to physical availability of water. This
initial screening will guide more detailed assessments of potential intra- and
interbasin projects (in subsequent tasks) based on considerations of topography,
geography, conceptual-level costs, institutional constraints, water quality, and
sustainable firm yields. Survey results from Task 2B will also be used to provide
information on existing intra- and interbasin project plans under consideration and
general interest in such projects.
For areas with sufficient water quantity but inadequate water quality, treatment for
M&I uses will also be considered as funding allows. This could include:
􀂄 Treating surface or groundwater with naturally elevated TDS
􀂄 Surface waters with elevated turbidity
􀂄 Utilizing coal gas methane produced water, reuse of return frac water from wells,
and oil field produced water
3A.2 Evaluate Potential for Potable and Non-Potable Reuse
This subtask will be used to broadly identify the potential for increased reuse in
Oklahoma, to facilitate a more detailed assessment of return flow recapture and reuse
alternatives on a basin-specific basis.
The existing nature and extent of reuse of treated wastewater effluent will be
characterized based on ODEQ records and other available data sources. The
evaluation will also include an analysis of Oklahoma's existing reuse-related
regulations and policies, in comparison to surrounding states, to document and
summarize the constraints and requirements related to reuse in Oklahoma and
opportunities for potential policy changes. This will include an assessment of the
degree to which water providers currently have financial and/or operational
incentives to utilize reclaimed water sources. Limited outreach to selected water
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providers who use reclaimed water and those who do not will be used as example
case studies.
The analysis will include an overview of direct potable reuse, indirect potable reuse
(i.e., potable water supply source augmentation), and non-potable reuse. Implications
of increased reuse on downstream flows and water supplies will be characterized.
While specific decisions on water reuse are necessarily made on the basis of system-specific
information and costs, this analysis will characterize and attempt to quantify
the overall potential for expansion of reuse in Oklahoma, along with documentation
of the constraints that may prevent that potential from being achieved in practice.
3A.3 Assess Potential Levels of Conservation
The purpose of this subtask is to assess the costs, cost-benefits, and potential
implementability of additional conservation to levels identified in Task 1A.5 on a
regional basis.
Drawing on national databases and resources, specific conservation measures and
programs will be assessed for their regional applicability to Oklahoma. Indoor,
outdoor, and commercial/industrial conservation elements will be evaluated in terms
of their demonstrated effectiveness in reducing demands, costs, and longer-term
trends in demands. Effects of additional conservation on M&I providers' ability to
reduce demands via emergency drought restrictions will also be considered.
Interaction with the public/policy process may be used to better assess public
acceptability and policy implications of mandatory and voluntary conservation
measures and programs. Consideration will be given regarding the potential role and
acceptability of state-directed conservation goals, guidelines, programs, and
educational materials.
The potential for increased agricultural conservation, including projections of possible
savings in consumptive and non-consumptive components (e.g. that water not used
by the crop) of agricultural water use, will be characterized using information
developed in Task 1A.5.
3A.4 Assess Regional Supply Alternatives for High-Priority Basins
This subtask will assess specific regional water supply alternatives for addressing
projected shortages in supply for areas identified as high priority basins under Task 2.
In particular, areas with anticipated supply shortages for multiple users, and areas
that may require intra- or interbasin supply projects or other major infrastructure
investments, will be assessed for potential regional water supply projects. The
number of high-priority basins and regional supply alternatives evaluated will
depend on funding levels for this subtask and the number and complexity of high-priority
basins identified in previous tasks.
The water allocation modeling tools developed for specific basins under Task 2D will
be used to refine and predict water management activities and yields associated with
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both the importing water basin and the source water basin. These alternatives may
include components such as conservation, reuse, treatment, construction or
enlargement of reservoirs, pipeline development or enlargement, increased
groundwater pumping, aquifer storage and recovery, water rights acquisition, and
intra- or interbasin transfers. Water allocation modeling tools developed under Task
2D will be used to quantify yields associated with these types of alternatives for those
subbasins, and/or local water providers, with projected gaps. The tools will be used
to perform "what if" scenario analyses for the various alternatives both in isolation
and in concert. In addition to quantifying local yields, impacts to downstream users
and on downstream flows will be assessed. Reallocation of storage pools, such as
reallocation of hydropower pools or navigation pools to public water supply uses,
may be assessed as appropriate relative to basin-specific conditions.
Conceptual-level costs will be identified using appropriate engineering cost factors.
The conceptual analysis of regionalized water supply options will also consider issues
with implementation, such as permitting, institutional issues, phasing and cash flow
considerations, and management agreements. Water allocation modeling will also be
used to perform "what if" scenario analyses for various conservation and reuse
programs capturing both seasonal yields and the impacts on downstream water
availability.
3A.5 Assess Regional Supply Alternatives for Lower-Priority Basins
This subtask will mimic Subtask 3A.4, but will assess specific regional water supply
alternatives for areas identified as lower priority basins in Task 2 activities. The
number of lower-priority basins and regional supply alternatives evaluated will
depend on funding levels for this subtask and the complexity of the lower-priority
basins identified for analysis. Water allocation modeling may be used to assist in the
analyses, as appropriate based on funding availability for this subtask.
3A.6 Evaluate Relative Use of Groundwater/Surface Water in Supply
Alternatives and Consider Options
This subtask will explore potential shifts in the relative use of groundwater versus
surface water for specific regions around the state. This information will be used to
facilitate an analysis of the long-term sustainability of Oklahoma's water resources, in
order to meet the needs of water users in the state through the planning period while
protecting consumptive and non-consumptive uses. Water allocation modeling and
an assessment of potential impacts of groundwater pumping on stream flows may be
used to assess hypothetical shifts in future basin or regional supply sources from
groundwater toward surface supplies and vice versa. This information will be used to
provide input to the regional and provider-level alternative analyses and guide
recommendations as to areas of emphasis for future sources of supply.
3A.7 Detailed Infrastructure Costing
The purpose of this subtask is to support the feasibility analysis of water supply
alternatives by developing more detailed cost estimates for alternatives developed
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under Tasks 3A.3, 3A.4, and 3A.8. For each selected basin or water provider, more
detailed capital and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs will be developed for
the most feasible or attractive alternatives, with respect to yields and initial cost
estimates. The detailed costs developed under this task will be useful for further
comparison of alternatives and for planning purposes.
3A.8 Provider-Level Supply Alternatives
This subtask will assess specific water supply alternatives. The feasibility of
alternative demand management and source of supply options will be evaluated in
terms of economic and non-economic evaluation criteria. Recommendations for future
sources of supply and infrastructure needs will be made for specific individual
municipal or rural water systems. The degree of detail in these analyses, and the
number of provider-level evaluations to be conducted, will depend on the available
level of funding for this subtask.
