Demographic state of the state report, 2012

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2012 DEMOGRAPHIC STATE OF THE
STATE REPORT
OKLAHOMA STATE AND COUNTY POPULATION
PROJECTIONS THROUGH 2075
Steve Barker, MBA
Sr. Research Analyst/Program Manager
Policy, Research and Economic Analysis Division
Oklahoma Department of Commerce
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Executive Summary
Oklahoma’s population is projected to top 5 million by the time the state celebrates its 150th birthday.
 By the 2020 Census, Oklahoma’s population will top 4 million
 By the mid 2050s, Oklahoma’s population will top 5 million
 By 2075, Oklahoma’s population will top 5.5 million
Oklahoma’s population is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 0.73% over the next 65 years,
equivalent to the US Census Bureau’s most recent national growth forecasts through 2050. The Census
Bureau does not have state level population forecasts.
5,560,007
1,657,155
2,028,283
2,396,040 2,336,434
2,233,351
2,328,284
2,559,229
3,025,290
3,145,585
3,450,654
3,751,351
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Oklahoma: Statewide Population
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Sum of Individual County Forecasts
Oklahoma Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Oklahoma Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Oklahoma Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
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Counties surrounding present day Tulsa and Oklahoma City metro areas are forecast to see substantial
population growth. In 2010, the 14 counties currently included in the Tulsa and Oklahoma City MSAs
combined to represent 58.4% of the state’s total population but by 2075, those same 14 counties are
forecast to represent 64.2% of the state’s total population. Tulsa and Oklahoma counties alone will
combine to represent 35.6% of the state’s population.
2010 Population
for Counties That Make Up Present Day Tulsa and OKC MSAs
Creek 69,967 Canadian 115,541
Okmulgee 40,069 Cleveland 255,755
Osage 47,472 Grady 52,431
Pawnee 16,577 Lincoln 34,273
Rogers 86,905 Logan 41,848
Tulsa 603,403 McClain 34,506
Wagoner 73,085 Oklahoma 718,633
Total Tulsa MSA 937,478 Total OKC MSA 1,252,987
Percentage of
Statewide total
25.0% 33.4%
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
2075 Population Forecast
for Counties That Make Up Present Day Tulsa and OKC MSAs
Creek 109,751 Canadian 232,316
Okmulgee 44,406 Cleveland 521,368
Osage 71,916 Grady 82,549
Pawnee 24,929 Lincoln 55,400
Rogers 173,122 Logan 69,711
Tulsa 934,215 McClain 61,698
Wagoner 144,991 Oklahoma 1,042,525
Total Tulsa MSA 1,503,330 Total OKC MSA 2,065,568
Percentage of
Statewide total
27.0% 37.2%
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
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There are 25 counties in Oklahoma forecast to experience population decline over the next 65 years.
Many of these counties, mostly in western Oklahoma, experienced their peak population levels in 1910,
shortly after Oklahoma achieved statehood. While these counties are expected to continue to
experience population declines, the rate of decline is expected to slow over the coming decades.
Counties forecast to experience population decline between 2010 and 2075
Alfalfa Cotton Greer Jefferson Roger Mills
Beaver Craig Harmon Kay Seminole
Blaine Dewey Harper Kiowa Tillman
Choctaw Ellis Hughes Major Washita
Cimarron Grant Jackson Nowata Woods
Oklahoma’s population is also expected to live longer on average. An increasingly larger percentage of
the state’s population will gradually be made up by older population groups.
 In 2010, 13.5% of the state’s population was aged 65 or older
 By 2075, 19.8% of the state’s population will be aged 65 or older
Statewide population projections by age group
2010 2075
Population As % Projected Population As %
Age 00 to 04 264,126 7.0% 347,853 6.3%
Age 05 to 09 259,336 6.9% 349,177 6.3%
Age 10 to 14 253,664 6.8% 350,455 6.3%
Age 15 to 19 264,484 7.1% 350,949 6.3%
Age 20 to 24 269,242 7.2% 350,816 6.3%
Age 25 to 29 265,737 7.1% 350,657 6.3%
Age 30 to 34 241,018 6.4% 350,293 6.3%
Age 35 to 39 232,742 6.2% 349,324 6.3%
Age 40 to 44 228,195 6.1% 347,057 6.2%
Age 45 to 49 261,242 7.0% 342,806 6.2%
Age 50 to 54 264,369 7.0% 335,832 6.0%
Age 55 to 59 235,969 6.3% 325,586 5.9%
Age 60 to 64 204,513 5.5% 310,576 5.6%
Age 65 to 69 159,392 4.2% 289,062 5.2%
Age 70 to 74 121,075 3.2% 258,716 4.7%
Age 75 to 79 95,051 2.5% 217,121 3.9%
Age 80 to 84 69,284 1.8% 166,952 3.0%
Age 85+ 61,912 1.7% 166,777 3.0%
Total Population 3,751,351 100.0% 5,560,007 100.0%
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Methodology
General discussion of projection formulas
State level projections used in this report start with population counts revealed under the 2010
Decennial Census and follow generally accepted forecasting routines developed by the US Census
Bureau. For simplicity, the basic demographic formulas used in this report are as follows:
Population in the current year
+ Births in the current year
‐ Deaths in the current year
+ Net migration
Equals
Population projection for the next year
Population projection for the next year
+ estimated births in the current year, based on fertility rates and # of women of child bearing age
‐ Deaths in the current year
+ Net migration
Equals
Population projection for the following year
What population groups are included in projections
All population figures cited in this report, whether historic counts or forward looking projections, include
the following:
 All civilian residents living within the state
 Members of the US Armed Forces stationed within Oklahoma
 All persons incarcerated in the state of Oklahoma, including out of state prisoners held at
private prisons located within the state
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Projection of births and fertility rates
This report uses statewide total fertility rates from Table S1301 of the US Census Bureau’s 2006‐2010
American Community Survey. Based on survey responses gathered over 5 years, Table S1301 reports
the rate of births per 1,000 women by three age categories. Table S1301 indicates Oklahoma’s rate of
women with births in the past 12 months (an annual time frame) were:
 Among women aged 15‐19 there were 37 births per 1,000 women
 Among women aged 20‐34 there were 113 births per 1,000 women
 Among women aged 35‐49, there were 15 births per 1,000 women
A summary of Table S1301 is included in Appendix 1.
While birth rates have been generally declining across the United States and in Oklahoma for some time,
that rate of decline has also been slowing in recent years. Further, the state’s growing Hispanic
population typically has a higher birth rate than the rate shown for the population in total.
This report does not project populations by race or ethnicity, but it is assumed that the state’s Hispanic
population will continue to grow. As the percentage of Hispanics in Oklahoma increases, it is also
assumed that the rate of decline in the state’s overall birth rate will slow or possibly reverse. Because of
the uncertainty surrounding the longer term direction for birth rates in Oklahoma, the population
projections in this report assume that the overall birth rate will remain constant over the longer term.
Projection of deaths
United States survival rates by single age and gender for 2007 were obtained from the US Centers for
Disease Control at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr59/nvsr59_09.pdf and are included in
Appendix 2.
National survival rates were used to calculate Oklahoma life expectancy for each age group over the
next 65 years. Those survival rates are not likely to remain static with improvements in health care
technology and Oklahoma embarking on efforts like smoking reduction programs and diabetes
awareness efforts to change the state’s overall health characteristics. However, the rapid onset of other
health concerns, like the national epidemic of obesity, could also adversely impact the state’s longer
term life expectancy figures.
Because of the difficulty in forecasting future changes in life expectancy, Oklahoma’s age specific
survival rates are assumed to remain constant for the purposes of the populations projections contained
within this report.
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Projection of net migration
As difficult as the previous variables are to project, migration is likely even more difficult to gauge. As
the state’s previous population projections report stated following the release of the 2000 Census
results, “The only consistency in Oklahoma’s recent migration history has been its unpredictability.”
How volatile is this component of population growth? Between 1970 and 1983, Oklahoma’s overall
population growth rate grew at a heated pace, reaching peak annual growth of 3.6% in 1982. Some less
populated counties in eastern Oklahoma, driven in part by new oil discoveries and well construction,
experienced double digit annual percentage growth. Then by 1987 the state’s annual population growth
rate dropped to ‐1.3% and some of those same double digit growth counties were showing nearly
double digit declines. Appendix 3 shows more detailed information about the history of Oklahoma’s
components of population change, including net migration figures.
Between 1960 and 2011, Oklahoma’s population gain due to net migration averaged slightly over 10,000
people annually, with swings ranging from a gain of 80,500 in 1982 to a decline of 61,000 in 1987.
Ignoring the volatility found in the 1970s and 1980s, and limiting net migration to the 1990s and 2000s,
Oklahoma’s average annual net migration gain was just under 15,000. For this analysis, the state’s
annual population growth figure has been assumed to run at a consistent rate of adding 15,000 people
annually.
County population projections
County population projections were obtained using a more generalized process than the statewide
approach already outlined above. Linear regression trendline formulas, based on population patterns
from 1960 to 2011, were deemed sufficient to develop county population projections for 64 of
Oklahoma’s 77 counties. For the remaining 13 counties, straight linear regression formulas yielded
unrealistic population levels and another option needed to be used.
Linear models were judged to be insufficient for Alfalfa, Cimarron, Dewey, Ellis, Grant, Greer, Harmon,
Harper, Kiowa, Roger Mills, Tillman, Washita and Woods counties. For these counties, a curved, or
power, trendline was judged to be a better fit.
Statistically, trendline formulas have a measure of ‘fit’ known as the r‐squared value. The closer the r‐squared
value is to a value of one, the better the formula matches up with actual population figures.
Going one step further, the higher the r‐squared value, the better the assumed predictability of future
values. This report includes both the trendline formula used for each county’s population, plus the
associated r‐squared value as a measure of how well the formula fits the historic population levels and
how well the formula might predict future populations, all other things being held constant.
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Matching up the two methodologies
Statewide estimates have been developed using two different methods, each arriving at a similar
conclusion before balancing. With each method acting as a comparative “check” against the other, it is
believed these estimates are as accurate as possible, excluding any unforeseen changes in economic or
political condition.
When the Census Bureau develops annual population estimates based on birth, death and migration
data, they encounter situations where the sum of the parts doesn’t exactly equal the expected whole.
To resolve the issue, they use a balancing figure that effectively serves as a “margin of error” within
their birth, death and migration figures. This report used a similar approach to unify the results of the
statewide methodology with the county level methodology.
Summing county level population projections yielded a population total that was comfortably close to
the state level population projections, but there was a small degree of difference that necessitated a
slight population adjustment at the statewide level. Over the course of the 65 years between 2010 and
2075, the required adjustment averaged 0.2% of each year’s total population. This was deemed an
acceptable range of variation and was added into the statewide population total for balancing purposes.
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Oklahoma Statewide
Oklahoma’s statewide population projection was built using the sum of population projections for all 77
counties. Annual growth rates are forecast to average 0.73%. This is similar to the state’s average
annual growth rate of 0.80% over the last three decades, and equivalent to the US Census Bureau’s
forecast for the national growth rate through 2050.
The following pages contain tables showing Oklahoma’s statewide Decennial Census populations going
back to statehood; annual population estimates going back to 1960; population projections from 2012
to 2075; and population projections by 5 year age group through 2075 for males, females and the total
population.
