Oklahoma water resources bulletin & summary of current conditions.

              Water Resources Bulletin, 12/1/2011 – page 1
December 1, 2011
1 The Fractional Water Index ranges from very dry soil having a value of 0 to soil at field capacity illustrated by a value of 1.
[1.0-0.8 = Enhanced Growth; 0.8-0.5 = Limited Growth; 0.5-0.3 = Plants Wilting; 0.3-0.1 = Plants Dying; <0.1 = Barren Soil.] PRECIPITATION Statewide Precipitation CLIMATE DIVISION Cool Growing Season September 1 – November 27, 2011 Last 365 Days November 28, 2010 – November 27, 2011 TOTAL RAINFALL (INCHES) DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL (INCHES) PERCENT OF NORMAL RANK SINCE 1921 TOTAL RAINFALL (INCHES) DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL (INCHES) PERCENT OF NORMAL RANK SINCE 1921 Panhandle
3.00"
-1.33"
69%
28th driest 8.43" -12.67" 40% 1st driest
North Central
7.04"
-0.62"
92%
43rd wettest
18.18"
-13.47"
57%
5th driest
Northeast
9.89"
-1.77"
85%
44th driest
33.47"
-8.50"
80%
21st driest West Central
6.60"
-0.54"
92%
40th wettest 13.80" -15.29" 47% 2nd driest
Central
9.57"
-0.73"
93%
38th wettest
24.08"
-13.91"
63%
5th driest
East Central
12.41"
-0.69"
95%
37th wettest
39.40"
-6.69"
85%
24th driest Southwest
7.84"
-0.09"
99%
39th wettest 14.48" -16.32" 47% 1st driest
South Central
10.26"
-1.12"
90%
41st wettest
24.28"
-16.68"
59%
3rd driest
Southeast
11.96"
-2.13"
85%
43rd wettest
39.25"
-11.69"
77%
10th driest
Statewide
8.72"
-1.00"
90%
43rd wettest
23.88"
-12.81"
65%
6th driest
SOIL MOISTURE Fractional Water Index1 November 28, 2011
Water Resources Bulletin, 12/1/2011 – page 2
DROUGHT INDICES Palmer Drought Severity Index1 Standardized Precipitation Index2 Through October 2011 CLIMATE DIVISION CURRENT STATUS 11/26/2011 VALUE CHANGE IN VALUE 3-MONTH 6-MONTH 9-MONTH 12-MONTH 11/26 10/22 Northwest SEVERE DROUGHT -3.95 -5.07 1.12 MODERATELY DRY EXTREMELY DRY EXTREMELY DRY EXTREMELY DRY North Central MILD DROUGHT -1.42 -3.28 1.86
NEAR NORMAL VERY DRY VERY DRY VERY DRY Northeast NEAR NORMAL -0.39 -2.36 1.97
NEAR NORMAL VERY DRY MODERATELY DRY MODERATELY DRY West Central MODERATE DROUGHT -2.73 -4.91 2.18
NEAR NORMAL VERY DRY EXTREMELY DRY EXTREMELY DRY Central MODERATE DROUGHT -2.10 -4.39 2.29
NEAR NORMAL MODERATELY DRY VERY DRY VERY DRY East Central
NEAR NORMAL
0.15
-2.47
2.62
NEAR NORMAL VERY DRY VERY DRY VERY DRY Southwest MODERATE DROUGHT -2.95 -5.29 2.34 MODERATELY DRY EXTREMELY DRY EXTREMELY DRY EXTREMELY DRY South Central MODERATE DROUGHT -2.82 -5.05 2.23 VERY DRY EXTREMELY DRY EXTREMELY DRY EXTREMELY DRY Southeast
INCIPIENT DROUGHT
-0.65
-4.00
3.35 MODERATELY DRY VERY DRY VERY DRY VERY DRY
 Seven climate divisions are currently experiencing drought conditions, according to the PDSI. However, none are now classified in extreme drought and only one is in severe drought. All climate divisions have undergone PDSI moisture increases since October 22.
 Every climate division is experiencing near long-term dry conditions, according to the SPI.