3B – Policy and Management Alternatives
Task 3B will be developed in coordination with Task 4 described below.
3B.1 Evaluation of Groundwater/Surface Water Hydrology
As mentioned in Task 1B, a fundamental mission of the Oklahoma Comprehensive
Water Plan is to ensure reliable supplies for the users of water in Oklahoma over the
next 50 years. To that end it is imperative that the plan address reliability from four
inter-related fundamentals: (1) current reliability and (2) future reliability, which are
dependent upon (3) wet water availability and (4) legal availability. To ensure the first
two fundamentals, the second two must be considered. Wet water availability is being
addressed primarily in Task 2A.
Legal availability will be addressed in Task 1B, 2B, and further in this Task. It is
important to ensure that the legal availability of the water both for current rights as
well as future rights is rooted in a statutory system that is resistant to legal challenges
that would compromise future and current rights and threaten the fundamental goals
of reliability.
The purpose of this task will be two-fold: (1) to evaluate the surface
water/groundwater conjunctive hydrology of the state so as to have a better
understanding of where such issues may arise in the future (recognizing that the
hydrology varies across the state) and (2) to form a workgroup of a variety of
stakeholders to develop a process to evaluate and prioritize any possible areas where
further investigations (both hydrological and administrative) may need to occur. As a
result, a process will be in place to strengthen our current law of prior appropriation
and property rights for the current and future users of water in Oklahoma.
3B.2 Investigate Tribal Rights Management/Coordination
This subtask will assess the current state of interaction between tribal and state water
management and permitting and identify a path forward for addressing outstanding
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issues. Professor Lindsay Robertson, Professor of Law at the University of Oklahoma,
will enter into dialogue with appropriate representatives of Indian tribes concerning
the update to Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan and its goal of identifying and
implementing actions to provide reliable water supplies to all Oklahomans, including
members of Indian tribes, tribal industries and tribal businesses. The result of such
dialogue is to be reflected in a written report that will be included as a special
addendum to the Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan update. Robertson will select
tribal representatives as deemed appropriate with whom to initiate dialogue about
water planning. The dialogue will include an overview of the goals of the State of
Oklahoma regarding water planning, water related issues from the tribal perspective,
common ground, possible benefits of alliances to address water related issues and
other matters as determined by Robertson. Robertson will coordinate meetings with
selected tribal representatives and state government representatives for face-to-face
discussions of issues and possible recommendations on issues. Other individual or
group meetings will be scheduled as deemed appropriate by Robertson in
coordination with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board.
3B.3 Evaluate Potential State Roles in Regional Infrastructure/Projects
The purpose of this subtask is to identify and assess potential policy changes with
respect to the state's role in regional water supply infrastructure and projects. Beyond
funding/financing programs, some states participate on an institutional/authority
role on major water delivery projects serving multiple users. An inventory of the
types of roles played by state government in surrounding states and other
western/southwestern states will be developed to further explore the range of
potential roles of OWRB or other state agencies in developing, funding, financing,
and/or operating major water supply projects. A variety of potential state roles will
be investigated, using regional water supply projects from Task 3A to illustrate the
roles. Recommendations regarding the types of roles the state should play in various
types of water supply projects, such as the authorizing, financing and construction of
state projects, will be developed in coordination with OWRB, municipal and rural
water provider interests, and the Water Plan's public/policy process.
Task 4 – Public/Policy Interaction
The purpose of this task is to establish and foster an interactive link between the
technical elements of the Water Plan and the ongoing public participation/policy
development process, and communicate and receive feedback about key technical
aspects of the plan. The public participation process includes the following activities:
1) Local Input Meetings (completed), 2) Regional Input Meetings, 3) Planning
Workshops, 4) Town Hall Meetings, and 5) Implementation Meetings. Additional
information on these activities is located at www.okwaterplan.info.
Based on information from the input meetings, the Oklahoma Water Resources
Research Institute will sponsor a series of workshops, in 2009 to discuss in more detail
those issues raised at the Input Meetings and provide recommendations for the Town
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Hall Meeting. Therefore, pertinent information from the technical studies will be an
important component of the workshop process. Likewise, information generated
during the workshops will be important in order to help prioritize remaining
technical activities associated with completing the Water Plan.
Task 4A – Technical Interaction with Public/Policy Groups
The purpose of this task is to facilitate ongoing interaction between the technical work
described in this Programmatic Work Plan and the Public/Policy process, throughout
the development of the Water Plan.
At key milestones in the technical and policy evaluations, and, based on the
public/policy schedule, a timeline for communicating technical information to the
stakeholders will be developed. The following interactions with the Public/Policy
Group meetings are anticipated:
􀂄 Local Input Meetings (completed November 2007): No technical input; members of
the technical team attended a subset of the meetings.
􀂄 Regional Input Meetings: No technical input; members of the technical team may
attend selected meetings to listen to the compilation and prioritization of issues, to
further guide the Water Plan technical work, and to provide clarification of any
technical Work Plan elements.
􀂄 Planning Workshops: Direct interaction and participation by technical team
members at each workshop, to facilitate informed discussions and
recommendations.
􀂄 Town Hall Meeting: Direct interaction and participation by technical team
members at each workshop, to facilitate informed discussions and
recommendations.
􀂄 Feedback Meetings: Technical team support of these meetings as needed.
This approach will provide information necessary to keep stakeholders informed
about the technical approach and progress of the Water Plan's technical components,
while facilitating informed discussions and recommendations in the public/policy
process.
Task 4B – Water User Stakeholder Meetings
The purpose of this task is to establish a channel of communication with the various
types of water users and related organizations regarding water use.
A series of meetings will be held with stakeholders to present information about the
technical approach and discuss results and findings. Organizations and groups that
may benefit from focused meetings may include municipal and/or rural water
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interest groups, industry groups, and environmental/recreational groups. A plan and
schedule for the meetings will be developed with OWRB throughout the development
of the Water Plan.
Task 4C – Technical Evaluation of Public Process Policy Concepts
The purpose of this task is to establish communication with stakeholders related to
policy issues and concepts that will be assessed and considered as part of the Water
Plan. Additionally, concepts identified in the public/policy forums will be technically
evaluated to support policy decisionmaking.
Policy related issues, including the policy for some relevant implementation elements,
will be studied as part of Task 5. Under this task, communication and feedback from
stakeholders will be obtained. Additionally, results of technical evaluations related to
policy issues will be communicated.
The communication is anticipated to take place in conjunction with meetings
scheduled under the ongoing public/policy process.
Task 5 – Implementation
The purpose of this task is to assess and initiate implementation of various Water Plan
components. Implementation strategies and guidelines will be developed based on
other Work Plan elements. To the degree that funding is available, components
prioritized by OWRB will be implemented as part of the Water Plan, as described
below.