Decennial Census population counts
Statewide
1910 1,657,155 1960 2,328,284 2010 3,751,351
1920 2,028,283 1970 2,559,229
1930 2,396,040 1980 3,025,290
1940 2,336,434 1990 3,145,585
1950 2,233,351 2000 3,450,654
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
5,560,007
1,657,155
2,028,283
2,396,040 2,336,434
2,233,351
2,328,284
2,559,229
3,025,290
3,145,585
3,450,654
3,751,351
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Oklahoma: Statewide Population
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Sum of Individual County Forecasts
Oklahoma Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Oklahoma Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Oklahoma Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
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Annual population estimates
Statewide
1960 2,328,284 1973 2,694,000 1986 3,252,735 1999 3,437,147
1961 2,380,000 1974 2,732,000 1987 3,210,124 2000 3,450,654
1962 2,427,000 1975 2,772,000 1988 3,167,064 2001 3,464,729
1963 2,439,000 1976 2,823,000 1989 3,150,304 2002 3,484,754
1964 2,446,000 1977 2,866,000 1990 3,145,585 2003 3,498,687
1965 2,440,000 1978 2,913,000 1991 3,175,440 2004 3,514,449
1966 2,454,000 1979 2,970,000 1992 3,220,517 2005 3,532,769
1967 2,489,000 1980 3,025,290 1993 3,252,285 2006 3,574,334
1968 2,503,000 1981 3,096,159 1994 3,280,940 2007 3,612,186
1969 2,535,000 1982 3,206,129 1995 3,308,208 2008 3,644,025
1970 2,559,229 1983 3,290,404 1996 3,340,129 2009 3,687,050
1971 2,618,000 1984 3,285,535 1997 3,372,917 2010 3,751,351
1972 2,657,000 1985 3,271,333 1998 3,405,194 2011 3,791,508
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Statewide
2012 3,802,027 2028 4,246,796 2044 4,692,968 2060 5,140,129
2013 3,829,773 2029 4,274,646 2045 4,720,889 2061 5,168,103
2014 3,857,527 2030 4,302,501 2046 4,748,815 2062 5,196,079
2015 3,885,288 2031 4,330,362 2047 4,776,744 2063 5,224,059
2016 3,913,057 2032 4,358,227 2048 4,804,677 2064 5,252,041
2017 3,940,833 2033 4,386,098 2049 4,832,614 2065 5,280,026
2018 3,968,616 2034 4,413,973 2050 4,860,554 2066 5,308,013
2019 3,996,406 2035 4,441,853 2051 4,888,497 2067 5,336,003
2020 4,024,202 2036 4,469,737 2052 4,916,443 2068 5,363,995
2021 4,052,005 2037 4,497,626 2053 4,944,393 2069 5,391,990
2022 4,079,814 2038 4,525,519 2054 4,972,346 2070 5,419,987
2023 4,107,630 2039 4,553,417 2055 5,000,303 2071 5,447,986
2024 4,135,452 2040 4,581,319 2056 5,028,262 2072 5,475,988
2025 4,163,279 2041 4,609,225 2057 5,056,224 2073 5,503,992
2026 4,191,113 2042 4,637,135 2058 5,084,190 2074 5,531,999
2027 4,218,952 2043 4,665,050 2059 5,112,158 2075 5,560,007
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
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Total Population – Statewide projections by age group
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Total Population 3,751,351 3,885,288 4,024,202 4,163,279 4,302,501 4,441,853 4,581,319
Age 00 to 04 264,126 261,386 264,575 269,470 275,542 282,544 290,154
Age 05 to 09 259,336 263,437 266,238 270,710 276,637 283,608 291,232
Age 10 to 14 253,664 261,538 266,890 271,867 277,785 284,698 292,299
Age 15 to 19 264,484 261,914 266,352 271,944 278,183 285,164 292,748
Age 20 to 24 269,242 266,144 267,166 271,732 277,957 285,046 292,669
Age 25 to 29 265,737 268,691 269,593 272,642 278,079 284,959 292,563
Age 30 to 34 241,018 260,416 268,635 273,335 278,514 284,988 292,389
Age 35 to 39 232,742 246,732 261,044 270,577 277,685 284,527 291,835
Age 40 to 44 228,195 236,035 249,520 262,713 273,261 281,935 289,892
Age 45 to 49 261,242 240,762 242,209 252,628 264,756 275,699 285,180
Age 50 to 54 264,369 251,815 243,014 245,286 254,499 265,831 276,687
Age 55 to 59 235,969 247,936 244,211 241,509 245,355 254,134 264,756
Age 60 to 64 204,513 225,559 234,502 235,164 236,262 241,382 249,845
Age 65 to 69 159,392 189,604 209,531 218,798 222,379 225,851 231,690
Age 70 to 74 121,075 147,839 172,262 189,090 198,245 203,305 207,932
Age 75 to 79 95,051 109,135 129,623 148,434 161,786 169,841 175,029
Age 80 to 84 69,284 76,690 89,559 104,846 118,339 127,972 134,140
Age 85+ 61,912 69,655 79,277 92,534 107,240 120,368 130,281
2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075
Total Population 4,720,889 4,860,554 5,000,303 5,140,129 5,280,026 5,419,987 5,560,007
Age 00 to 04 298,074 306,136 314,281 322,514 330,854 339,304 347,853
Age 05 to 09 299,194 307,302 315,488 323,754 332,121 340,599 349,177
Age 10 to 14 300,272 308,414 316,641 324,945 333,343 341,849 350,455
Age 15 to 19 300,700 308,838 317,077 325,399 333,815 342,333 350,949
Age 20 to 24 300,609 308,725 316,949 325,267 333,684 342,203 350,816
Age 25 to 29 300,503 308,605 316,812 325,117 333,529 342,045 350,657
Age 30 to 34 300,256 308,326 316,506 324,789 333,184 341,689 350,293
Age 35 to 39 299,572 307,556 315,680 323,917 332,273 340,747 349,324
Age 40 to 44 297,743 305,671 313,709 321,863 330,142 338,545 347,057
Age 45 to 49 293,738 301,880 309,907 317,969 326,131 334,413 342,806
Age 50 to 54 286,389 295,158 303,407 311,459 319,503 327,620 335,832
Age 55 to 59 275,187 284,726 293,445 301,659 309,653 317,601 325,586
Age 60 to 64 259,693 269,469 278,587 287,047 295,065 302,860 310,576
Age 65 to 69 239,684 248,647 257,595 266,080 274,061 281,670 289,062
Age 70 to 74 213,867 221,137 229,054 236,977 244,580 251,801 258,716
Age 75 to 79 179,739 185,158 191,378 198,003 204,624 211,015 217,121
Age 80 to 84 138,485 142,507 146,935 151,829 156,947 162,035 166,952
Age 85+ 137,183 142,298 146,852 151,538 156,516 161,658 166,777
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MALE Population – Statewide projections by age group
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Male Population 1,856,977 1,929,481 2,001,017 2,071,124 2,140,913 2,210,927 2,281,243
Age 00 to 04 134,700 133,680 135,435 137,976 141,094 144,683 148,579
Age 05 to 09 132,918 134,726 136,213 138,567 141,637 145,221 149,130
Age 10 to 14 130,260 133,991 136,582 139,124 142,184 145,750 149,656
Age 15 to 19 135,644 134,241 136,311 139,057 142,220 145,800 149,695
Age 20 to 24 137,934 136,231 136,598 138,766 141,841 145,421 149,306
Age 25 to 29 135,908 137,362 137,713 139,117 141,745 145,155 148,982
Age 30 to 34 122,914 132,910 137,067 139,359 141,857 145,022 148,694
Age 35 to 39 117,446 125,315 132,861 137,746 141,286 144,644 148,238
Age 40 to 44 114,943 119,224 126,410 133,308 138,707 143,051 146,982
Age 45 to 49 129,816 120,473 121,775 127,427 133,766 139,357 144,107
Age 50 to 54 129,931 124,405 120,741 122,465 127,493 133,406 138,932
Age 55 to 59 114,982 121,005 119,651 118,912 121,367 126,131 131,646
Age 60 to 64 98,601 108,785 113,277 113,974 115,015 118,019 122,554
Age 65 to 69 75,279 90,017 99,597 104,158 106,176 108,271 111,522
Age 70 to 74 55,836 68,622 80,177 88,073 92,444 95,052 97,578
Age 75 to 79 41,390 48,833 58,585 67,260 73,333 77,049 79,590
Age 80 to 84 28,049 32,509 38,887 45,933 51,937 56,155 58,900
Age 85+ 20,426 27,154 33,139 39,903 46,810 52,741 57,153
2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075
Male Population 2,351,666 2,421,964 2,491,988 2,561,719 2,631,226 2,700,613 2,769,983
Age 00 to 04 152,629 156,755 160,923 165,137 169,405 173,728 178,107
Age 05 to 09 153,205 157,353 161,542 165,771 170,053 174,391 178,782
Age 10 to 14 153,743 157,911 162,120 166,368 170,665 175,017 179,420
Age 15 to 19 153,773 157,939 162,152 166,405 170,705 175,058 179,462
Age 20 to 24 153,365 157,513 161,712 165,956 170,248 174,591 178,983
Age 25 to 29 153,011 157,137 161,319 165,549 169,832 174,167 178,549
Age 30 to 34 152,642 156,722 160,874 165,083 169,350 173,672 178,044
Age 35 to 39 152,077 156,074 160,168 164,335 168,570 172,867 177,217
Age 40 to 44 150,852 154,781 158,793 162,887 167,060 171,305 175,608
Age 45 to 49 148,340 152,352 156,319 160,326 164,405 168,560 172,781
Age 50 to 54 143,777 148,101 152,149 156,108 160,081 164,110 168,201
Age 55 to 59 136,923 141,657 145,929 149,933 153,832 157,723 161,650
Age 60 to 64 127,624 132,526 137,009 141,115 144,984 148,746 152,482
Age 65 to 69 115,731 120,283 124,708 128,821 132,640 136,259 139,774
Age 70 to 74 100,747 104,482 108,419 112,255 115,863 119,246 122,465
Age 75 to 79 82,018 84,794 87,889 91,086 94,199 97,143 99,921
Age 80 to 84 60,946 62,928 65,103 67,446 69,825 72,130 74,315
Age 85+ 60,261 62,655 64,861 67,136 69,508 71,898 74,223
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FEMALE Population – Statewide projections by age group
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Female Population 1,894,374 1,955,807 2,023,185 2,092,155 2,161,589 2,230,925 2,300,076
Age 00 to 04 129,426 127,706 129,141 131,494 134,447 137,862 141,576
Age 05 to 09 126,418 128,711 130,025 132,142 135,000 138,387 142,103
Age 10 to 14 123,404 127,547 130,309 132,743 135,600 138,948 142,643
Age 15 to 19 128,840 127,673 130,041 132,887 135,963 139,363 143,053
Age 20 to 24 131,308 129,914 130,568 132,966 136,115 139,626 143,363
Age 25 to 29 129,829 131,329 131,880 133,525 136,334 139,804 143,581
Age 30 to 34 118,104 127,507 131,567 133,976 136,657 139,966 143,695
Age 35 to 39 115,296 121,417 128,184 132,831 136,399 139,883 143,597
Age 40 to 44 113,252 116,811 123,110 129,405 134,554 138,884 142,910
Age 45 to 49 131,426 120,289 120,435 125,202 130,990 136,342 141,073
Age 50 to 54 134,438 127,410 122,274 122,821 127,006 132,425 137,755
Age 55 to 59 120,987 126,931 124,560 122,597 123,988 128,003 133,110
Age 60 to 64 105,912 116,774 121,225 121,191 121,247 123,364 127,291
Age 65 to 69 84,113 99,587 109,934 114,640 116,203 117,580 120,168
Age 70 to 74 65,239 79,217 92,085 101,017 105,800 108,253 110,353
Age 75 to 79 53,661 60,301 71,038 81,174 88,452 92,792 95,439
Age 80 to 84 41,235 44,181 50,672 58,912 66,402 71,816 75,240
Age 85+ 41,486 42,500 46,138 52,631 60,430 67,627 73,129
2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075
Female Population 2,369,224 2,438,590 2,508,315 2,578,410 2,648,800 2,719,373 2,790,024
Age 00 to 04 145,445 149,381 153,358 157,377 161,449 165,576 169,746
Age 05 to 09 145,989 149,949 153,947 157,983 162,068 166,207 170,395
Age 10 to 14 146,529 150,503 154,521 158,577 162,678 166,832 171,034
Age 15 to 19 146,927 150,899 154,925 158,994 163,110 167,275 171,487
Age 20 to 24 147,244 151,212 155,237 159,312 163,437 167,612 171,833
Age 25 to 29 147,492 151,468 155,493 159,568 163,697 167,879 172,108
Age 30 to 34 147,614 151,603 155,632 159,706 163,834 168,017 172,249
Age 35 to 39 147,495 151,482 155,512 159,583 163,703 167,880 172,107
Age 40 to 44 146,891 150,890 154,916 158,977 163,082 167,240 171,448
Age 45 to 49 145,398 149,528 153,588 157,643 161,726 165,853 170,025
Age 50 to 54 142,612 147,057 151,258 155,351 159,422 163,510 167,630
Age 55 to 59 138,264 143,069 147,516 151,727 155,821 159,878 163,935
Age 60 to 64 132,069 136,943 141,578 145,932 150,081 154,113 158,094
Age 65 to 69 123,953 128,364 132,887 137,259 141,421 145,411 149,289
Age 70 to 74 113,121 116,655 120,635 124,722 128,716 132,555 136,250
Age 75 to 79 97,721 100,363 103,489 106,916 110,426 113,872 117,200
Age 80 to 84 77,539 79,579 81,832 84,383 87,121 89,905 92,637
Age 85+ 76,922 79,642 81,991 84,402 87,008 89,760 92,555
14 | P a g e
Adair County
Adair County’s population is forecast to grow at approximately 0.78% on an average annual basis over
the next 65 years. This forecast was developed using a linear regression trendline based on the county’s
population change between 1960 and 2010. The regression formula appears to have a strong degree of
fit, with only limited year to year variation from forecasts expected.
Decennial Census population counts
Adair
1910 10,535 1960 13,112 2010 22,683
1920 13,703 1970 15,141
1930 14,756 1980 18,575
1940 15,755 1990 18,421
1950 14,918 2000 21,038
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
10,535
13,703
14,756
15,755
14,918
13,112
15,141
18,575 18,421
21,038
22,683
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Adair County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Adair County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Adair Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Adair Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
15 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Adair
1960 13,112 1973 16,700 1986 18,557 1999 20,904
1961 13,400 1974 16,800 1987 18,815 2000 21,038
1962 13,800 1975 17,100 1988 18,771 2001 21,066
1963 14,000 1976 17,300 1989 18,516 2002 21,179
1964 14,100 1977 17,700 1990 18,421 2003 21,285
1965 14,100 1978 18,200 1991 18,844 2004 21,371
1966 14,300 1979 18,700 1992 19,178 2005 21,599
1967 14,500 1980 18,575 1993 19,483 2006 21,858
1968 14,700 1981 18,258 1994 19,784 2007 21,938
1969 14,900 1982 18,437 1995 19,933 2008 21,857
1970 15,141 1983 18,845 1996 20,182 2009 21,857
1971 15,500 1984 18,369 1997 20,421 2010 22,683
1972 16,300 1985 18,357 1998 20,748 2011 22,612
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Adair
2012 23,029 2028 25,855 2044 28,682 2060 31,508
2013 23,206 2029 26,032 2045 28,858 2061 31,685
2014 23,382 2030 26,209 2046 29,035 2062 31,861
2015 23,559 2031 26,385 2047 29,212 2063 32,038
2016 23,736 2032 26,562 2048 29,388 2064 32,215
2017 23,912 2033 26,739 2049 29,565 2065 32,391
2018 24,089 2034 26,915 2050 29,742 2066 32,568
2019 24,266 2035 27,092 2051 29,918 2067 32,745
2020 24,442 2036 27,269 2052 30,095 2068 32,921
2021 24,619 2037 27,445 2053 30,272 2069 33,098
2022 24,796 2038 27,622 2054 30,448 2070 33,275
2023 24,972 2039 27,799 2055 30,625 2071 33,451
2024 25,149 2040 27,975 2056 30,802 2072 33,628
2025 25,326 2041 28,152 2057 30,978 2073 33,805
2026 25,502 2042 28,329 2058 31,155 2074 33,981
2027 25,679 2043 28,505 2059 31,332 2075 34,158
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
16 | P a g e
Alfalfa County
Alfalfa County is forecast to experience a slowing rate of population decline over the next 65 years.
While a higher rate of decline is expected in the immediate term, later decades are expected to
experience lower rates of decline. Over the full 65 year span, the decline is forecast to average an
annual rate of ‐0.37%. A power regression trendline based on the county’s population patterns over the
last 50 years indicates a strong degree of fit, with only a limited amount of year to year variation
expected.