Keetch-Byram Drought Fire Index3 MESONET STATION CLIMATE DIVISION CURRENT VALUE 11/28/2011
 Stations currently at or above 600 (November 28) = 4
 Stations above 600 on October 24 = 25
Hooker
Panhandle
731
Beaver
Panhandle
670
Goodwell
Panhandle
627
1 The Palmer Drought Severity Index, the first comprehensive drought index developed in the United States, is calculated based on precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture. Though widely used by government agencies and states to trigger drought relief programs, the PDSI may underestimate or overestimate the severity of ongoing dry periods.
2 The Standardized Precipitation Index, more sensitive than the PDSI, provides a comparison of precipitation over a specified period with precipitation totals from that same period for all years included in the historical record. The 3-month SPI provides a seasonal estimation of precipitation while the 6-month SPI can be very effective in showing precipitation over distinct seasons.
3 The Keetch-Byram Drought Index measures the state of near-surface soil moisture (within the uppermost eight inches of soil) as well as the amount of fuel available for fires. KBDI values of 600 and above are often associated with more severe drought and increased wildfire occurrence. Water Resources Bulletin, 12/1/2011 – page 3
WEATHER/DROUGHT FORECAST 8- to 14-Day Outlook December 6-12, 2011 Temperature Precipitation
Regional Drought Summary & Outlook
November 29—The latest U.S. Drought Monitor reports that another round of light to moderate precipitation fell on most of the southern and central Plains, continuing a recent pattern of near to above normal precipitation. This was good news after Oklahoma recorded the second driest October-September period (12-months) on record (since 1895) in 2010-2011. Along the Kansas/Oklahoma border, 0.5 to 1.5 inches of precipitation occurred while 0.3 to one inch was measured in the rest of Oklahoma and central and eastern Kansas. Also due to lower temperatures and declining evapotranspiration rates, some 1-category improvements were made in eastern Oklahoma, and along the Kansas-Oklahoma border. Runoff from recent rains has filled Lakes Hugo, Broken Bow, and Wister. USGS stream flows bordering Arkansas are averaging 80 percent of normal or better. In contrast, lake levels remained essentially unchanged from last week elsewhere. Major soil moisture issues below the topsoil remained in west central and northwestern areas. Lakes Great Salt Plains, Fort Supply, Canton, Lugert-Altus, Tom Steed, and Skiatook are down 40-80 percent with almost no recharge in the past month. Therefore, D3 and D4 remained in western and central Oklahoma.
According to the latest Drought Outlook (December 1), La Niña conditions developed during the fall season in the northern hemisphere for the second year in a row. During the previous two weeks, widespread rainfall further eased lingering drought conditions across the lower Mississippi Valley and southeastern Plains in a continuation of a wet autumn pattern. Short-term forecasts indicate new rounds of heavy rainfall in early December, which will likely bring additional improvement from southeastern Kansas through northern Louisiana. An early December winter storm might also bring some early mountain snowfall to the Southwest, though overall below median precipitation is expected during the winter season. However, ongoing drought conditions elsewhere across the southern tier of U.S. states are expected to persist or worsen. Water Resources Bulletin, 12/1/2011 – page 4
CROP REPORT
November 28, 2011 – A significant rainfall event Monday brought a good soaking rain, especially in southeast Oklahoma. Recent rains were reflected in improvements to the November 22 Drought Monitor although 63 percent of the state is still in a severe to exceptional drought, down from 85 percent the week before. The additional moisture helped small grain conditions and improved the availability of wheat grazing this fall. However, recent rains could not mitigate all the negative effects of the drought, as the lack of hay and pasture were still problems for livestock producers. Topsoil moisture conditions improved and are now rated mostly adequate. Subsoil moisture conditions also improved, though 47 percent are still rated very short, down from 56 percent the week prior. There were 4.6 days suitable for field work due to the multiple showers throughout the week.
Canola and small grain conditions continued to be rated mostly good to fair. Wheat grazing prospects improved, with additional moisture still required to make it through the winter months. Wheat emerged reached 97 percent complete. Seedbed preparation for oat ground was 85 percent complete, oat planting reached 64 percent complete, and 63 percent had emerged, even with the five-year average.