5A.1 Water Rights Administration System Modernization
The purpose of this subtask is to streamline and update the technological tools used in
OWRB's administration of water permits across the state. OWRB's existing system
maintains all water right and associated historical water use records and includes
various programs to facilitate processing by staff. The OWRB Water Rights
Administration System was developed in the early 1990s as a replacement to a
mainframe system. Current, industry-supported hardware and software platform for
managing water rights information is essential to obtaining technical assistance in the
event of a failure. Under this subtask the database system will be migrated to an
Oracle system to be consistent with the platform utilized for other agency databases.
A modernized and networked water rights environment will improve the storage,
accessibility, manipulation and sharing of water use/supply information.
5A.2 GIS Mapping of Raw Water Infrastructure Statewide
The purpose of this subtask is to develop GIS mapping of raw water delivery systems
for regional infrastructure and water providers throughout the state.
A list of water providers in the state that already employ GIS mapping for their water
systems (raw and treated) will be generated drawing on feedback from the water
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provider survey and existing GIS databases. Water providers' raw water systems that
are not mapped in GIS will be mapped, using a prioritized system defined by OWRB.
It is anticipated that the majority of water providers will require some mapping
assistance or will require maps to be generated in GIS for the first time. The results of
a mapping pilot study will be used to scope the effort for mapping for different water
providers based on size, need, and other characteristics.
Potential roles of the state in maintaining the GIS system maps will be based on
criteria related to need for a centralized mapping system vs. a simple inventory of an
access system with local providers keeping control and administration of their GIS
geodatabases and maps.
5A.3 Evaluate Floodplain Management Codes, Statutes, and Programs
The purpose of this subtask is to evaluate flood management policies and procedures
in the context of the Water Plan and identify any necessary modifications.
Floodplain management instruments in the state will be discussed with OWRB and
the impact of the current floodplain management programs on water quality and
water availability will be assessed. This assessment will be done in terms of any
policy recommendations from the Water Plan and not on the basis of current policy.
5A.4 Evaluate Funding/Financing Programs and Needs
The purpose of this subtask is to evaluate the statewide funding requirements for
implementation of projects recommended by or identified in the Water Plan, and
define potential mechanisms for the funding and financing of projects.
The total costs of projects and programs to be implemented as a result of the Water
Plan will be identified through the alternatives analyses conducted in Task 3. Funding
needs will be categorized in terms of implementation timeline and also in terms of a
general cost allocation. The plan will include costs that are associated with projects for
which water providers may already have funding and financing mechanisms. At the
same time, many projects may be recommended for water providers that would
require some funding assistance. Additionally, some projects and programs will need
to be implemented by the state itself and OWRB will need to establish financing
options and revenue streams.
Other states' funding and financing programs, together with a survey of potentially-applicable
federal programs, will be summarized and considered for their
applicability to Oklahoma and its identified funding and financing needs.
Mechanisms to satisfy the needs, and programs to assist other project and program
owners, will be drafted for OWRB review. The main considerations, advantages, and
disadvantages will be presented in a policy paper for the Board.
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5A.5 Evaluate Drought Preparedness
The purpose of this subtask is to use the level of drought impacts that can be
anticipated based on the results of Task 2, for short-, mid- and long-term, with and
without climate change effects, and compare with current drought management
mechanisms to evaluate the level of drought preparedness in the state and establish
policy guidelines if necessary.
In addition, consideration will be given to characterizing the inter-relationships
between drought impacts on water quality, including reduced receiving water flows
and assimilative capacity for dischargers, as well as the potential effects on the use of
Oklahoma's surface water supplies for all major sectors of use.
The current monitoring, assessment, and response activities defined in the Oklahoma
Drought Management Plan (1997) will be reviewed and updated in light of the new
tools for water supply assessment developed as part of the Water Plan, and the results
of the analysis of potential climate change impacts.
The current Drought Management Plan (1997) will also be updated, if necessary, in
terms of the defined responsibilities for federal, state, and local players.
5A.6 Summarize Data Gaps and Provide Recommendations
The purpose of this subtask is to provide a list of the major data gaps and required
data collection efforts required for Water Plan implementation. Data needs necessary
for more thorough or efficient future Water Plan updates will also be identified and
summarized. Under this subtask, additional actions may be identified for collection,
analysis, or processing and summarizing data in support of other Work Plan tasks.
While developing the Water Plan, especially Tasks 1, 2, and 3, data gaps of
significance will be listed and documented. Documentation will consist of the specific
data need, where the data need was identified, relevance and anticipated beneficial
use of the data, potential activities and approximate estimates of costs to compile the
data or information, and recommendations for data management and updates (in the
context of existing data management tools).
This task will compile the data and information gaps and documentation identified
under other tasks. The system and communication protocols to compile the needs as
soon as they are detected will be the most critical element of this task. Training the
technical team in the use of the data needs log will take place at the beginning of the
Water Plan and accessibility to the log will be widely granted to facilitate its use.
5A.7 Summarize Recommendations for Follow-on Analyses
The purpose of this subtask is to identify analyses and studies that may be needed
after the completion of the Water Plan update in 2011, and summarize those as a
component of the Water Plan documentation.
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In executing the technical work described in this Programmatic Work Plan, the need
for additional studies and/or analyses that are not included in this Work Plan may be
identified. Alternatively, updates or other analyses that cannot be conducted as part
of the current Water Plan may be identified for future execution. Recommendations
for post-2011 analyses will be summarized, including estimates of the relative costs,
role in the water planning process, and rationale for each.
5A.8 Document Projected Trends Beyond 2060
The purpose of this subtask is to document trends in water demand, supply, and
quality (and other relevant variables) that can be projected into the future, up through
and potentially beyond the year 2060.
The key drivers for water resources management (particularly water demands) will
be projected into the future using simplified techniques and qualifying the
uncertainties. The trends beyond 2060 will be documented in terms of magnitude of
the variables and implications for future supply development and water resources
management. Findings of the climate change evaluations will be taken into account in
this task and presented as a range of potential scenarios.
5A.9 Water Conservation and Education Programs
The purpose of this subtask is to define guidelines for programs on water
conservation that can be implemented on a statewide basis. To the degree that
funding is available, pilot- or full-scale education programs may be developed and
deployed under this subtask.
The state's role in promoting conservation and education will be compared with
actual actions and programs currently in place, and any additional programs or
modifications and improvements to programs will be recommended in this task.