Decennial Census population counts
Alfalfa
1910 18,138 1960 8,445 2010 5,642
1920 16,253 1970 7,224
1930 15,228 1980 7,077
1940 14,129 1990 6,416
1950 10,699 2000 6,105
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
18,138
16,253
15,228
14,129
10,699
8,445
7,224
7,077
6,416 6,105 5,642
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
21000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Alfalfa County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Power Trend From 1960 to 2011
Alfalfa County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Alfalfa Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Alfalfa Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Power Trendline
17 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Alfalfa
1960 8,445 1973 7,000 1986 7,222 1999 6,125
1961 8,400 1974 7,000 1987 6,979 2000 6,105
1962 8,300 1975 7,200 1988 6,637 2001 5,926
1963 8,200 1976 7,200 1989 6,575 2002 5,886
1964 8,000 1977 7,200 1990 6,416 2003 5,800
1965 7,900 1978 7,300 1991 6,367 2004 5,748
1966 7,600 1979 7,200 1992 6,327 2005 5,656
1967 7,600 1980 7,077 1993 6,309 2006 5,584
1968 7,400 1981 7,235 1994 6,291 2007 5,571
1969 7,300 1982 7,380 1995 6,275 2008 5,565
1970 7,224 1983 7,519 1996 6,291 2009 5,481
1971 7,200 1984 7,324 1997 6,247 2010 5,642
1972 7,100 1985 7,197 1998 6,244 2011 5,662
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Alfalfa
2012 5,638 2028 5,196 2044 4,837 2060 4,540
2013 5,607 2029 5,171 2045 4,817 2061 4,523
2014 5,577 2030 5,147 2046 4,797 2062 4,507
2015 5,547 2031 5,123 2047 4,778 2063 4,490
2016 5,518 2032 5,099 2048 4,758 2064 4,474
2017 5,489 2033 5,076 2049 4,739 2065 4,457
2018 5,460 2034 5,053 2050 4,720 2066 4,441
2019 5,432 2035 5,030 2051 4,701 2067 4,425
2020 5,404 2036 5,008 2052 4,682 2068 4,409
2021 5,377 2037 4,986 2053 4,664 2069 4,394
2022 5,350 2038 4,964 2054 4,646 2070 4,378
2023 5,323 2039 4,942 2055 4,628 2071 4,363
2024 5,297 2040 4,921 2056 4,610 2072 4,348
2025 5,271 2041 4,899 2057 4,592 2073 4,333
2026 5,246 2042 4,879 2058 4,575 2074 4,318
2027 5,221 2043 4,858 2059 4,557 2075 4,303
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
18 | P a g e
Atoka County
Atoka County is forecast to experience population growth rates slightly below the state population
growth level over the next 65 years. Between 2010 and 2075, Atoka County’s expected average annual
growth rate is 0.58%. A linear regression trendline based on the county’s population patterns over the
last 50 years indicates a strong degree of fit, with slight population variation expected from year to year.
Decennial Census population counts
Atoka
1910 13,808 1960 10,352 2010 14,182
1920 20,862 1970 10,972
1930 14,533 1980 12,748
1940 18,702 1990 12,778
1950 14,269 2000 13,879
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
13,808
20,862
14,533
18,702
14,269
10,352
10,972
12,748 12,778
13,879
14,182
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Atoka County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Atoka County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Atoka Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Atoka Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
19 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Atoka
1960 10,352 1973 11,600 1986 13,317 1999 13,856
1961 10,500 1974 11,900 1987 13,175 2000 13,879
1962 10,700 1975 12,100 1988 12,979 2001 13,896
1963 10,700 1976 12,100 1989 12,881 2002 13,987
1964 10,700 1977 12,300 1990 12,778 2003 14,155
1965 10,600 1978 12,300 1991 12,866 2004 14,290
1966 10,600 1979 12,600 1992 13,172 2005 14,288
1967 10,700 1980 12,748 1993 13,260 2006 14,308
1968 10,800 1981 12,713 1994 13,336 2007 14,453
1969 10,900 1982 12,811 1995 13,553 2008 14,573
1970 10,972 1983 13,548 1996 13,572 2009 14,498
1971 11,200 1984 13,674 1997 13,785 2010 14,182
1972 11,400 1985 13,599 1998 13,749 2011 14,206
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Atoka
2012 14,238 2028 15,581 2044 16,925 2060 18,268
2013 14,322 2029 15,665 2045 17,009 2061 18,352
2014 14,406 2030 15,749 2046 17,093 2062 18,436
2015 14,490 2031 15,833 2047 17,176 2063 18,520
2016 14,574 2032 15,917 2048 17,260 2064 18,604
2017 14,658 2033 16,001 2049 17,344 2065 18,688
2018 14,742 2034 16,085 2050 17,428 2066 18,772
2019 14,826 2035 16,169 2051 17,512 2067 18,855
2020 14,910 2036 16,253 2052 17,596 2068 18,939
2021 14,994 2037 16,337 2053 17,680 2069 19,023
2022 15,078 2038 16,421 2054 17,764 2070 19,107
2023 15,162 2039 16,505 2055 17,848 2071 19,191
2024 15,246 2040 16,589 2056 17,932 2072 19,275
2025 15,330 2041 16,673 2057 18,016 2073 19,359
2026 15,414 2042 16,757 2058 18,100 2074 19,443
2027 15,498 2043 16,841 2059 18,184 2075 19,527
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
20 | P a g e
Beaver County
Beaver County’s population is forecast to experience an average annual rate of decline of ‐0.49% over
the next 65 years. However, a linear regression trendline based on the county’s population patterns
over the last 50 years shows some degree of uncertainty. Actual year to year population numbers may
swing higher or lower than expected, but the overall trend is likely to remain in the general direction of
the overall trendline.
Decennial Census population counts
Beaver
1910 13,631 1960 6,965 2010 5,636
1920 14,048 1970 6,282
1930 11,452 1980 6,806
1940 8,648 1990 6,023
1950 7,411 2000 5,857
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
13,631
14,048
11,452
8,648
7,411
6,965
6,282 6,806
6,023 5,857 5,636
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Beaver County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Beaver County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Beaver Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Beaver Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
21 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Beaver
1960 6,965 1973 5,900 1986 6,890 1999 6,024
1961 7,000 1974 5,800 1987 6,577 2000 5,857
1962 7,000 1975 5,900 1988 6,353 2001 5,641
1963 6,800 1976 5,900 1989 6,204 2002 5,564
1964 6,800 1977 6,000 1990 6,023 2003 5,519
1965 6,600 1978 6,300 1991 5,969 2004 5,452
1966 6,500 1979 6,500 1992 5,869 2005 5,403
1967 6,500 1980 6,806 1993 5,854 2006 5,313
1968 6,400 1981 6,955 1994 5,880 2007 5,325
1969 6,300 1982 7,129 1995 5,908 2008 5,242
1970 6,282 1983 7,164 1996 5,921 2009 5,270
1971 6,300 1984 7,093 1997 5,928 2010 5,636
1972 6,100 1985 6,971 1998 6,039 2011 5,624
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Beaver
2012 5,483 2028 5,064 2044 4,645 2060 4,225
2013 5,457 2029 5,038 2045 4,618 2061 4,199
2014 5,431 2030 5,012 2046 4,592 2062 4,173
2015 5,405 2031 4,985 2047 4,566 2063 4,147
2016 5,379 2032 4,959 2048 4,540 2064 4,120
2017 5,352 2033 4,933 2049 4,514 2065 4,094
2018 5,326 2034 4,907 2050 4,487 2066 4,068
2019 5,300 2035 4,881 2051 4,461 2067 4,042
2020 5,274 2036 4,854 2052 4,435 2068 4,016
2021 5,247 2037 4,828 2053 4,409 2069 3,989
2022 5,221 2038 4,802 2054 4,383 2070 3,963
2023 5,195 2039 4,776 2055 4,356 2071 3,937
2024 5,169 2040 4,750 2056 4,330 2072 3,911
2025 5,143 2041 4,723 2057 4,304 2073 3,885
2026 5,116 2042 4,697 2058 4,278 2074 3,858
2027 5,090 2043 4,671 2059 4,252 2075 3,832
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
22 | P a g e
Beckham County
Beckham County’s population is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 0.38% over the next 65
years. Volatility in the county’s population over the last 50 years, historically influenced by
developments in the energy sector, reduces the overall fit of this county’s linear regression trendline.
Up and down swings in population from year to year are expected to continue, much like they have
since 1960. However, the long‐term growth trend is expected to generally follow the levels indicated by
the graph above.
Decennial Census population counts
Beckham
1910 19,699 1960 17,782 2010 22,119
1920 18,989 1970 15,754
1930 28,991 1980 19,243
1940 22,169 1990 18,812
1950 21,627 2000 19,799
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
19,699
18,989
28,991
22,169
21,627
17,782
15,754
19,243 18,812
19,799
22,119
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Beckham County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Beckham County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Beckham Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Beckham Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
23 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Beckham
1960 17,782 1973 15,600 1986 21,114 1999 19,957
1961 17,800 1974 15,900 1987 19,551 2000 19,799
1962 17,600 1975 16,100 1988 19,290 2001 19,778
1963 17,500 1976 15,900 1989 19,001 2002 19,849
1964 17,200 1977 16,400 1990 18,812 2003 19,205
1965 16,800 1978 17,100 1991 18,789 2004 18,164
1966 16,500 1979 18,300 1992 18,685 2005 18,630
1967 16,300 1980 19,243 1993 18,579 2006 19,315
1968 16,100 1981 21,010 1994 18,799 2007 20,787
1969 15,900 1982 25,027 1995 18,969 2008 21,494
1970 15,754 1983 26,383 1996 18,971 2009 21,116
1971 15,800 1984 23,502 1997 18,885 2010 22,119
1972 15,500 1985 22,160 1998 19,442 2011 22,288
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Beckham
2012 22,155 2028 23,543 2044 24,931 2060 26,318
2013 22,242 2029 23,630 2045 25,017 2061 26,405
2014 22,329 2030 23,716 2046 25,104 2062 26,492
2015 22,415 2031 23,803 2047 25,191 2063 26,579
2016 22,502 2032 23,890 2048 25,278 2064 26,665
2017 22,589 2033 23,977 2049 25,364 2065 26,752
2018 22,676 2034 24,063 2050 25,451 2066 26,839
2019 22,762 2035 24,150 2051 25,538 2067 26,925
2020 22,849 2036 24,237 2052 25,624 2068 27,012
2021 22,936 2037 24,323 2053 25,711 2069 27,099
2022 23,022 2038 24,410 2054 25,798 2070 27,186
2023 23,109 2039 24,497 2055 25,885 2071 27,272
2024 23,196 2040 24,584 2056 25,971 2072 27,359
2025 23,283 2041 24,670 2057 26,058 2073 27,446
2026 23,369 2042 24,757 2058 26,145 2074 27,533
2027 23,456 2043 24,844 2059 26,232 2075 27,619
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
24 | P a g e
Blaine County
In 2010, after 12 years of operation, a large private contract correctional facility in Blaine County closed.
Those inmates represented approximately one sixth of the county’s population before being transferred
to other facilities. Efforts to reopen the prison continue but are uncertain at this point. Population
forecasts for Blaine County assume the prison remains closed. There is a high level of long term
uncertainty associated with projections for Blaine County.
Decennial Census population counts
Blaine
1910 17,960 1960 12,077 2010 11,943
1920 15,875 1970 11,794
1930 20,452 1980 13,443
1940 18,543 1990 11,470
1950 15,049 2000 11,976
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
9,780
17,960
15,875
20,452
18,543
15,049
12,077 11,794
13,443
11,470 11,976 11,943
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Blaine County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2010
Blaine County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Blaine Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Blaine Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
25 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Blaine
1960 12,077 1973 12,200 1986 13,116 1999 11,882
1961 12,200 1974 12,300 1987 12,641 2000 11,976
1962 12,300 1975 12,500 1988 12,185 2001 12,022
1963 12,200 1976 12,800 1989 11,824 2002 11,628
1964 12,100 1977 12,900 1990 11,470 2003 11,188
1965 11,900 1978 13,000 1991 11,655 2004 12,702
1966 11,800 1979 13,400 1992 11,544 2005 12,748
1967 11,900 1980 13,443 1993 11,565 2006 12,493
1968 11,800 1981 14,215 1994 11,687 2007 12,607
1969 11,800 1982 14,968 1995 11,821 2008 12,668
1970 11,794 1983 14,653 1996 11,778 2009 12,609
1971 12,200 1984 14,026 1997 11,884 2010 11,943
1972 12,200 1985 13,558 1998 11,832 2011 9,780
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Blaine
2012 9,889 2028 9,740 2044 9,590 2060 9,441
2013 9,880 2029 9,730 2045 9,581 2061 9,432
2014 9,870 2030 9,721 2046 9,572 2062 9,422
2015 9,861 2031 9,712 2047 9,562 2063 9,413
2016 9,852 2032 9,702 2048 9,553 2064 9,404
2017 9,842 2033 9,693 2049 9,544 2065 9,394
2018 9,833 2034 9,684 2050 9,534 2066 9,385
2019 9,824 2035 9,674 2051 9,525 2067 9,376
2020 9,814 2036 9,665 2052 9,516 2068 9,366
2021 9,805 2037 9,656 2053 9,506 2069 9,357
2022 9,796 2038 9,646 2054 9,497 2070 9,348
2023 9,786 2039 9,637 2055 9,488 2071 9,338
2024 9,777 2040 9,628 2056 9,478 2072 9,329
2025 9,768 2041 9,618 2057 9,469 2073 9,320
2026 9,758 2042 9,609 2058 9,460 2074 9,310
2027 9,749 2043 9,600 2059 9,450 2075 9,301
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
26 | P a g e
Bryan County
Bryan County’s population is forecast to average a 0.80% annual growth rate over the next 65 years.
While Bryan County has shown an unusually high rate of growth over the last five years, expanding by an
average annual rate of 2.1%, the long term trend is expected to level off. The linear regression trendline
shows a strong degree of fit and should be a good predictor of county growth patterns.