The fall harvest began to wind down and was more than three-quarters complete for all row crops. The sorghum harvest was 85 percent complete, slightly behind the five-year average. Soybeans harvested reached 83 percent complete by Sunday, 11 points behind normal. Peanuts combined reached 95 percent complete by Sunday. The cotton harvest was 77 percent complete by week’s end, eight points ahead of the five-year average.
Recent rainfall events were too late in the season to benefit hay production, as very little hay was cut last week. Hay supplies for the season were rated below average for 87 percent of the state. Third cuttings of alfalfa were 76 percent complete, and 23 percent of the state had completed a fourth cutting. A second cutting of other hay was 61 percent complete by Sunday, 33 points behind normal.
Half of the pasture and range in the state was rated in very poor condition. The availability of grass continued to be of great concern to livestock producers as continued growth of cool season grasses is limited. Livestock conditions continued to be rated mostly good to fair, unchanged from last week. Many livestock ponds were replenished with the rains last week, especially in the southeast. However, some areas have still not received large enough rain amounts to produce the runoff needed for ponds.
Water Resources Bulletin, 12/1/2011 – page 5
RESERVOIR STORAGE
 21 major reservoirs are currently operating at less than full capacity (compared to 30 five weeks ago).
 6 reservoirs have experienced lake level decreases.
Normal PoolPreviousCurrentChange inCurrent Flood ElevationElevationElevationElevationControl Storage10/24/201111/28/2011(feet)(feet)(feet)(feet)(acre-feet)North CentralFort Supply2004.002001.002000.98(0.02)(4,708)Great Salt Plains1125.001123.211123.440.23(10,240)Kaw*1010.001008.231009.721.49(4,530)NortheastBirch750.50742.85742.33(0.52)(8,129)Copan710.00708.64709.560.92(1,716)Fort Gibson554.00552.96554.671.7112,931Grand*742.00741.13742.020.89881Hudson619.00619.12620.331.2114,809Hulah733.00730.79731.490.70(4,448)Keystone723.00720.23723.473.247,944Oologah638.00635.41635.980.57(56,352)Skiatook714.00701.96701.67(0.29)(110,817)West CentralCanton1615.401605.801603.69(2.11)(70,136)Foss1642.001636.221635.83(0.39)(38,386)CentralArcadia1006.001005.141006.351.21675Heyburn761.50759.34761.482.14(13)Thunderbird1039.001033.991034.130.14(27,193)East CentralEufaula585.00580.95582.691.74(208,660)Tenkiller632.00627.15633.176.0215,327SouthwestFort Cobb1342.001337.761338.220.46(13,245)Lugert-Altus1559.001531.201532.020.82(109,697)Tom Steed1411.001403.421404.551.13(35,808)South CentralArbuckle872.00865.46867.742.28(9,556)McGee Creek**175.90174.06174.200.14(19,896)Texoma*618.50609.98612.182.20(460,295)Waurika951.40946.46945.99(0.47)(49,121)SoutheastBroken Bow*599.50590.26600.5310.2714,680Hugo*406.00401.30412.0610.7696,841Pine Creek433.00423.91441.6617.7532,036Sardis599.00596.48597.891.41(14,736)Wister478.00475.73492.3816.65148,105* indicates seasonal pool operation ** elevation in metersnegative numbers in red, parenthesesLake or ReservoirStorage in Selected Oklahoma Lakes & ReservoirsNovember 28, 2011Water Resources Bulletin, 12/1/2011 – page 6
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS Baron Fork at Eldon Canadian River at Purcell
Cimarron River near Waynoka Glover River near Glover
North Fork of the Red River near Carter Washita River near Dickson
Water Bulletin information/data courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, State Department of Agriculture, Food, and Forestry, Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Department of Agriculture/Forest Service, U.S. Geological Survey, Western Drought Coordination Council, and National Drought Mitigation Center. For more information, visit www.owrb.ok.gov and www.mesonet.org.