5A.10 Pilot Water/Electric Utility Partnership
The purpose of this subtask is to define the guidelines for and implement a pilot
program for a water/electric utility partnership. This effort will attempt to identify
and evaluate the potential efficiencies and benefits of joint management and
administration of water and electric utilities, with an emphasis on smaller
communities or rural areas. A work plan for the pilot project will be developed and
implemented to assess the potential for such partnerships to be used on a broader
scale. Results of the pilot project will be summarized and publicized through the
OWRB or other applicable venues.
5A.11 Water Quality Management
The purpose of this subtask is to consider and document water quality management
needs as they may relate to water supply and use throughout the state. This
assessment will review water quality standards, assessment, permitting, and remedial
programs (total maximum daily loads and their implementation) in light of projected
future water supply conditions, with an emphasis on water quality standards and
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their implementation that are protective of the projected water needs. This effort will
incorporate the state water quality management plan (CWA Section 208), as well as
non-point source management plans and related water quality standards
implementation plans.
5A.12 Additional Special Studies and Investigations
The purpose of this subtask is to initiate any additional studies necessary for the
successful implementation of the Water Plan or for specific definition of policies or
resolution of identified data gaps. The value and use of those studies and research
will be described and estimates of funding required for them and timelines for
completion will be established.
Subtask 5A.7 will list follow-on analyses recommended by the plan and this task will
incorporate those as part of its suggestions. In addition to follow-on studies, special
studies and investigations on elements not directly addressed on Tasks 1, 2, and 3 will
be indentified in this task. Data needs critical to other tasks' completion, such as
processing of USGS flow gaging data, will be conducted under this task consistent
with identified needs and available Water Plan funding.
Task 6 – Water Plan Documentation
The primary purpose of this task is to document the methods, results, and
recommendations of the Water Plan.
6A.1 2007 OWRB Water Atlas
Among the first components of the Water Plan was the 2007 development of the
Oklahoma Water Atlas by OWRB. The Water Atlas provides an invaluable resource to
water planners and users throughout the state.
6A.2 Draft and Final Report
The purpose of this subtask is to document the Water Plan process and outcomes in a
report that will comprise the final planning document.
A generalized draft outline will be prepared and a detailed final outline will be
developed for the plan and for its executive summary. This will allow OWRB to
visualize the final product prior to preparation of major sections of the report.
A draft of the report and its executive summary will be prepared for review by OWRB
and other designated reviewers. Peer reviews will also be conducted. Feedback will
be incorporated into the final Water Plan Report.
Task 7 – Project Coordination and QA/QC
The purpose of this task is to provide project management and coordination required
for the successful completion of the project.
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Task 7A – Project Management and Coordination
General project management procedures will be applied to control budget, keep the
project on schedule, provide the quality reviews necessary, and manage internal
resources, sub-consultant resources, communications, and accounting.
Task 7B – Conduct QA/QC and Peer Reviews
Internal quality procedures for deliverables and other work products will be applied.
Quality reviews will be scheduled and conducted by the consultant team, and OWRB
reviews of draft deliverables will also constitute a quality review. Additionally, peer
reviews will be conducted for products, methodologies, and approaches for specific
tasks described above.
Appendix A
Programmatic Work Plan
Task Schedules
OKLAHOMA COMPREHENSIVE WATER PLAN
Appendix A: Programmatic Work Plan for Technical Components
May 2008
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
TASK 1 – DEMAND PROJECTIONS
1A – CONSUMPTIVE DEMANDS
1A.1 Kickoff and data collection/analysis $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1A.2 Model development and demand forecast $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1A.3 Interim review $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1A.4 Provider-level validation $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1A.5 Assessment of conservation $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1A.6 Assessment of climate change impacts $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1A.7 Refinements to demand projections $0 $0 ####
1A.8 Demand projections report $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1B – NON-CONSUMPTIVE WATER USE $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1B.1 Develop policy framework and goals $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1B.2 Characterize existing programs $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1B.3 Prioritize and map streams / species for ISF analyses $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1B.4 Review and select methodology for ISF goals $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1B.5 Develop flow goals for initial prioritized areas $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### #### $0 #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1B.6 Additional ISF technical analyses $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
TASK 2 – SUPPLY AND GAP
2A – STATEWIDE PHYSICAL AVAILABILITY SCREENING $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2A.1 Kickoff and review previous studies $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2A.2 Gather data: USGS gaged streamflows $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2A.3 Gather data, review past studies, and project yields: groundwater $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2A.4 Summarize graphically surface water physical availability $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2A.5 Review & summarize compact obligations and inter-basin projects $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2A.6 Analyze existing public supply reservoirs for firm yields: physical
availability $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2A.7 Analyze sedimentation rates and long-term storage capacity loss $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2A.8 Analyze major federal reservoirs for permit allocation usage $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2B – INFRASTRUCTURE/LEGAL AVAILABILITY SCREENING $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2B.1 Develop & distribute public water provider survey $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2B.2 Gather water quality data and analyze previous work $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2B.3 Follow-up with providers $0
2B.4 Synthesize & summarize survey results $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2B.5 Develop and distribute preliminary results and follow-up survey $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2C – STATEWIDE SCREENING GIS TOOL DEVELOPMENT & APPLICATION $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2C.1 Develop and populate GIS tool $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2C.2 Apply GIS tool for screening-level quantification of future gaps and
to identify supply “hot spots” $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2D – WATER ALLOCATION MODELING $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2D.1 Select modeling tool(s) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2D.2 Develop groundwater - stream depletion model add-on $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2D.3 Construct & calibrate model(s) for pilot study $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2D.4 Apply models for pilot study: gap analysis, reservoir firm yields, ISF $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2D.5 Refine methods, approach, and tools based on pilot results $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2D.6 Construct & calibrate models for remaining identified “hot spots” $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2D.7 Apply models for remaining identified “hot spots”: gap analysis and
reservoir firm yields $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2D.8 Investigate climate change and instream flow: “what if” scenarios $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2D.9 Documentation $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
TASK 3 – DEVELOP & EVALUATE SUPPLY ALTERNATIVES
3A – INFRASTRUCTURE & WATER SUPPLY ALTERNATIVES $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
3A.1 Assess intrabasin & interbasin supply alternatives and related infrastructure $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
3A.2 Evaluate potential for potable & non-potable reuse $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
3A.3 Evaluate potential levels of conservation $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
3A.4 Assess regional supply alternatives for high priority basins $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
3A.5 Assess regional supply alternatives for lower priority basins $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0
3A.6 Evaluate relative use of groundwater/surface water in supply
alternatives and consider options $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