Decennial Census population counts
Bryan
1910 29,854 1960 24,252 2010 42,416
1920 40,700 1970 25,552
1930 32,277 1980 30,535
1940 38,138 1990 32,089
1950 28,999 2000 36,534
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
29,854
40,700
32,277
38,138
28,999
24,252
25,552
30,535
32,089
36,534
42,416
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Bryan County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Bryan County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Bryan Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Bryan Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
27 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Bryan
1960 24,252 1973 26,700 1986 32,468 1999 36,182
1961 24,700 1974 27,300 1987 32,877 2000 36,534
1962 25,000 1975 27,600 1988 32,273 2001 36,462
1963 25,000 1976 28,200 1989 31,933 2002 36,768
1964 25,000 1977 28,800 1990 32,089 2003 36,872
1965 24,800 1978 29,200 1991 32,335 2004 37,367
1966 24,900 1979 30,100 1992 32,761 2005 37,658
1967 25,100 1980 30,535 1993 33,523 2006 38,956
1968 25,200 1981 30,474 1994 33,789 2007 39,474
1969 25,400 1982 30,527 1995 34,370 2008 40,463
1970 25,552 1983 31,411 1996 34,675 2009 40,783
1971 26,200 1984 32,008 1997 35,299 2010 42,416
1972 26,400 1985 32,201 1998 35,887 2011 43,089
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Bryan
2012 43,002 2028 48,481 2044 53,959 2060 59,438
2013 43,344 2029 48,823 2045 54,302 2061 59,780
2014 43,687 2030 49,166 2046 54,644 2062 60,123
2015 44,029 2031 49,508 2047 54,987 2063 60,465
2016 44,372 2032 49,850 2048 55,329 2064 60,808
2017 44,714 2033 50,193 2049 55,671 2065 61,150
2018 45,057 2034 50,535 2050 56,014 2066 61,492
2019 45,399 2035 50,878 2051 56,356 2067 61,835
2020 45,741 2036 51,220 2052 56,699 2068 62,177
2021 46,084 2037 51,562 2053 57,041 2069 62,520
2022 46,426 2038 51,905 2054 57,383 2070 62,862
2023 46,769 2039 52,247 2055 57,726 2071 63,204
2024 47,111 2040 52,590 2056 58,068 2072 63,547
2025 47,453 2041 52,932 2057 58,411 2073 63,889
2026 47,796 2042 53,274 2058 58,753 2074 64,232
2027 48,138 2043 53,617 2059 59,095 2075 64,574
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
28 | P a g e
Caddo County
Caddo County’s population growth rate has been relatively flat since 1960, with a 0.07% growth rate and
a small degree of volatility in the total population count. A linear regression trendline based on
population patterns over the last 50 years indicates that this flat rate of growth will continue between
now and 2075, growing at an average annual rate of 0.06%. While the exact population counts from
year to year may show variation up and down from these projections, the population as a whole is
expected to remain relatively stable.
Decennial Census population counts
Caddo
1910 35,685 1960 28,621 2010 29,600
1920 34,207 1970 28,931
1930 50,779 1980 30,905
1940 41,567 1990 29,550
1950 34,913 2000 30,150
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
35,685
34,207
50,779
41,567
34,913
28,621 28,931
30,905
29,550 30,150 29,600
0
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
37,500
45,000
52,500
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Caddo County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Caddo County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Caddo Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Caddo Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
29 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Caddo
1960 28,621 1973 30,300 1986 31,966 1999 30,257
1961 29,000 1974 30,700 1987 31,438 2000 30,150
1962 29,300 1975 31,000 1988 30,897 2001 29,874
1963 29,300 1976 31,500 1989 30,106 2002 29,828
1964 29,100 1977 31,700 1990 29,550 2003 29,925
1965 28,800 1978 32,000 1991 29,072 2004 29,903
1966 28,800 1979 30,900 1992 29,685 2005 29,689
1967 28,900 1980 30,905 1993 29,757 2006 29,637
1968 28,800 1981 31,803 1994 29,954 2007 28,479
1969 28,900 1982 33,479 1995 30,327 2008 29,329
1970 28,931 1983 34,592 1996 30,404 2009 30,393
1971 29,700 1984 33,475 1997 30,500 2010 29,600
1972 30,100 1985 32,664 1998 30,483 2011 29,537
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Caddo
2012 30,407 2028 30,490 2044 30,573 2060 30,656
2013 30,412 2029 30,495 2045 30,578 2061 30,661
2014 30,417 2030 30,500 2046 30,583 2062 30,666
2015 30,422 2031 30,505 2047 30,588 2063 30,671
2016 30,428 2032 30,510 2048 30,593 2064 30,676
2017 30,433 2033 30,516 2049 30,599 2065 30,681
2018 30,438 2034 30,521 2050 30,604 2066 30,687
2019 30,443 2035 30,526 2051 30,609 2067 30,692
2020 30,448 2036 30,531 2052 30,614 2068 30,697
2021 30,453 2037 30,536 2053 30,619 2069 30,702
2022 30,459 2038 30,542 2054 30,624 2070 30,707
2023 30,464 2039 30,547 2055 30,630 2071 30,713
2024 30,469 2040 30,552 2056 30,635 2072 30,718
2025 30,474 2041 30,557 2057 30,640 2073 30,723
2026 30,479 2042 30,562 2058 30,645 2074 30,728
2027 30,485 2043 30,567 2059 30,650 2075 30,733
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
30 | P a g e
Canadian County
Canadian County’s population has grown by an annual average 3.8% over the last 5 years, far outpacing
growth rates for the state as a whole. Over the next 65 years, Canadian County is forecast to experience
an average annual 1.55% growth rate, based on a linear regression trendline of population data since
1960. The level of overall fit is considered strong, but some year to year variation from the forecast is
expected.
Decennial Census population counts
Canadian
1910 23,501 1960 24,727 2010 115,541
1920 22,288 1970 32,245
1930 28,115 1980 56,452
1940 27,329 1990 74,409
1950 25,644 2000 87,697
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
23,5012 2,288
28,115 27,329 25,644 24,727
32,245
56,452
74,409
87,697
115,541
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Canadian County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Canadian County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Canadian Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Canadian Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
31 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Canadian
1960 24,727 1973 39,800 1986 73,234 1999 86,306
1961 25,800 1974 42,400 1987 73,251 2000 87,697
1962 26,700 1975 43,700 1988 72,898 2001 89,521
1963 27,300 1976 45,200 1989 73,637 2002 90,699
1964 27,900 1977 47,300 1990 74,409 2003 92,230
1965 28,300 1978 50,100 1991 75,871 2004 94,501
1966 29,000 1979 54,800 1992 77,063 2005 97,147
1967 29,900 1980 56,452 1993 78,668 2006 100,421
1968 30,600 1981 60,110 1994 79,911 2007 103,948
1969 31,500 1982 64,245 1995 81,245 2008 106,755
1970 32,245 1983 67,279 1996 83,015 2009 109,668
1971 33,800 1984 69,888 1997 84,186 2010 115,541
1972 36,500 1985 71,931 1998 85,266 2011 119,492
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Canadian
2012 119,090 2028 147,846 2044 176,602 2060 205,357
2013 120,887 2029 149,643 2045 178,399 2061 207,155
2014 122,684 2030 151,440 2046 180,196 2062 208,952
2015 124,481 2031 153,237 2047 181,993 2063 210,749
2016 126,279 2032 155,035 2048 183,791 2064 212,546
2017 128,076 2033 156,832 2049 185,588 2065 214,344
2018 129,873 2034 158,629 2050 187,385 2066 216,141
2019 131,670 2035 160,426 2051 189,182 2067 217,938
2020 133,468 2036 162,224 2052 190,980 2068 219,735
2021 135,265 2037 164,021 2053 192,777 2069 221,533
2022 137,062 2038 165,818 2054 194,574 2070 223,330
2023 138,859 2039 167,615 2055 196,371 2071 225,127
2024 140,657 2040 169,413 2056 198,169 2072 226,924
2025 142,454 2041 171,210 2057 199,966 2073 228,722
2026 144,251 2042 173,007 2058 201,763 2074 230,519
2027 146,048 2043 174,804 2059 203,560 2075 232,316
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
32 | P a g e
Carter County
Over the next 65 years, Carter County’s population is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of
0.43%. This is virtually equal to the 0.44% average annual rate experienced since 1960 and only slightly
below the 0.54% average annual population growth rate experienced over the last two decades. While
population volatility in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s reduces the overall fit of the linear regression
trendline and may indicate some year to year variation for long term forecasts, the variation is expected
to balance out over time.
Decennial Census population counts
Carter
1910 25,358 1960 39,044 2010 47,557
1920 40,247 1970 37,349
1930 41,419 1980 43,610
1940 43,292 1990 42,919
1950 36,455 2000 45,621
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
25,358
40,247 41,419
43,292
36,455
39,044
37,349
43,610 42,919
45,621
47,557
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Carter County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Carter County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Carter Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Carter Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
33 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Carter
1960 39,044 1973 39,800 1986 46,770 1999 45,578
1961 39,300 1974 40,800 1987 45,549 2000 45,621
1962 39,500 1975 41,700 1988 44,020 2001 45,595
1963 39,200 1976 42,300 1989 43,242 2002 45,887
1964 38,800 1977 42,900 1990 42,919 2003 46,150
1965 38,100 1978 43,000 1991 42,833 2004 46,604
1966 37,700 1979 42,800 1992 43,309 2005 46,632
1967 37,800 1980 43,610 1993 43,809 2006 46,980
1968 37,500 1981 44,184 1994 44,061 2007 47,287
1969 37,400 1982 46,062 1995 44,488 2008 47,716
1970 37,349 1983 46,816 1996 44,706 2009 48,326
1971 38,700 1984 46,824 1997 45,035 2010 47,557
1972 39,200 1985 46,907 1998 45,223 2011 48,096
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Carter
2012 48,495 2028 51,635 2044 54,775 2060 57,915
2013 48,691 2029 51,831 2045 54,971 2061 58,111
2014 48,887 2030 52,027 2046 55,167 2062 58,307
2015 49,083 2031 52,223 2047 55,363 2063 58,503
2016 49,280 2032 52,420 2048 55,560 2064 58,700
2017 49,476 2033 52,616 2049 55,756 2065 58,896
2018 49,672 2034 52,812 2050 55,952 2066 59,092
2019 49,868 2035 53,008 2051 56,148 2067 59,288
2020 50,065 2036 53,205 2052 56,345 2068 59,485
2021 50,261 2037 53,401 2053 56,541 2069 59,681
2022 50,457 2038 53,597 2054 56,737 2070 59,877
2023 50,653 2039 53,793 2055 56,933 2071 60,073
2024 50,850 2040 53,990 2056 57,130 2072 60,270
2025 51,046 2041 54,186 2057 57,326 2073 60,466
2026 51,242 2042 54,382 2058 57,522 2074 60,662
2027 51,438 2043 54,578 2059 57,718 2075 60,858
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
34 | P a g e
Cherokee County
Cherokee County is forecast to average 1.27% annual growth between 2010 and 2075, with steady
growth being the norm. The linear regression trendline shows an excellent, near exact fit over the last
50 years, and actual population growth patterns are expected to remain very tight around long range
forecasts.
Decennial Census population counts
Cherokee
1910 16,778 1960 17,762 2010 46,987
1920 19,872 1970 23,174
1930 17,470 1980 30,684
1940 21,030 1990 34,049
1950 18,989 2000 42,521
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
16,778
19,872
17,470
21,030
18,989 17,762
23,174
30,684
34,049
42,521
46,987
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Cherokee County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Cherokee County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Cherokee Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Cherokee Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
35 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Cherokee
1960 17,762 1973 25,000 1986 33,542 1999 41,937
1961 18,600 1974 26,100 1987 33,568 2000 42,521
1962 19,400 1975 26,700 1988 33,702 2001 43,032
1963 19,800 1976 27,900 1989 34,051 2002 43,518
1964 20,200 1977 28,500 1990 34,049 2003 43,853
1965 20,500 1978 29,300 1991 35,074 2004 44,129
1966 20,800 1979 30,000 1992 36,019 2005 44,408
1967 21,600 1980 30,684 1993 36,557 2006 45,036
1968 22,000 1981 30,614 1994 37,245 2007 45,065
1969 22,700 1982 30,863 1995 38,324 2008 45,667
1970 23,174 1983 32,558 1996 39,198 2009 46,029
1971 24,400 1984 32,789 1997 40,234 2010 46,987
1972 24,700 1985 33,162 1998 41,126 2011 47,845
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Cherokee
2012 48,615 2028 58,084 2044 67,552 2060 77,021
2013 49,207 2029 58,676 2045 68,144 2061 77,613
2014 49,799 2030 59,267 2046 68,736 2062 78,204
2015 50,391 2031 59,859 2047 69,328 2063 78,796
2016 50,982 2032 60,451 2048 69,919 2064 79,388
2017 51,574 2033 61,043 2049 70,511 2065 79,980
2018 52,166 2034 61,634 2050 71,103 2066 80,571
2019 52,758 2035 62,226 2051 71,695 2067 81,163
2020 53,350 2036 62,818 2052 72,287 2068 81,755
2021 53,941 2037 63,410 2053 72,878 2069 82,347
2022 54,533 2038 64,002 2054 73,470 2070 82,939
2023 55,125 2039 64,593 2055 74,062 2071 83,530
2024 55,717 2040 65,185 2056 74,654 2072 84,122
2025 56,308 2041 65,777 2057 75,245 2073 84,714
2026 56,900 2042 66,369 2058 75,837 2074 85,306
2027 57,492 2043 66,961 2059 76,429 2075 85,897
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
36 | P a g e
Choctaw County
Choctaw County is forecast to experience a slight average annual population decline of ‐0.16% between
2010 and 2075. Population volatility in the 1970s reduces the overall fit of the linear regression
trendline, but year over year variation in the long term population forecast is expected to be relatively
slight.