3A.7 Detailed infrastructure costing $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
3A.8 Provider-level supply alternatives $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0
3B – POLICY ALTERNATIVES $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
3B.1 Evaluate conjunctive Surface Water/Groundwater management $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
3B.2 Evaluate implications of instream flow management $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
3B.3 Evaluate modified surface water permitting $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
3B.4 Investigate tribal rights management/coordination $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
3B.5 Evaluate State roles in regional infrastructure/projects $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
TASK 4 – PUBLIC/POLICY INTERACTION
4A – TECHNICAL INTERACTION WITH PUBLIC/POLICY GROUPS $0 $0 $0 $0 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $0 $0 $0 $0
4B – WATER USER STAKEHOLDER MEETINGS $0 $0 $0 $0 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625
4C – TECHNICAL EVALUATION OF PUBLIC PROCESS POLICY CONCEPTS $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
TASK 5 – IMPLEMENTATION
5A.1 Water Rights Administration System modernization $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
5A.2 GIS mapping of raw water infrastructure statewide $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 #### #### #### #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
5A.3 Evaluate floodplain mgt. codes, statutes, & programs $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
5A.4 Evaluate funding/financing programs and needs $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
A
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
5A.5 Evaluate drought preparedness $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
5A.6 Summarize data gaps & provide recommendations $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
5A.7 Summarize recommendations for follow-on analyses $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
5A.8 Document projected trends beyond 2060 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
5A.9 Water conservation and education programs $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### #### $0 $0
5A.10 Pilot water/electric utility partnership $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
5A.11 Water quality management $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
5A.12 Additional special studies and investigations $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### #### #### #### #### #### #### #### $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
TASK 6 – WATER PLAN DOCUMENTATION
6A.1 2007 OWRB Water Atlas #### #### #### $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
6A.2 Develop draft and final report, conduct peer reviews $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 #### #### #### #### $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
TASK 7 – PROJECT COORDINATION AND QA/QC
7A – PROJECT MANAGEMENT/COORDINATION $0 $0 $0 $0 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625 $625
7B – CONDUCT QA/QC AND PEER REVIEWS $0 $0 $0 $0 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $833 $0 $0 $0 $0
A
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Appendix B
Programmatic Work Plan
Memoranda
Oklahoma Water Resources Board
Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan
Programmatic Planning
Memorandum 1 – Objectives, Goals and Products for the OCWP
December 2007
The Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan (OCWP) will be a long-range planning
document to help Oklahoma protect and enhance the beneficial use of the state’s
surface and groundwater resources. The plan will reflect the continual planning
process that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board leads in the state and will allow
the Board to fulfill its mandate established in House Bill 2036 (1992).
This memorandum summarizes the objectives and goals of the plan, and the potential
products resulting from the plan.
Relationship between Objectives and Products
This memorandum includes a discussion of both objectives for, and products of, the
OCWP. The objectives of the plan are the overarching goals for the OCWP. Those
objectives will generally dictate the products that will be developed as part of the
plan.
Examples of products are demand projections, water allocation models, GIS maps and
geodatabases, facility inventories, etc. They will be developed as part of the overall
planning effort and will be required at different stages in the planning process. The
analyses and results of the OCWP planning process will be documented in the final
OCWP report.
Goals and Objectives for the OCWP
The Strategic Planning Meeting held on August 20, 2007 and the Goals and Objectives
Workshop held on September 13, 2007 resulted in the identification of several general
objectives:
􀂄 One of the OCWP priorities will be understanding and addressing municipal and
industrial (M&I, often referred to as public water supply) needs, in light of
projected growth in population and the fact that some areas have already exhibited
limitations in supply. Development of the OCWP should consider how it can assist
public water supply systems that do not have solid plans for meeting future water
demands.
􀂄 Agricultural demands will continue to comprise a significant portion of the state’s
water use, indicating a need to thoroughly understand and project agricultural
water demands and the sources of supply that will be used to meet those demands.
A 1
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Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan
Programmatic Planning Support - Memorandum 1
􀂄 Existing policy and administrative procedures necessarily form the baseline of all
analyses. However, technical analyses conducted under the OCWP will investigate
the need for, and potential implications of, policy changes in a number of areas.
Policy areas to be considered in development and execution of the OCWP include:
􀂄 Conjunctive administration of surface water and groundwater supplies
􀂄 Municipal water system regionalization and the State’s role in regional
systems and projects
􀂄 Environmental flow management
􀂄 Other facets of water permitting and administration, such as permitting based
on annual average surface water yields
􀂄 Revenue generation and financing sources, instruments and institutions for
project implementation
􀂄 Other policy elements identified as part of the ongoing public/policy process
􀂄 Public water supply systems should be evaluated for their 50-year demands and
supply plans, with an assessment of whether current local plans provide a method
for supplying 50-year demands. To the degree possible, the OCWP should consider
water demands and needs beyond the base planning horizon (2060), ideally looking
ahead 100 years.
􀂄 Results of municipal supply analyses should be summarized to highlight areas
where future demands may not be met, whether due to infrastructure or firm
supply issues. Priorities should be placed on addressing areas where current
demands are not being met, followed by those areas where projections indicate
future demands will not be met.
􀂄 The OCWP should summarize statewide and community level infrastructure
needs.
􀂄 The OCWP should consider additional interbasin transfers within the State of
Oklahoma to support resolution of any identified (or projected) supply shortfalls.
􀂄 Environmental flows will also be considered in light of existing administration of
water supplies and potential future water management policies. Of note are the
state’s existing scenic rivers statute and domestic water allocation procedures.
These programs, plus mandatory compliance with interstate compact deliveries,
should be taken into account when considering instream flow programs and
policies.
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Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan
Programmatic Planning Support - Memorandum 1
Desirable Attributes for the Final OCWP and its Interim Products
One overarching goal of the OCWP will be to achieve a plan that has the following
attributes and characteristics:
􀂄 Reliable information
􀂄 Consistent methods and comparable results
􀂄 Defensible
􀂄 Practical and useable
􀂄 Understandable
􀂄 Consistent with existing policy
􀂄 Forward-looking
􀂄 Balanced management of supplies
􀂄 The “go-to” source of water information for water users, planners, and media
OCWP Potential Products based on the Objectives
The objectives and considerations listed above will require the following outcomes
and products:
􀂄 Accurate assessment of water demands, using demand projection models
􀂄 Accurate assessment of water supply, using supply estimate and allocation models
􀂄 Recommendations to local public water supply agencies on alternatives to meet
future demands
􀂄 Evaluation of potential regional water supply systems
􀂄 Evaluation of the state’s role in regional supply systems
􀂄 Local public supply system survey
􀂄 Summary of statewide and community level infrastructure needs
􀂄 Evaluation of interbasin transfers
􀂄 GIS mapping of regional and local infrastructure
􀂄 Policy concepts regarding environmental flows
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Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan
Programmatic Planning Support - Memorandum 1
􀂄 Inventory of existing intrastate water transfer capacities and historical transfers
􀂄 Policy and tools regarding surface and groundwater interaction and impacts
􀂄 Models, databases, technical memoranda and documents associated with these
products and tasks
Related steps as part of this programmatic planning support effort include the
development of methodologies for demand and supply and ultimately the
development of a Programmatic Work Plan.
The Programmatic Work Plan will prioritize and establish phasing for these potential
products, using the objectives and goals as a guideline for the OCWP effort. An
additional consideration regarding the planning products is the level of funding
required to develop those products and the level of funding available at different
stages in the planning process. The Programmatic Work Plan will take funding and its
timing into consideration when phasing the OCWP efforts and associated products.
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Oklahoma Water Resources Board
Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan
Programmatic Planning
Memorandum 2 – Funding Sources for the OCWP
December 2007
The Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan (OCWP) will provide long-range planning
to help Oklahoma protect and enhance the beneficial use of the state’s surface and
groundwater resources. This memorandum summarizes information regarding
current and potential funding for the OCWP, including state and federal sources. The
OWRB envisions that, combined with federal cost-shared funds, the OWRB will work
with local water suppliers and other water users in evaluating their current water
supplies, assessing long-term needs and sources of water, and developing strategies
to meet needs over a 50-year time horizon.
Oklahoma’s Governor and Legislature, during special session in June 2006, displayed
an unprecedented show of support for water resources planning in the form of
specific funding for a substantial update of the OCWP over a five-year time frame.
State legislative funds have been committed to develop the most critical foundational
elements of the OCWP through its anticipated completion in 2011. However, federal
funds can only be appropriated one year at a time, and therefore, the probability and
amount of future federal appropriations that may be available for the development of
the OCWP cannot be identified with certainty beyond current (federal fiscal year
2008) appropriations.
An overview of the possible range of state and federal funds that could be used to
develop the OCWP to varying end points is provided in the sections below. The
components, estimated costs, priorities, and schedule of technical work under the
OCWP are being developed separately in the OCWP Programmatic Work Plan.
State Funding Sources
Recognizing the importance of comprehensive statewide water planning, Oklahoma’s
Governor and Legislature have committed a substantial level of gross production tax
funding to the development of OCWP. State legislative appropriations for the OCWP
include approximately $1.25 million per state fiscal year over a five-year period.
Starting in state fiscal year 2007 and continuing through state fiscal year 2011, these
legislative appropriations will total about $6.24 million.
Additional state funds have not been secured at this time. Among the possible
avenues for increasing state appropriations for the development of the OCWP are the
following:
Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan
Programmatic Planning Support - Memorandum 2
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􀂄 Legislative removal of the cap on gross production taxes
􀂄 Reallocation of a portion of state legislative appropriations of gross production tax
funds from the OWRB’s water and wastewater financing programs to the OCWP
OWRB will continue to investigate the feasibility of these additional state funding
sources, while also pursuing federal partnerships and other funding opportunities.
Federal Partnership Opportunities
The Oklahoma Water Resources Board (OWRB) has a long history of successfully
developing water supply plans and related studies. OWRB has worked with federal
and local agencies as partners in these efforts to leverage the use of state investments
and augment them with the expertise and resources of agencies such as the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and others.
Participation by the USACE and Reclamation is particularly relevant, given those
agencies’ significant roles in water storage and development projects throughout the
state.
OWRB is actively pursuing federal partnerships to leverage the use of its state
appropriations, in order to maximize the value of the OCWP to the water users and
uses in Oklahoma. Below is a summary of the most relevant and potentially available
sources of federal funding for the OCWP.
USACE
While the USACE is not a granting agency, it does have the authority to technically
and financially support water resources projects. USACE generally participates in
locally-sponsored projects generally through two programs: the Continuing
Authorities Program (CAP) and the Planning Assistance to States (PAS). Large
projects are the subject of specific Congressional authorization under the periodic
Water Resources Development Act (WRDA). In instances where needs or projects are
smaller in scope, the USACE has authority to act without further authority under the
CAP. Here, the USACE has the general authority to study, and if proven feasible,
approve and construct certain water resources development projects.
Planning Assistance to States
Under Section 22 of the 1974 WRDA (Public Law 93-251), USACE has authority to
provide technical assistance to support state preparation of comprehensive plans for
the development, utilization, and conservation of water and related land resources.
Commonly referred to as Planning Assistance to States (PAS), these projects are
conducted on a 50/50 federal/non-federal cost-share, and 50% of the non-federal
share can be in-kind services.
Since 1996, PAS funds have been capped at $500,000 per state per year. While this cap
was raised to $2 million per state per year in the recently-passed 2007 WRDA bill,
overall appropriations for the program by the U.S. Congress will govern the
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Programmatic Planning Support - Memorandum 2
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availability of these funds, and it can be expected that competition between states will
result in many states’ allocations being far less than the annual $2 million maximum.
In June 2007, the OWRB entered into a $300,000 agreement with the USACE’s Tulsa
District for programmatic planning support for the OCWP under PAS authority.
OWRB’s $150,000 non-federal cost share under this agreement is being provided as a
combination of in-kind services and cash contributions.
OWRB is actively pursuing additional PAS funding to support ongoing water
planning needs. Initial requests for federal fiscal year 2008 (FFY 2008) appropriations
bills included $500,000 of PAS funds for Oklahoma. However, the recently-passed
final federal appropriations bill for FFY 2008 included $246,000 in PAS funds for
Oklahoma. Initial indications are that most or all of these funds will be allocated to
support OWRB’s water planning efforts, and there is a potential that additional FFY
2008 funds could be allocated to these efforts at the discretion of USACE. OWRB will
continue to support future appropriations of PAS funds, with a target federal funding
level of $500,000 per federal fiscal year through the 2011 completion of the OCWP.
Doing so will require modification of the existing USACE/OWRB agreement for PAS
support, or preparation of a new agreement, to increase the overall amount of the
agreement and extend its schedule.
General Investigation Studies
Two existing USACE general investigation/feasibility studies are charged with
evaluating water supply issues in portions of Oklahoma, and could be used to
support the goals and end products of the OCWP. These include the Southeast
Oklahoma Water Resource Study and the Washita River Basin Study. Both studies
include a 50/50 federal/non-federal cost share requirement, and the non-federal
share can be in cash or in-kind. Because of the potential for significant water
development in these areas of the state, technical studies are needed to support
informed water resources management decisions.
The Southeast Oklahoma Study is an environmental restoration study of a 29-county
area in southeast Oklahoma, including the Kiamichi River Basin and other tributaries
of the Red River. The Tulsa District of USACE and OWRB signed a Feasibility Study
agreement on July 10, 2001. The OWRB later requested that the study be deferred
pending legislative review of water development options being considered for the
study area. OWRB is now seeking to continue the study, at a target federal funding
level ranging from about $300,000 to $900,000 per year through FFY 2011.