Decennial Census population counts
Choctaw
1910 21,862 1960 15,637 2010 15,205
1920 32,144 1970 15,141
1930 24,142 1980 17,203
1940 28,358 1990 15,302
1950 20,405 2000 15,342
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
21,862
32,144
24,142
28,358
20,405
15,637
15,141
17,203 15,302 15,342 15,205
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Choctaw County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Choctaw County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Choctaw Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Choctaw Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
37 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Choctaw
1960 15,637 1973 17,600 1986 15,958 1999 15,265
1961 15,700 1974 18,000 1987 16,174 2000 15,342
1962 15,800 1975 18,600 1988 15,937 2001 15,143
1963 15,700 1976 16,600 1989 15,438 2002 15,248
1964 15,500 1977 16,700 1990 15,302 2003 15,138
1965 15,300 1978 18,400 1991 15,302 2004 15,168
1966 15,200 1979 17,300 1992 15,429 2005 15,087
1967 15,200 1980 17,203 1993 15,442 2006 15,091
1968 15,100 1981 16,981 1994 15,559 2007 15,002
1969 15,100 1982 16,655 1995 15,351 2008 14,885
1970 15,141 1983 16,599 1996 15,376 2009 14,872
1971 16,400 1984 16,190 1997 15,362 2010 15,205
1972 17,200 1985 15,725 1998 15,305 2011 15,250
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Choctaw
2012 15,191 2028 14,794 2044 14,397 2060 13,999
2013 15,166 2029 14,769 2045 14,372 2061 13,974
2014 15,142 2030 14,744 2046 14,347 2062 13,950
2015 15,117 2031 14,719 2047 14,322 2063 13,925
2016 15,092 2032 14,695 2048 14,297 2064 13,900
2017 15,067 2033 14,670 2049 14,272 2065 13,875
2018 15,042 2034 14,645 2050 14,248 2066 13,850
2019 15,017 2035 14,620 2051 14,223 2067 13,825
2020 14,993 2036 14,595 2052 14,198 2068 13,801
2021 14,968 2037 14,570 2053 14,173 2069 13,776
2022 14,943 2038 14,546 2054 14,148 2070 13,751
2023 14,918 2039 14,521 2055 14,123 2071 13,726
2024 14,893 2040 14,496 2056 14,099 2072 13,701
2025 14,868 2041 14,471 2057 14,074 2073 13,676
2026 14,844 2042 14,446 2058 14,049 2074 13,652
2027 14,819 2043 14,421 2059 14,024 2075 13,627
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
38 | P a g e
Cimarron County
Cimarron County is forecast to experience continued population decline over the next 65 years, though
the pace of that decline is expected to gradually slow over time. Between 2010 and 2075, the rate of
population decline is expected to average ‐0.55%. A power regression trendline was used to develop
Cimarron County’s long term population forecast and the fit appears to be strong. While some year to
year variation is expected, swings up and down are expected to be relatively minor.
Decennial Census population counts
Cimarron
1910 4,553 1960 4,496 2010 2,475
1920 3,436 1970 4,145
1930 5,408 1980 3,648
1940 3,654 1990 3,301
1950 4,589 2000 3,148
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
4,553
3,436
5,408
3,654
4,589 4,496
4,145
3,648
3,301
3,148
2,475
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Cimarron County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Power Trend From 1960 to 2011
Cimarron County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Cimarron Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Cimarron Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Power Trendline
39 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Cimarron
1960 4,496 1973 4,000 1986 3,763 1999 3,129
1961 4,500 1974 4,000 1987 3,891 2000 3,148
1962 4,500 1975 4,000 1988 3,551 2001 3,053
1963 4,500 1976 3,900 1989 3,441 2002 2,974
1964 4,400 1977 3,800 1990 3,301 2003 2,896
1965 4,300 1978 3,600 1991 3,239 2004 2,794
1966 4,300 1979 3,600 1992 3,239 2005 2,708
1967 4,300 1980 3,648 1993 3,235 2006 2,684
1968 4,200 1981 3,709 1994 3,229 2007 2,655
1969 4,200 1982 3,648 1995 3,162 2008 2,585
1970 4,145 1983 3,806 1996 3,194 2009 2,630
1971 4,000 1984 3,853 1997 3,255 2010 2,475
1972 3,900 1985 3,790 1998 3,182 2011 2,487
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Cimarron
2012 2,461 2028 2,161 2044 1,926 2060 1,737
2013 2,440 2029 2,145 2045 1,913 2061 1,727
2014 2,419 2030 2,129 2046 1,901 2062 1,716
2015 2,398 2031 2,113 2047 1,888 2063 1,706
2016 2,378 2032 2,097 2048 1,875 2064 1,696
2017 2,359 2033 2,082 2049 1,863 2065 1,685
2018 2,339 2034 2,067 2050 1,851 2066 1,675
2019 2,320 2035 2,052 2051 1,839 2067 1,666
2020 2,301 2036 2,037 2052 1,827 2068 1,656
2021 2,283 2037 2,023 2053 1,815 2069 1,646
2022 2,264 2038 2,008 2054 1,804 2070 1,637
2023 2,247 2039 1,994 2055 1,792 2071 1,627
2024 2,229 2040 1,980 2056 1,781 2072 1,618
2025 2,212 2041 1,967 2057 1,770 2073 1,609
2026 2,194 2042 1,953 2058 1,759 2074 1,599
2027 2,178 2043 1,940 2059 1,748 2075 1,590
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
40 | P a g e
Cleveland County
Cleveland County is forecast to have an average annual growth rate of 1.60% over the next 65 years,
slightly below the 2.34% population growth rate experienced over the previous two decades. The linear
regression trendline shows a strong fit against population growth patterns between 1960 and 2010, and
little variation among long range population forecasts is expected.
Decennial Census population counts
Cleveland
1910 18,843 1960 47,600 2010 255,755
1920 19,389 1970 81,839
1930 24,948 1980 133,173
1940 27,728 1990 174,253
1950 41,443 2000 208,016
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
18,843 19,389 24,948 27,728 41,443 47,600
81,839
133,173
174,253
208,016
255,755
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Cleveland County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Cleveland County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Cleveland Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Cleveland Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
41 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Cleveland
1960 47,600 1973 99,500 1986 167,782 1999 206,844
1961 52,100 1974 106,100 1987 169,453 2000 208,016
1962 55,900 1975 104,900 1988 169,669 2001 212,541
1963 59,000 1976 108,900 1989 171,753 2002 215,733
1964 62,100 1977 115,200 1990 174,253 2003 219,499
1965 64,700 1978 120,000 1991 177,804 2004 222,373
1966 67,900 1979 127,400 1992 181,338 2005 225,835
1967 71,800 1980 133,173 1993 185,499 2006 232,379
1968 75,000 1981 139,567 1994 189,607 2007 235,906
1969 78,900 1982 148,470 1995 192,741 2008 240,568
1970 81,839 1983 156,631 1996 195,785 2009 244,589
1971 87,400 1984 162,174 1997 200,515 2010 255,755
1972 93,100 1985 164,533 1998 203,730 2011 261,281
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Cleveland
2012 261,923 2028 327,814 2044 393,704 2060 459,595
2013 266,041 2029 331,932 2045 397,823 2061 463,713
2014 270,159 2030 336,050 2046 401,941 2062 467,832
2015 274,277 2031 340,168 2047 406,059 2063 471,950
2016 278,395 2032 344,286 2048 410,177 2064 476,068
2017 282,514 2033 348,404 2049 414,295 2065 480,186
2018 286,632 2034 352,523 2050 418,414 2066 484,304
2019 290,750 2035 356,641 2051 422,532 2067 488,423
2020 294,868 2036 360,759 2052 426,650 2068 492,541
2021 298,986 2037 364,877 2053 430,768 2069 496,659
2022 303,105 2038 368,995 2054 434,886 2070 500,777
2023 307,223 2039 373,114 2055 439,004 2071 504,895
2024 311,341 2040 377,232 2056 443,123 2072 509,013
2025 315,459 2041 381,350 2057 447,241 2073 513,132
2026 319,577 2042 385,468 2058 451,359 2074 517,250
2027 323,695 2043 389,586 2059 455,477 2075 521,368
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
42 | P a g e
Coal County
Coal County’s population growth has remained relatively flat over the last 50 years, with only a slight
growth pattern expected between now and 2075. From 1960 to 2010, Coal County has shown 0.14%
average annual growth, and average annual growth over the next 50 years is expected to remain at
0.10%. While some slight up and down variation may be expected, the overall population trend will
most likely remain flat.
Decennial Census population counts
Coal
1910 15,817 1960 5,546 2010 5,925
1920 18,406 1970 5,525
1930 11,521 1980 6,041
1940 12,811 1990 5,780
1950 8,056 2000 6,031
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
15,817
18,406
11,521
12,811
8,056
5,546 5,525 6,041 5,780 6,031 5,925
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Coal County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Coal County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Coal Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Coal Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
43 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Coal
1960 5,546 1973 5,800 1986 6,160 1999 6,021
1961 5,600 1974 5,900 1987 6,134 2000 6,031
1962 5,600 1975 6,000 1988 6,040 2001 5,998
1963 5,600 1976 6,300 1989 5,980 2002 5,931
1964 5,500 1977 6,300 1990 5,780 2003 5,890
1965 5,500 1978 6,300 1991 5,658 2004 5,836
1966 5,400 1979 6,200 1992 5,717 2005 5,690
1967 5,400 1980 6,041 1993 5,816 2006 5,613
1968 5,500 1981 6,110 1994 5,878 2007 5,654
1969 5,500 1982 5,972 1995 5,958 2008 5,672
1970 5,525 1983 6,271 1996 6,011 2009 5,856
1971 5,700 1984 6,126 1997 6,005 2010 5,925
1972 5,900 1985 6,079 1998 5,912 2011 5,928
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Coal
2012 5,991 2028 6,069 2044 6,148 2060 6,226
2013 5,996 2029 6,074 2045 6,153 2061 6,231
2014 6,001 2030 6,079 2046 6,157 2062 6,236
2015 6,005 2031 6,084 2047 6,162 2063 6,241
2016 6,010 2032 6,089 2048 6,167 2064 6,246
2017 6,015 2033 6,094 2049 6,172 2065 6,251
2018 6,020 2034 6,099 2050 6,177 2066 6,255
2019 6,025 2035 6,103 2051 6,182 2067 6,260
2020 6,030 2036 6,108 2052 6,187 2068 6,265
2021 6,035 2037 6,113 2053 6,192 2069 6,270
2022 6,040 2038 6,118 2054 6,197 2070 6,275
2023 6,045 2039 6,123 2055 6,202 2071 6,280
2024 6,050 2040 6,128 2056 6,206 2072 6,285
2025 6,054 2041 6,133 2057 6,211 2073 6,290
2026 6,059 2042 6,138 2058 6,216 2074 6,295
2027 6,064 2043 6,143 2059 6,221 2075 6,300
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
44 | P a g e
Comanche County
Comanche County is forecast to experience 0.31% population growth between 2010 and 2075. The
County has experienced continued up and down swings in population since 1960, but the long term
trend has remained generally positive. A linear regression trendline based on population data over the
last 50 years shows how wide those swings have been, and similar swings around forecasted population
counts are expected to occur between now and 2075.
Decennial Census population counts
Comanche
1910 25,067 1960 90,803 2010 124,098
1920 26,629 1970 108,144
1930 34,317 1980 112,456
1940 38,988 1990 111,486
1950 55,165 2000 114,996
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
25,067
26,629
34,317 38,988
55,165
90,803
108,144 112,456 111,486 114,996
124,098
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Comanche County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Comanche County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Comanche Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Comanche Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
45 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Comanche
1960 90,803 1973 102,700 1986 118,976 1999 116,064
1961 93,900 1974 104,200 1987 118,365 2000 114,996
1962 96,600 1975 105,800 1988 116,417 2001 112,236
1963 98,100 1976 114,300 1989 112,313 2002 112,009
1964 99,300 1977 115,500 1990 111,486 2003 110,484
1965 99,700 1978 117,400 1991 111,454 2004 113,630
1966 100,900 1979 115,000 1992 120,903 2005 111,866
1967 103,000 1980 112,456 1993 118,945 2006 112,293
1968 104,400 1981 114,573 1994 118,733 2007 114,503
1969 106,600 1982 119,414 1995 116,713 2008 112,249
1970 108,144 1983 121,858 1996 116,635 2009 113,228
1971 107,900 1984 120,749 1997 115,912 2010 124,098
1972 100,400 1985 120,211 1998 115,577 2011 125,815
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Comanche
2012 125,396 2028 131,349 2044 137,303 2060 143,257
2013 125,768 2029 131,721 2045 137,675 2061 143,629
2014 126,140 2030 132,094 2046 138,047 2062 144,001
2015 126,512 2031 132,466 2047 138,419 2063 144,373
2016 126,884 2032 132,838 2048 138,792 2064 144,745
2017 127,256 2033 133,210 2049 139,164 2065 145,117
2018 127,628 2034 133,582 2050 139,536 2066 145,490
2019 128,000 2035 133,954 2051 139,908 2067 145,862
2020 128,373 2036 134,326 2052 140,280 2068 146,234
2021 128,745 2037 134,698 2053 140,652 2069 146,606
2022 129,117 2038 135,070 2054 141,024 2070 146,978
2023 129,489 2039 135,443 2055 141,396 2071 147,350
2024 129,861 2040 135,815 2056 141,768 2072 147,722
2025 130,233 2041 136,187 2057 142,141 2073 148,094
2026 130,605 2042 136,559 2058 142,513 2074 148,466
2027 130,977 2043 136,931 2059 142,885 2075 148,838
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
46 | P a g e
Cotton County
Cotton County is forecast to have a ‐.039% average annual population decline over the next 65 years.
The linear regression trendline above has a relatively good fit, with greater volatility shown in the 1960s
and 1970s. Some year to year variation from population forecasts is expected, but the variation is likely
to be relatively small.
Decennial Census population counts
Cotton
1910 16,422 1960 8,031 2010 6,193
1920 16,679 1970 6,832
1930 15,442 1980 7,338
1940 12,884 1990 6,651
1950 10,180 2000 6,614
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
16,422 16,679
15,442
12,884
10,180
8,031
6,832 7,338
6,651 6,614
6,193
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Cotton County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Cotton County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Cotton Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Cotton Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
47 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Cotton
1960 8,031 1973 6,600 1986 6,921 1999 6,478
1961 7,900 1974 6,600 1987 6,936 2000 6,614
1962 7,900 1975 6,700 1988 6,872 2001 6,430
1963 7,800 1976 6,900 1989 6,731 2002 6,375
1964 7,600 1977 6,900 1990 6,651 2003 6,431
1965 7,400 1978 7,000 1991 6,442 2004 6,394
1966 7,200 1979 7,200 1992 6,510 2005 6,449
1967 7,100 1980 7,338 1993 6,540 2006 6,393
1968 7,000 1981 7,204 1994 6,590 2007 6,367
1969 6,900 1982 7,004 1995 6,699 2008 6,267
1970 6,832 1983 7,226 1996 6,722 2009 6,281
1971 6,800 1984 7,297 1997 6,585 2010 6,193
1972 6,700 1985 7,050 1998 6,499 2011 6,179
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Cotton
2012 6,184 2028 5,787 2044 5,390 2060 4,993
2013 6,159 2029 5,762 2045 5,365 2061 4,968
2014 6,134 2030 5,737 2046 5,340 2062 4,943
2015 6,109 2031 5,712 2047 5,315 2063 4,919
2016 6,084 2032 5,688 2048 5,291 2064 4,894
2017 6,060 2033 5,663 2049 5,266 2065 4,869
2018 6,035 2034 5,638 2050 5,241 2066 4,844
2019 6,010 2035 5,613 2051 5,216 2067 4,819
2020 5,985 2036 5,588 2052 5,191 2068 4,795
2021 5,960 2037 5,564 2053 5,167 2069 4,770
2022 5,936 2038 5,539 2054 5,142 2070 4,745
2023 5,911 2039 5,514 2055 5,117 2071 4,720
2024 5,886 2040 5,489 2056 5,092 2072 4,695
2025 5,861 2041 5,464 2057 5,067 2073 4,671
2026 5,836 2042 5,440 2058 5,043 2074 4,646
2027 5,812 2043 5,415 2059 5,018 2075 4,621
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
48 | P a g e
Craig County
Craig County is forecast to have a ‐0.10% average annual rate of population decline over the next 65
years, based on a linear regression trendline drawn on population data between 1960 and 2010.
Population variation around that line is expected to be relatively small between now and 2075.
Decennial Census population counts
Craig
1910 17,404 1960 16,303 2010 15,029
1920 19,160 1970 14,722
1930 18,052 1980 15,014
1940 21,083 1990 14,104
1950 18,263 2000 14,950
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
17,404
19,160
18,052
21,083
18,263
16,303
14,722 15,014
14,104 14,950 15,029
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Craig County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Craig County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Craig Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Craig Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
49 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Craig
1960 16,303 1973 14,800 1986 14,997 1999 14,899
1961 16,300 1974 14,900 1987 14,835 2000 14,950
1962 16,300 1975 14,700 1988 14,618 2001 14,768
1963 16,000 1976 14,600 1989 14,298 2002 14,742
1964 15,800 1977 15,000 1990 14,104 2003 14,781
1965 15,500 1978 15,200 1991 14,087 2004 14,815
1966 15,200 1979 15,200 1992 14,202 2005 14,995
1967 15,200 1980 15,014 1993 14,232 2006 15,006
1968 14,900 1981 14,858 1994 14,385 2007 15,136
1969 14,800 1982 15,076 1995 14,462 2008 15,101
1970 14,722 1983 15,164 1996 14,674 2009 15,158
1971 14,900 1984 14,968 1997 14,814 2010 15,029
1972 15,100 1985 15,040 1998 14,870 2011 15,073
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Craig
2012 15,059 2028 14,809 2044 14,559 2060 14,309
2013 15,043 2029 14,793 2045 14,544 2061 14,294
2014 15,028 2030 14,778 2046 14,528 2062 14,278
2015 15,012 2031 14,762 2047 14,512 2063 14,263
2016 14,996 2032 14,747 2048 14,497 2064 14,247
2017 14,981 2033 14,731 2049 14,481 2065 14,231
2018 14,965 2034 14,715 2050 14,466 2066 14,216
2019 14,950 2035 14,700 2051 14,450 2067 14,200
2020 14,934 2036 14,684 2052 14,434 2068 14,185
2021 14,918 2037 14,669 2053 14,419 2069 14,169
2022 14,903 2038 14,653 2054 14,403 2070 14,153
2023 14,887 2039 14,637 2055 14,387 2071 14,138
2024 14,871 2040 14,622 2056 14,372 2072 14,122
2025 14,856 2041 14,606 2057 14,356 2073 14,106
2026 14,840 2042 14,590 2058 14,341 2074 14,091
2027 14,825 2043 14,575 2059 14,325 2075 14,075
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
50 | P a g e
Creek County
Creek County’s population is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 0.87%, slightly above the
forecast state growth rate. While growth has slowed somewhat over the last 5 years, the linear
regression trendline retains a relatively strong fit and is expected to be a good indicator for future
growth patterns.
Decennial Census population counts
Creek
1910 26,223 1960 40,495 2010 69,967
1920 62,480 1970 45,532
1930 64,115 1980 59,016
1940 55,503 1990 60,915
1950 43,143 2000 67,367
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
26,223
62,480 64,115
55,503
43,143 40,495
45,532
59,016 60,915
67,367 69,967
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Creek County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Creek County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Creek Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Creek Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
51 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Creek
1960 40,495 1973 48,800 1986 66,045 1999 67,056
1961 41,400 1974 50,400 1987 64,531 2000 67,367
1962 42,300 1975 51,500 1988 62,869 2001 67,903
1963 42,500 1976 53,100 1989 61,617 2002 68,346
1964 42,700 1977 55,400 1990 60,915 2003 68,320
1965 42,700 1978 57,200 1991 61,554 2004 68,138
1966 43,100 1979 58,400 1992 62,087 2005 68,059
1967 43,900 1980 59,016 1993 62,591 2006 68,216
1968 44,300 1981 60,848 1994 63,270 2007 68,835
1969 45,000 1982 63,238 1995 64,053 2008 69,514
1970 45,532 1983 64,360 1996 64,638 2009 70,244
1971 46,900 1984 67,458 1997 65,540 2010 69,967
1972 47,700 1985 67,432 1998 66,326 2011 70,467
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Creek
2012 70,888 2028 80,758 2044 90,628 2060 100,498
2013 71,505 2029 81,375 2045 91,245 2061 101,115
2014 72,122 2030 81,992 2046 91,862 2062 101,732
2015 72,739 2031 82,609 2047 92,479 2063 102,349
2016 73,356 2032 83,226 2048 93,096 2064 102,966
2017 73,973 2033 83,843 2049 93,713 2065 103,582
2018 74,590 2034 84,460 2050 94,329 2066 104,199
2019 75,206 2035 85,076 2051 94,946 2067 104,816
2020 75,823 2036 85,693 2052 95,563 2068 105,433
2021 76,440 2037 86,310 2053 96,180 2069 106,050
2022 77,057 2038 86,927 2054 96,797 2070 106,667
2023 77,674 2039 87,544 2055 97,414 2071 107,284
2024 78,291 2040 88,161 2056 98,031 2072 107,901
2025 78,908 2041 88,778 2057 98,648 2073 108,517
2026 79,525 2042 89,394 2058 99,264 2074 109,134
2027 80,141 2043 90,011 2059 99,881 2075 109,751
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
52 | P a g e
Custer County
Custer County is forecast to have a 0.39% average annual rate of population growth over the next 65
years. A linear regression formula based on the county’s population data from 1960 to 2010 shows a
lower degree of fit, but that is largely due to a strong population growth spurt followed by a sharp
population decline during the 1980s. Removing that one‐time peak would result in a significantly
improved overall fit for the regression formula. Some year to year variation from forecasts is expected.
Decennial Census population counts
Custer
1910 23,231 1960 21,040 2010 27,469
1920 18,736 1970 22,665
1930 27,517 1980 25,995
1940 23,068 1990 26,897
1950 21,097 2000 26,142
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
23,231
18,736
27,517
23,068
21,097
21,040 22,665
25,995
26,897 26,142 27,469
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Custer County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Custer County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Custer Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Custer Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
53 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Custer
1960 21,040 1973 23,600 1986 28,896 1999 26,263
1961 21,500 1974 23,600 1987 27,791 2000 26,142
1962 21,900 1975 23,400 1988 27,065 2001 25,696
1963 22,000 1976 23,900 1989 27,452 2002 25,195
1964 22,000 1977 24,400 1990 26,897 2003 25,319
1965 21,800 1978 25,000 1991 26,557 2004 25,339
1966 21,900 1979 25,800 1992 26,749 2005 25,501
1967 22,200 1980 25,995 1993 26,694 2006 25,704
1968 22,300 1981 27,655 1994 26,772 2007 25,865
1969 22,500 1982 31,078 1995 26,609 2008 26,272
1970 22,665 1983 32,285 1996 26,327 2009 26,717
1971 23,000 1984 30,500 1997 26,172 2010 27,469
1972 23,500 1985 29,659 1998 26,227 2011 27,750
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Custer
2012 28,126 2028 29,728 2044 31,330 2060 32,932
2013 28,227 2029 29,828 2045 31,430 2061 33,032
2014 28,327 2030 29,928 2046 31,530 2062 33,132
2015 28,427 2031 30,029 2047 31,630 2063 33,232
2016 28,527 2032 30,129 2048 31,731 2064 33,332
2017 28,627 2033 30,229 2049 31,831 2065 33,432
2018 28,727 2034 30,329 2050 31,931 2066 33,533
2019 28,827 2035 30,429 2051 32,031 2067 33,633
2020 28,927 2036 30,529 2052 32,131 2068 33,733
2021 29,027 2037 30,629 2053 32,231 2069 33,833
2022 29,128 2038 30,729 2054 32,331 2070 33,933
2023 29,228 2039 30,830 2055 32,431 2071 34,033
2024 29,328 2040 30,930 2056 32,531 2072 34,133
2025 29,428 2041 31,030 2057 32,632 2073 34,233
2026 29,528 2042 31,130 2058 32,732 2074 34,334
2027 29,628 2043 31,230 2059 32,832 2075 34,434
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
54 | P a g e
Delaware County
Delaware County is forecast to experience an annual average growth rate of 1.43% over the next 65
years. The linear regression trendline is an excellent fit with the historic pattern of growth experienced
by the county over the last half century, and should be a very good indicator of future growth trends.
Little year to year variation is expected.
Decennial Census population counts
Delaware
1910 11,469 1960 13,198 2010 41,487
1920 13,868 1970 17,767
1930 15,370 1980 23,946
1940 18,592 1990 28,070
1950 14,734 2000 37,077
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
11,469
13,868 15,370
18,592
14,734 13,198
17,767
23,946
28,070
37,077
41,487
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
90,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Delaware County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Delaware County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Delaware Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Delaware Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
55 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Delaware
1960 13,198 1973 19,700 1986 27,157 1999 36,503
1961 13,900 1974 20,100 1987 27,545 2000 37,077
1962 14,500 1975 20,300 1988 27,796 2001 37,643
1963 14,900 1976 20,600 1989 28,001 2002 37,935
1964 15,300 1977 21,500 1990 28,070 2003 38,504
1965 15,500 1978 22,000 1991 28,630 2004 38,797
1966 16,000 1979 23,900 1992 29,600 2005 38,980
1967 16,500 1980 23,946 1993 30,549 2006 39,873
1968 16,900 1981 24,477 1994 31,741 2007 40,511
1969 17,400 1982 25,340 1995 33,028 2008 40,463
1970 17,767 1983 26,314 1996 34,117 2009 40,555
1971 18,800 1984 26,533 1997 34,966 2010 41,487
1972 19,200 1985 26,914 1998 35,675 2011 41,633
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Delaware
2012 42,870 2028 52,286 2044 61,702 2060 71,117
2013 43,459 2029 52,874 2045 62,290 2061 71,706
2014 44,047 2030 53,463 2046 62,879 2062 72,294
2015 44,636 2031 54,051 2047 63,467 2063 72,883
2016 45,224 2032 54,640 2048 64,056 2064 73,471
2017 45,813 2033 55,228 2049 64,644 2065 74,060
2018 46,401 2034 55,817 2050 65,233 2066 74,648
2019 46,990 2035 56,405 2051 65,821 2067 75,237
2020 47,578 2036 56,994 2052 66,410 2068 75,825
2021 48,167 2037 57,582 2053 66,998 2069 76,414
2022 48,755 2038 58,171 2054 67,587 2070 77,002
2023 49,344 2039 58,759 2055 68,175 2071 77,591
2024 49,932 2040 59,348 2056 68,764 2072 78,179
2025 50,521 2041 59,936 2057 69,352 2073 78,768
2026 51,109 2042 60,525 2058 69,940 2074 79,356
2027 51,698 2043 61,113 2059 70,529 2075 79,945
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
56 | P a g e
Dewey County
Dewey County is forecast to have a continued decline in population, but the pace of that decline is
forecast to slow over the next 65 years. On average, the annual rate of decline is forecast to be ‐0.32%.
While Dewey County experienced some population growth in the late 1970s and early 1980s, led by
growth in the energy sector, the overall trend has been downward since the 1930s. A power regression
trendline based on population data from the last 50 years indicates the population will slowly drop
below 4,000.