The initial reconnaissance studies under the Washita River Basin Study identified a
federal interest for flood damage reduction and ecosystem restoration. The OWRB is
interested in participating as the local sponsor and has provided a letter of intent to
cost share a feasibility study. The study area covers portions of the southwest corner
of the state and adjacent areas. The scope of the feasibility study would be broadened
to evaluate water supply and demands in the study area and to identify, evaluate and
Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan
Programmatic Planning Support - Memorandum 2
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recommend implementable watershed management alternatives to meet future water
demands while preserving the ecosystem of the Washita River Basin. This activity,
similar to the Southeast Oklahoma Study, would be complementary to Oklahoma’s
five-year comprehensive water resources planning and management initiatives.
OWRB has identified a target federal funding level ranging from about $300,000 to
$750,000 per year through FFY 2011.
Water Resources Development Act
The 2007 WRDA bill includes authorization for $6.5 million for USACE participation
in the development of the OCWP, at a 75/25 federal/non-federal cost share. OWRB is
actively pursuing federal appropriations under this new authority, starting
immediately and continuing through FFY 2011. If the full $6.5 million is appropriated
and evenly distributed over three FFYs, the annual federal funding under the WRDA
2007 authority would be nearly $2.2 million.
Reclamation Grants
In June 2007, Reclamation published a request for proposals under its Geographically
Defined Programs (GDP) authority for Oklahoma Investigations, as part of the
Oklahoma State Comprehensive Water Plan (Funding Opportunity No. 07SF600018).
The Oklahoma Investigations Program, a GDP, is administered in accordance with
Section 205 of Public 109-103, Energy and Water Development Appropriations Act of
2006. This funding opportunity covers potential Reclamation support through FFY
2011, and offers up to $300,000 of federal funding, contingent on availability of
appropriations.
Section 205 authorizes Reclamation “to enter into grants, cooperative agreements, and
other agreements with irrigation or water districts and States to fund up to 50 percent
of the cost of planning, designing, and constructing improvements that will conserve
water, increase water use efficiency, or enhance water management through
measurement or automation, at existing water supply projects….. [and] to enter into
grants or cooperative agreements with universities or non-profit research institutions
to fund water use efficiency research.”
OWRB submitted a proposal for Reclamation funding under this funding opportunity
and was awarded a grant. The initial amount of the grant was for $20,000, with
possible additional funds to be made available if adequate appropriations are made
available to Reclamation. OWRB will continue to pursue this opportunity, with a goal
of reaching the full $300,000 federal grant amount between now and 2011.
Other Opportunities
The OWRB is continuously in search of additional partnership and funding
opportunities to leverage the state’s investment in the OCWP. Additional
opportunities may become available as the development of the OCWP progresses.
For example, the USGS and other state and federal partners are actively engaging in
the study of instream environmental flows, and it is anticipated that they will
Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan
Programmatic Planning Support - Memorandum 2
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contribute some level of in-kind support toward those investigations. Similarly, the
Oklahoma Water Resources Research Institute is contributing in-kind services and
identifying other financial partnering opportunities as it conducts its public and
policy work under the overall umbrella of the OCWP.
Summary
Significant state funding has already been committed to the development of the
OCWP, and it is anticipated that federal funding and support will play an important
role in enhancing the analyses and results of the OCWP. A summary of federal and
state funding goals is provided in Table 1 below. The Programmatic Work Plan is
being developed as a phased, prioritized plan for conducting the technical and
public/policy elements of the OCWP, such that the work can continue in a logical
manner under any of the range of possible funding levels.
While the timing and amounts of the funding listed in this table may vary depending
on the ability to appropriate federal funds, the OWRB has clearly established a
roadmap for funding a thorough analysis of statewide water supplies, demands, and
solutions to meet Oklahomans’ needs through 2060.
Table 1 Potential Range and Timing of Federal and State Funding
Calendar Year
State Fiscal Year (Jan-Dec)
Federal Fiscal Year (Oct-Sep) FFY 2007
Southeast Oklahoma Water
Resource Study $2,690,000 $2,690,000
Washita River Basin Study $2,270,000 $2,270,000
WRDA Appropriations $6,500,000 $2,166,667
Reclamation GDP Grants $300,000 $300,000
Planning Assistance to States $150,000 $2,150,000 $2,150,000
Total Federal Funding
Potential by Calendar Year $13,910,100 $9,576,667
Oklahoma Legislative
Appropriations $6,241,250 N/A
Potential Additional State
Appropriations $6,241,250 N/A
Total Funding Potential by
Calendar Year $26,392,600
* In-kind and/or cash, depending on specific federal source
SFY 2007
FFY 2008
CY 2007 CY 2008
FFY 2009
CY 2009 CY 2010 CY 2011
$700,000 $800,000 $900,000
FFY 2010 FFY 2011
SFY 2008 SFY 2009 SFY 2010 SFY 2011
$290,000
$1,248,250 $1,248,250
$1,248,250 $1,248,250 $1,248,250 $1,248,250
$270,000 $500,000 $750,000 $750,000
$1,248,250 $1,248,250 $1,248,250
$1,248,250
$0 $2,166,667 $2,166,667 $2,166,667
$20,000 $100,000 $100,000 $80,000
$4,054,200 $4,336,700
$500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000
Total
Potential
Funding
Local Match
Required*
$2,916,500 $4,298,200 $6,550,700 $6,833,200 $5,794,000
$420,000 $1,801,700 $3,297,500
Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan
Overview of Technical Approach for Water Supply and
Demand Projections
October 2007
The Oklahoma Water Resources Board (OWRB) has initiated a major update of the
Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan (Water Plan). Development of the Water Plan
is being conducted in two parallel but inter-related paths:
􀂄 Public / Policy
Coordination
􀂄 Technical
Studies
The public process
was initiated in
April 2007 with a
statewide series of
local input
meetings. Upon
completion of
these listening
sessions in late
2007, the process
will move into
regional meetings
and planning workshops to explore ways to address the issues raised in the local
input meetings.