Decennial Census population counts
Dewey
1910 14,132 1960 6,051 2010 4,810
1920 12,434 1970 5,656
1930 13,250 1980 5,922
1940 11,981 1990 5,551
1950 8,789 2000 4,743
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
14,132
12,434
13,250
11,981
8,789
6,051
5,656 5,922
5,551
4,743 4,810
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Dewey County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Power Trend From 1960 to 2011
Dewey County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Dewey Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Dewey Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Power Trendline
57 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Dewey
1960 6,051 1973 5,500 1986 6,155 1999 4,811
1961 6,100 1974 5,300 1987 5,947 2000 4,743
1962 6,000 1975 5,300 1988 5,715 2001 4,597
1963 6,000 1976 5,500 1989 5,647 2002 4,513
1964 5,900 1977 5,600 1990 5,551 2003 4,471
1965 5,800 1978 5,800 1991 5,469 2004 4,512
1966 5,800 1979 6,000 1992 5,417 2005 4,398
1967 5,800 1980 5,922 1993 5,266 2006 4,369
1968 5,700 1981 6,054 1994 5,183 2007 4,368
1969 5,700 1982 6,501 1995 5,079 2008 4,416
1970 5,656 1983 6,711 1996 5,007 2009 4,404
1971 5,700 1984 6,456 1997 4,913 2010 4,810
1972 5,500 1985 6,200 1998 4,840 2011 4,867
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Dewey
2012 4,695 2028 4,410 2044 4,176 2060 3,978
2013 4,675 2029 4,394 2045 4,162 2061 3,967
2014 4,656 2030 4,379 2046 4,149 2062 3,955
2015 4,637 2031 4,363 2047 4,136 2063 3,944
2016 4,618 2032 4,348 2048 4,123 2064 3,933
2017 4,599 2033 4,332 2049 4,110 2065 3,922
2018 4,581 2034 4,317 2050 4,098 2066 3,911
2019 4,563 2035 4,302 2051 4,085 2067 3,901
2020 4,545 2036 4,288 2052 4,073 2068 3,890
2021 4,528 2037 4,273 2053 4,061 2069 3,879
2022 4,510 2038 4,259 2054 4,048 2070 3,869
2023 4,493 2039 4,245 2055 4,036 2071 3,859
2024 4,476 2040 4,230 2056 4,025 2072 3,848
2025 4,459 2041 4,217 2057 4,013 2073 3,838
2026 4,443 2042 4,203 2058 4,001 2074 3,828
2027 4,426 2043 4,189 2059 3,989 2075 3,818
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
58 | P a g e
Ellis County
Ellis County is forecast to experience continued but slowing population decline over the next 65 years,
based on a power regression trendline. The trendline, using data for the last half century, indicates Ellis
County’s population will decline at an average annual rate of ‐0.43%, with a somewhat higher rate in the
short term and lower rates in the longer term. Some year to year variation from these projections is
expected due to the influence of energy developments in the county.
Decennial Census population counts
Ellis
1910 15,375 1960 5,457 2010 4,151
1920 11,673 1970 5,129
1930 10,541 1980 5,596
1940 8,466 1990 4,497
1950 7,326 2000 4,075
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
15,375
11,673
10,541
8,466
7,326
5,457
5,129 5,596
4,497
4,075 4,151
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Ellis County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Power Trend From 1960 to 2011
Ellis County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Ellis Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Ellis Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Power Trendline
59 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Ellis
1960 5,457 1973 5,200 1986 5,257 1999 4,134
1961 5,500 1974 5,200 1987 5,050 2000 4,075
1962 5,500 1975 5,300 1988 4,728 2001 3,896
1963 5,400 1976 5,400 1989 4,652 2002 3,954
1964 5,400 1977 5,300 1990 4,497 2003 3,909
1965 5,300 1978 5,500 1991 4,396 2004 3,909
1966 5,200 1979 5,800 1992 4,330 2005 3,870
1967 5,200 1980 5,596 1993 4,299 2006 3,769
1968 5,100 1981 5,976 1994 4,193 2007 3,836
1969 5,100 1982 6,410 1995 4,178 2008 3,877
1970 5,129 1983 6,365 1996 4,156 2009 3,925
1971 5,400 1984 5,986 1997 4,144 2010 4,151
1972 5,300 1985 5,598 1998 4,174 2011 4,051
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Ellis
2012 3,972 2028 3,647 2044 3,385 2060 3,169
2013 3,949 2029 3,629 2045 3,371 2061 3,156
2014 3,927 2030 3,612 2046 3,356 2062 3,144
2015 3,905 2031 3,594 2047 3,342 2063 3,132
2016 3,884 2032 3,577 2048 3,327 2064 3,120
2017 3,862 2033 3,560 2049 3,313 2065 3,108
2018 3,841 2034 3,543 2050 3,299 2066 3,096
2019 3,821 2035 3,526 2051 3,286 2067 3,085
2020 3,800 2036 3,510 2052 3,272 2068 3,073
2021 3,780 2037 3,494 2053 3,259 2069 3,062
2022 3,760 2038 3,477 2054 3,245 2070 3,051
2023 3,741 2039 3,462 2055 3,232 2071 3,040
2024 3,722 2040 3,446 2056 3,219 2072 3,029
2025 3,703 2041 3,431 2057 3,206 2073 3,018
2026 3,684 2042 3,415 2058 3,194 2074 3,007
2027 3,666 2043 3,400 2059 3,181 2075 2,996
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
60 | P a g e
Garfield County
Garfield County is expected to realize a slight population growth over the next 65 years, growing at an
average annual rate of 0.05%. A linear regression trendline based on population history for the last 50
years indicates slow but relatively steady growth, but the quality of the formula’s fit shows a high
likelihood of year to year variation from the overall trend.
Decennial Census population counts
Garfield
1910 33,050 1960 52,975 2010 60,580
1920 37,500 1970 55,365
1930 45,588 1980 62,820
1940 45,484 1990 56,735
1950 52,820 2000 57,813
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
33,050
37,500
45,588 45,484
52,820 52,975
55,365
62,820
56,735 57,813
60,580
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Garfield County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Garfield County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Garfield Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Garfield Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
61 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Garfield
1960 52,975 1973 56,500 1986 62,550 1999 58,197
1961 53,900 1974 57,600 1987 59,858 2000 57,813
1962 54,800 1975 58,700 1988 57,691 2001 57,181
1963 54,900 1976 60,100 1989 57,178 2002 57,115
1964 54,900 1977 61,100 1990 56,735 2003 57,149
1965 54,600 1978 61,900 1991 56,486 2004 57,169
1966 54,800 1979 62,300 1992 56,780 2005 56,940
1967 55,400 1980 62,820 1993 56,879 2006 57,145
1968 55,500 1981 64,500 1994 57,296 2007 57,434
1969 56,000 1982 67,597 1995 57,939 2008 58,053
1970 55,365 1983 67,225 1996 57,794 2009 58,928
1971 57,600 1984 65,759 1997 57,831 2010 60,580
1972 57,600 1985 64,151 1998 58,122 2011 60,670
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Garfield
2012 59,615 2028 60,356 2044 61,098 2060 61,839
2013 59,661 2029 60,402 2045 61,144 2061 61,885
2014 59,707 2030 60,449 2046 61,190 2062 61,932
2015 59,754 2031 60,495 2047 61,237 2063 61,978
2016 59,800 2032 60,541 2048 61,283 2064 62,024
2017 59,846 2033 60,588 2049 61,329 2065 62,071
2018 59,893 2034 60,634 2050 61,376 2066 62,117
2019 59,939 2035 60,680 2051 61,422 2067 62,163
2020 59,985 2036 60,727 2052 61,468 2068 62,210
2021 60,032 2037 60,773 2053 61,515 2069 62,256
2022 60,078 2038 60,819 2054 61,561 2070 62,302
2023 60,124 2039 60,866 2055 61,607 2071 62,349
2024 60,171 2040 60,912 2056 61,654 2072 62,395
2025 60,217 2041 60,958 2057 61,700 2073 62,441
2026 60,263 2042 61,005 2058 61,746 2074 62,488
2027 60,310 2043 61,051 2059 61,793 2075 62,534
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
62 | P a g e
Garvin County
Garvin County is forecast to have essentially flat long‐term population growth over the coming 65 years,
with an overall average annual growth rate of 0.00%. However, the degree of fit indicated by a linear
regression trendline drawn from population data between 1960 and 2011 indicates that there is a high
likelihood of year to year variation from population forecasts.
Decennial Census population counts
Garvin
1910 26,545 1960 28,290 2010 27,576
1920 32,445 1970 24,874
1930 31,401 1980 27,856
1940 31,150 1990 26,605
1950 29,500 2000 27,210
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
26,545
32,445
31,401 31,150
29,500
28,290
24,8742 7,856 26,605 27,210 27,576
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Garvin County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Garvin County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Garvin Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Garvin Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
63 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Garvin
1960 28,290 1973 26,200 1986 29,199 1999 26,971
1961 28,300 1974 26,500 1987 28,230 2000 27,210
1962 28,300 1975 26,900 1988 27,418 2001 27,021
1963 27,800 1976 27,000 1989 26,843 2002 27,040
1964 27,300 1977 26,900 1990 26,605 2003 26,964
1965 26,600 1978 27,300 1991 26,592 2004 26,787
1966 26,100 1979 27,400 1992 26,586 2005 26,864
1967 25,900 1980 27,856 1993 26,587 2006 26,955
1968 25,400 1981 28,684 1994 26,729 2007 27,074
1969 25,100 1982 29,893 1995 26,856 2008 27,128
1970 24,874 1983 30,552 1996 26,841 2009 27,113
1971 25,900 1984 30,118 1997 26,940 2010 27,576
1972 26,300 1985 29,350 1998 26,967 2011 27,452
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Garvin
2012 27,298 2028 27,346 2044 27,394 2060 27,442
2013 27,301 2029 27,349 2045 27,397 2061 27,445
2014 27,304 2030 27,352 2046 27,400 2062 27,448
2015 27,307 2031 27,355 2047 27,403 2063 27,451
2016 27,310 2032 27,358 2048 27,406 2064 27,454
2017 27,313 2033 27,361 2049 27,409 2065 27,457
2018 27,316 2034 27,364 2050 27,412 2066 27,460
2019 27,319 2035 27,367 2051 27,415 2067 27,463
2020 27,322 2036 27,370 2052 27,418 2068 27,466
2021 27,325 2037 27,373 2053 27,421 2069 27,469
2022 27,328 2038 27,376 2054 27,424 2070 27,472
2023 27,331 2039 27,379 2055 27,427 2071 27,475
2024 27,334 2040 27,382 2056 27,430 2072 27,478
2025 27,337 2041 27,385 2057 27,433 2073 27,481
2026 27,340 2042 27,388 2058 27,436 2074 27,484
2027 27,343 2043 27,391 2059 27,439 2075 27,487
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
64 | P a g e
Grady County
Grady County is forecast to experience population growth slightly exceeding the state average over the
next 65 years. Grady County’s population is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.88%
between now and 2075 with a high level of fit shown by a linear regression trendline. This indicates that
there will likely be only small degrees of year to year variation in population forecasts over the long run.
Decennial Census population counts
Grady
1910 30,309 1960 29,590 2010 52,431
1920 33,943 1970 29,354
1930 47,638 1980 39,490
1940 41,116 1990 41,747
1950 34,872 2000 45,516
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
30,309
33,943
47,638
41,116
34,872
29,590 29,354
39,490
41,747
45,516
52,431
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
90,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Grady County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Grady County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Grady Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Grady Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
65 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Grady
1960 29,590 1973 32,900 1986 43,899 1999 45,280
1961 29,800 1974 34,000 1987 43,089 2000 45,516
1962 30,100 1975 35,000 1988 42,587 2001 45,844
1963 29,900 1976 36,100 1989 42,247 2002 46,620
1964 29,500 1977 36,900 1990 41,747 2003 47,080
1965 29,300 1978 37,500 1991 41,673 2004 47,929
1966 29,200 1979 38,700 1992 41,795 2005 48,942
1967 29,300 1980 39,490 1993 42,254 2006 50,051
1968 29,200 1981 40,943 1994 42,646 2007 50,428
1969 29,300 1982 43,836 1995 43,399 2008 51,099
1970 29,354 1983 45,454 1996 44,297 2009 51,649
1971 30,600 1984 45,098 1997 44,760 2010 52,431
1972 32,100 1985 45,013 1998 44,999 2011 53,020
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Grady
2012 52,781 2028 60,341 2044 67,901 2060 75,462
2013 53,253 2029 60,813 2045 68,374 2061 75,934
2014 53,726 2030 61,286 2046 68,846 2062 76,407
2015 54,198 2031 61,758 2047 69,319 2063 76,879
2016 54,671 2032 62,231 2048 69,791 2064 77,352
2017 55,143 2033 62,703 2049 70,264 2065 77,824
2018 55,616 2034 63,176 2050 70,736 2066 78,297
2019 56,088 2035 63,649 2051 71,209 2067 78,769
2020 56,561 2036 64,121 2052 71,681 2068 79,242
2021 57,033 2037 64,594 2053 72,154 2069 79,714
2022 57,506 2038 65,066 2054 72,626 2070 80,187
2023 57,978 2039 65,539 2055 73,099 2071 80,659
2024 58,451 2040 66,011 2056 73,571 2072 81,132
2025 58,923 2041 66,484 2057 74,044 2073 81,604
2026 59,396 2042 66,956 2058 74,516 2074 82,077
2027 59,868 2043 67,429 2059 74,989 2075 82,549
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
66 | P a g e
Grant County
Grant County is forecast to experience a slowing rate of population decline over the coming 65 years, as
indicated by a power regression trendline drawn from the county’s population history over the last 50
years. The county’s average annual population rate of decline is expected to be ‐0.52%, with a higher
rate of decline in the short term and a slower rate of decline experienced in the longer term. The level
of fit indicated by the power regression trendline indicates relatively low year to year variation in
population forecasts.