The technical component of the Water Plan is underway as well. A Programmatic
Work Plan, scheduled for completion in late 2007, is being developed to:
􀂄 clearly define and document key goals and objectives for the Water Plan
􀂄 establish appropriate, sound, and accepted methods for developing technical
aspects of the Water Plan
􀂄 define priorities for the Water Plan process and define a prioritized “roadmap” for
phased completion of the Water Plan
Attached to this overview are two technical memoranda that describe proposed
methods for the following two key aspects of the Water Plan:
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Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan
Overview of Technical Approach for Water Supply and Demand Projections
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􀂄 projections of future water demands (public water supply, agricultural, self-supplied
industrial, and power generation)
􀂄 water supply availability
Priority Sites
and Areas
Surface Water
Groundwater
• Physical Availability
(Wet Water)
• Legal Availability
(Permits & Water Rights)
• Infrastructure
(Storage, Conveyance,
Treatment)
Projected Demands
• Public Water Supply
• Agriculture
• Industrial & Power
Comprehensive
Water Plan
• Coordinated Planning
• Funding & Financing
• Infrastructure
• Water Policy
The proposed methodologies for demand projections draw on
past OWRB analyses, updated data sets, and approaches used
successfully in other statewide planning efforts. Projected
demands will be evaluated in light of current and future water
supplies to identify areas where water
shortages are likely. Those areas will
then be investigated in more detail,
toward identifying water supply
solutions that will address Oklahomans’
water needs through 2060 and beyond.
The methods proposed are to be refined
with input from stakeholders in the
planning process. A separate technical
memorandum describing the policy and
technical approach to evaluating environmental instream flows is
under development.
Upon confirmation, these technical approaches will be integrated
into the Programmatic Work Plan, which will guide all technical
activities associated with the update of the Water Plan. Initiation of major technical
work consistent with the Programmatic Work Plan will commence in late 2007 and
early 2008.
Attachments:
􀂄 Technical Memorandum – Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan: Supply Availability and
Gap Analysis
􀂄 Technical Memorandum – Proposed Water Demand Methodologies for the Oklahoma
Comprehensive Water Plan
Technical Memorandum
Proposed Water Demand Methodologies
for the Oklahoma Comprehensive Water
Plan
October 2007
This memo describes the proposed methodology for developing water demand
forecasts for the Oklahoma Water Resources Board’s (OWRB) Update of the
Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan (Water Plan). The water demand forecasts are
to be estimated for three primary water use sectors: municipal and industrial (M&I)
use (public water supply systems, including rural residential use), self-supplied
industrial and thermoelectric power use, and agricultural use. These sectors and their
subsectors are listed in Figure 1.
OWRB Sectors
Public Supply (M&I)
Self-supply
Agriculture
􀁘 Residential
􀁘 Commercial
􀁘 Industrial
􀁘 Large Industries
􀁘 Power Plants
􀁘 Livestock
􀁘 Irrigated Crops
Figure 1 Water Use Sectors and Subsectors
The OWRB has initiated a refinement of the county-level water demand forecasts
since the 1995 Water Demand Update. This “refinement” demand forecast is in draft
form and is discussed in detail in the memorandum as a potential source for use in
the current Water Plan Update. The refinement, water demand forecast was estimated
for M&I, thermoelectric power, and agriculture. This memo includes a preliminary
review of the methodology of the refinement water demand forecast. Portions of the
refinement draft forecast may be used for the current water demand forecast
contingent upon a more thorough review of the refinement forecast input data.
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Technical Memorandum
Proposed Water Demand Methodologies for the Water Plan
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Overview of Water Demand Forecasting Approach
The underlying methodology to be used in estimating future water demand is the
Driver Times Rate of Use approach. This approach defines the water use of a given
sector as some quantity of water use, such as gallons per day, per demographic unit
multiplied by the number of demographic units, or drivers. As shown in Figure 2, the
driver, or demographic unit, and the corresponding water use factor, can be defined
independently for each sector. The selection of the appropriate unit and the water use
factor depends upon the data available for each sector.
Figure 2 Driver Times Rate of Use Approach
Driver Times Rate of Use Approach
􀂄 per person
􀂄 per household
􀂄 per employee
􀂄 per account
􀂄 per acre
􀂄 per animal
􀂄 per power plant
􀂄 residents or population
􀂄 housing units
􀂄 employment
􀂄 accounts
􀂄 acres
􀂄 animals
􀂄 power plants
Average Rate of Use
(q = unit use) X
Number of Users
(N = drivers)
Sector Water Use (Q) =
The per unit rate of water use, or "little q," can be derived in a number of ways, as
illustrated in Figure 3. The first projection methodology shown in Figure 3 which
assumes a constant rate of use is often applied as the per capita method in which
water use divided by population provides a constant per capita water use factor,
which is then multiplied by future population. Similar per unit water use factors can
be developed for most sectors given historical, or current, water use value and a
defined demographic unit. Projection of future water demand then requires having
projected values of the defined demographic unit. This method assumes that per unit
water use is constant over time. This constant rate of use is the typical approach used
in forecasting agricultural water demand where the per unit use is the water use per
animal or water use per irrigated acre and the number of units is the number of
livestock or acres of irrigated crop.
Technical Memorandum
Proposed Water Demand Methodologies for the Water Plan
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Figure 3 Forecasting Options
Forecasting Options
b
b
N
􀂄 Constant Rate of Use q = Q
􀂄 Adjusted Unit Use
􀂄 Econometric Model
...
...
( , , , ..., )
1 2
1 2
1 1 2 2
1 2 3
Bn
n
B B
n n
n
q a x x x
q a b x b x b x
q f x x x x
= ⋅ ⋅ ⋅
= + + +
=
B
b
F
b
b
X
X
N
Q q ⎟ ⎟⎠
⎞
⎜ ⎜⎝
⎛
= ⋅
The second projection methodology shown in Figure 3 is a modified version of the
constant rate of use in which “little q” varies in response to the variation in factors
that could include temperature, precipitation, income, or the price of water. One such
factor is represented in Figure 3 as X where Xb is the base year value, Xf is the future
year value, and B is the elasticity of X. This model can be set up to provide variation
in per unit use on a monthly basis, or over time throughout the forecast period.
The third forecast methodology shown in Figure 3 is one in which the per unit use is a
function of an econometric model. This type of demand model can account for a
variety of factors (represented in Figure 3 by x and coefficients) that affect the average
rate of per unit use. The econometric model requires extensive historical data to
develop the demand model, and requires projected future values of the individual
explanatory variables.
As described below, county-level data were collected and used with the IWR-MAIN
version 6.0 residential water demand models and nonresidential water use
coefficients to estimate the M&I county water demands in the refinement draft
forecast. The residential water use models of the IWR-MAIN water demand forecast
software typically use well-defined econometric models to estimate the average water
use per household. Alternatively, one can estimate a unique water demand model
from site-specific historical data. Developing a custom set of econometric models of
per unit water use for water use sectors in Oklahoma is not necessary for the purposes
of the Water Plan update.
Technical Memorandum
Proposed Water Demand Methodologies for the Water Plan
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Municipal and Industrial (M&I) Water Use
Water demand for municipal and industrial use, also referred to as public water
supply, is to be estimated at the system level. That is, current water demands are to be
identified and future water demands are to