Decennial Census population counts
Grant
1910 18,760 1960 8,140 2010 4,527
1920 16,072 1970 7,117
1930 14,150 1980 6,518
1940 13,128 1990 5,689
1950 10,461 2000 5,144
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
18,760
16,072
14,150
13,128
10,461
8,140
7,117 6,518
5,689 5,144
4,527
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Grant County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Power Trend From 1960 to 2011
Grant County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Grant Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Grant Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Power Trendline
67 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Grant
1960 8,140 1973 6,900 1986 6,470 1999 5,171
1961 8,100 1974 6,700 1987 6,216 2000 5,144
1962 8,100 1975 6,700 1988 5,974 2001 5,019
1963 8,000 1976 7,000 1989 5,757 2002 4,931
1964 7,800 1977 6,900 1990 5,689 2003 4,865
1965 7,600 1978 6,700 1991 5,570 2004 4,696
1966 7,500 1979 6,600 1992 5,483 2005 4,656
1967 7,400 1980 6,518 1993 5,550 2006 4,513
1968 7,300 1981 6,704 1994 5,535 2007 4,482
1969 7,200 1982 6,669 1995 5,428 2008 4,448
1970 7,117 1983 6,792 1996 5,441 2009 4,317
1971 7,000 1984 6,725 1997 5,378 2010 4,527
1972 6,900 1985 6,617 1998 5,278 2011 4,585
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Grant
2012 4,573 2028 4,022 2044 3,595 2060 3,254
2013 4,534 2029 3,992 2045 3,571 2061 3,234
2014 4,496 2030 3,963 2046 3,548 2062 3,216
2015 4,458 2031 3,934 2047 3,525 2063 3,197
2016 4,421 2032 3,905 2048 3,502 2064 3,179
2017 4,385 2033 3,877 2049 3,480 2065 3,161
2018 4,349 2034 3,850 2050 3,458 2066 3,143
2019 4,313 2035 3,822 2051 3,436 2067 3,125
2020 4,279 2036 3,796 2052 3,415 2068 3,107
2021 4,245 2037 3,769 2053 3,394 2069 3,090
2022 4,211 2038 3,743 2054 3,373 2070 3,073
2023 4,178 2039 3,717 2055 3,353 2071 3,056
2024 4,146 2040 3,692 2056 3,332 2072 3,039
2025 4,114 2041 3,667 2057 3,312 2073 3,023
2026 4,083 2042 3,643 2058 3,292 2074 3,007
2027 4,052 2043 3,618 2059 3,273 2075 2,990
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
68 | P a g e
Greer County
Greer County’s population history over the last 50 years indicates a slow but consistent rate of
population decline, forecast to average ‐0.42% annually over the next 65 years. A power regression
trendline for the county’s population since 1960 indicates a high degree of fit, leading to the conclusion
that there will be little year to year variation from the overall long term population forecasts.
Decennial Census population counts
Greer
1910 16,449 1960 8,877 2010 6,239
1920 15,836 1970 7,979
1930 20,282 1980 7,028
1940 14,550 1990 6,559
1950 11,749 2000 6,061
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
16,449
15,836
20,282
14,550
11,749
8,877
7,979
7,028 6,559 6,061 6,239
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Greer County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Power Trend From 1960 to 2011
Greer County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Greer Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Greer Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Power Trendline
69 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Greer
1960 8,877 1973 7,500 1986 6,901 1999 6,193
1961 8,900 1974 7,400 1987 6,913 2000 6,061
1962 8,900 1975 7,300 1988 6,875 2001 5,837
1963 8,800 1976 7,300 1989 6,710 2002 5,861
1964 8,600 1977 7,200 1990 6,559 2003 5,781
1965 8,400 1978 6,900 1991 6,384 2004 5,807
1966 8,300 1979 6,900 1992 6,293 2005 5,799
1967 8,200 1980 7,028 1993 6,278 2006 5,739
1968 8,100 1981 7,244 1994 6,293 2007 5,803
1969 8,000 1982 7,479 1995 6,459 2008 5,820
1970 7,979 1983 7,537 1996 6,353 2009 5,830
1971 7,700 1984 7,317 1997 6,135 2010 6,239
1972 7,600 1985 7,097 1998 6,016 2011 6,125
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Greer
2012 6,045 2028 5,543 2044 5,140 2060 4,810
2013 6,010 2029 5,515 2045 5,118 2061 4,791
2014 5,976 2030 5,488 2046 5,096 2062 4,772
2015 5,942 2031 5,461 2047 5,074 2063 4,754
2016 5,908 2032 5,434 2048 5,052 2064 4,736
2017 5,875 2033 5,408 2049 5,030 2065 4,718
2018 5,843 2034 5,382 2050 5,009 2066 4,700
2019 5,811 2035 5,356 2051 4,988 2067 4,682
2020 5,779 2036 5,331 2052 4,967 2068 4,665
2021 5,748 2037 5,306 2053 4,947 2069 4,648
2022 5,717 2038 5,282 2054 4,927 2070 4,631
2023 5,687 2039 5,257 2055 4,907 2071 4,614
2024 5,658 2040 5,233 2056 4,887 2072 4,597
2025 5,628 2041 5,210 2057 4,867 2073 4,581
2026 5,599 2042 5,186 2058 4,848 2074 4,564
2027 5,571 2043 5,163 2059 4,829 2075 4,548
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
70 | P a g e
Harmon County
Harmon County is forecast to experience a declining average annual population rate of ‐0.66% between
now and 2075. Historic population trends in the county show a slowing rate of population decline and a
power regression formula drawn from that data indicates a strong level of fit. Year to year variation
from population forecasts is expected to be relatively low.
Decennial Census population counts
Harmon
1910 11,328 1960 5,852 2010 2,922
1920 11,261 1970 5,136
1930 13,834 1980 4,519
1940 10,019 1990 3,793
1950 8,079 2000 3,283
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
11,328 11,261
13,834
10,019
8,079
5,852
5,136
4,519
3,793
3,283 2,922
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Harmon County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Power Trend From 1960 to 2011
Harmon County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Harmon Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Harmon Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Power Trendline
71 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Harmon
1960 5,852 1973 4,800 1986 4,113 1999 3,278
1961 5,800 1974 4,800 1987 4,041 2000 3,283
1962 5,803 1975 5,000 1988 3,933 2001 3,155
1963 5,800 1976 5,200 1989 3,896 2002 3,050
1964 5,600 1977 5,000 1990 3,793 2003 2,986
1965 5,500 1978 5,000 1991 3,713 2004 2,939
1966 5,400 1979 4,900 1992 3,636 2005 2,955
1967 5,400 1980 4,519 1993 3,619 2006 2,916
1968 5,300 1981 4,632 1994 3,555 2007 2,833
1969 5,200 1982 4,555 1995 3,578 2008 2,834
1970 5,136 1983 4,458 1996 3,534 2009 2,843
1971 4,900 1984 4,382 1997 3,485 2010 2,922
1972 4,800 1985 4,286 1998 3,433 2011 2,919
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Harmon
2012 2,862 2028 2,429 2044 2,104 2060 1,853
2013 2,830 2029 2,406 2045 2,087 2061 1,839
2014 2,800 2030 2,383 2046 2,069 2062 1,825
2015 2,770 2031 2,361 2047 2,052 2063 1,812
2016 2,740 2032 2,339 2048 2,036 2064 1,799
2017 2,712 2033 2,318 2049 2,019 2065 1,786
2018 2,683 2034 2,297 2050 2,003 2066 1,773
2019 2,656 2035 2,276 2051 1,987 2067 1,760
2020 2,629 2036 2,256 2052 1,971 2068 1,747
2021 2,602 2037 2,236 2053 1,956 2069 1,735
2022 2,576 2038 2,216 2054 1,940 2070 1,723
2023 2,550 2039 2,197 2055 1,925 2071 1,711
2024 2,525 2040 2,177 2056 1,910 2072 1,699
2025 2,500 2041 2,159 2057 1,896 2073 1,687
2026 2,476 2042 2,140 2058 1,881 2074 1,675
2027 2,452 2043 2,122 2059 1,867 2075 1,664
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
72 | P a g e
Harper County
Harper County is forecast to have a declining rate of population growth over the coming years, with the
annual rate of decline averaging ‐0.52% between now and 2075. The rate of decline is forecast to be
somewhat higher in the short term, and lower in the long term. The level of fit for Harper County’s
power regression trendline is strong, indicating limited year to year variation from population forecasts.
Decennial Census population counts
Harper
1910 8,189 1960 5,956 2010 3,685
1920 7,623 1970 5,151
1930 7,761 1980 4,715
1940 6,454 1990 4,063
1950 5,977 2000 3,562
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
8,189
7,623 7,761
6,454
5,977
5,956 5,151
4,715
4,063
3,562 3,685
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Harper County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Power Trend From 1960 to 2011
Harper County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Harper Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Harper Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Power Trendline
73 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Harper
1960 5,956 1973 4,700 1986 4,508 1999 3,602
1961 6,000 1974 4,800 1987 4,412 2000 3,562
1962 6,000 1975 4,900 1988 4,359 2001 3,421
1963 5,900 1976 4,900 1989 4,117 2002 3,414
1964 5,700 1977 4,900 1990 4,063 2003 3,321
1965 5,600 1978 4,800 1991 3,967 2004 3,341
1966 5,500 1979 4,700 1992 3,867 2005 3,301
1967 5,500 1980 4,715 1993 3,867 2006 3,333
1968 5,300 1981 4,926 1994 3,866 2007 3,302
1969 5,200 1982 5,046 1995 3,801 2008 3,385
1970 5,151 1983 5,049 1996 3,732 2009 3,377
1971 4,800 1984 4,852 1997 3,597 2010 3,685
1972 4,700 1985 4,654 1998 3,574 2011 3,695
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Harper
2012 3,589 2028 3,186 2044 2,874 2060 2,625
2013 3,561 2029 3,165 2045 2,857 2061 2,611
2014 3,533 2030 3,143 2046 2,840 2062 2,598
2015 3,505 2031 3,122 2047 2,824 2063 2,584
2016 3,478 2032 3,101 2048 2,807 2064 2,571
2017 3,451 2033 3,081 2049 2,791 2065 2,557
2018 3,425 2034 3,061 2050 2,775 2066 2,544
2019 3,399 2035 3,041 2051 2,759 2067 2,531
2020 3,374 2036 3,021 2052 2,743 2068 2,519
2021 3,349 2037 3,002 2053 2,728 2069 2,506
2022 3,325 2038 2,983 2054 2,713 2070 2,494
2023 3,301 2039 2,964 2055 2,698 2071 2,481
2024 3,277 2040 2,946 2056 2,683 2072 2,469
2025 3,254 2041 2,928 2057 2,668 2073 2,457
2026 3,231 2042 2,910 2058 2,654 2074 2,445
2027 3,209 2043 2,892 2059 2,639 2075 2,433
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
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Haskell County
Haskell County’s population forecast anticipates a 0.47% average annual rate of growth between now
and 2075. A linear regression trendline drawn on population data over the last 50 years indicates a
strong degree of fit, leading to the anticipation of only limited year to year variation from population
forecasts.
Decennial Census population counts
Haskell
1910 18,875 1960 9,121 2010 12,769
1920 19,397 1970 9,578
1930 16,216 1980 11,010
1940 17,324 1990 10,940
1950 13,313 2000 11,792
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
18,875
19,397
16,216
17,324
13,313
9,121 9,578
11,010 10,940
11,792
12,769
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
Haskell County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Haskell County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Haskell Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Haskell Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
75 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Haskell
1960 9,121 1973 9,700 1986 11,320 1999 11,707
1961 9,300 1974 10,000 1987 11,160 2000 11,792
1962 9,400 1975 10,200 1988 11,053 2001 11,755
1963 9,400 1976 10,400 1989 10,963 2002 11,728
1964 9,400 1977 10,500 1990 10,940 2003 11,870
1965 9,300 1978 10,700 1991 10,912 2004 11,955
1966 9,300 1979 10,900 1992 11,048 2005 11,952
1967 9,500 1980 11,010 1993 11,032 2006 12,058
1968 9,500 1981 11,164 1994 11,143 2007 12,102
1969 9,500 1982 11,153 1995 11,406 2008 12,266
1970 9,578 1983 11,453 1996 11,500 2009 12,393
1971 9,900 1984 11,373 1997 11,650 2010 12,769
1972 9,800 1985 11,445 1998 11,652 2011 12,810
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Haskell
2012 12,609 2028 13,651 2044 14,693 2060 15,734
2013 12,674 2029 13,716 2045 14,758 2061 15,800
2014 12,739 2030 13,781 2046 14,823 2062 15,865
2015 12,804 2031 13,846 2047 14,888 2063 15,930
2016 12,869 2032 13,911 2048 14,953 2064 15,995
2017 12,934 2033 13,976 2049 15,018 2065 16,060
2018 13,000 2034 14,041 2050 15,083 2066 16,125
2019 13,065 2035 14,107 2051 15,148 2067 16,190
2020 13,130 2036 14,172 2052 15,214 2068 16,255
2021 13,195 2037 14,237 2053 15,279 2069 16,321
2022 13,260 2038 14,302 2054 15,344 2070 16,386
2023 13,325 2039 14,367 2055 15,409 2071 16,451
2024 13,390 2040 14,432 2056 15,474 2072 16,516
2025 13,455 2041 14,497 2057 15,539 2073 16,581
2026 13,521 2042 14,562 2058 15,604 2074 16,646
2027 13,586 2043 14,628 2059 15,669 2075 16,711
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
76 | P a g e
Hughes County
Hughes County is forecast to have a ‐0.16% average annual rate of population decline over the next 65
years. Between 1960 and 2011, the county experienced a ‐0.16% average annual rate of population
decline, with some year to year variations in population data. That same pattern is expected to
continue through 2075. While the level of fit for Hughes County’s linear regression trendline is
somewhat low, the general population trend is expected to follow the forecasted slowly declining
pattern.
Decennial Census population counts
Hughes
1910 24,040 1960 15,144 2010 14,003
1920 26,045 1970 13,228
1930 30,334 1980 14,338
1940 29,189 1990 13,023
1950 20,664 2000 14,154
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
24,040
26,045
30,334
29,189
20,664
15,144
13,228
14,338
13,023 14,154 14,003
0
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
37,500
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Hughes County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Hughes County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Hughes Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Hughes Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
77 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Hughes
1960 15,144 1973 13,900 1986 14,105 1999 14,177
1961 15,100 1974 14,100 1987 13,967 2000 14,154
1962 15,000 1975 14,500 1988 13,499 2001 13,876
1963 14,700 1976 14,500 1989 13,234 2002 13,934
1964 14,400 1977 14,500 1990 13,023 2003 13,833
1965 14,000 1978 14,200 1991 12,898 2004 13,762
1966 13,800 1979 14,300 1992 12,822 2005 13,717
1967 13,700 1980 14,338 1993 12,743 2006 13,605
1968 13,500 1981 14,388 1994 12,797 2007 13,651
1969 13,400 1982 14,522 1995 12,970 2008 13,630
1970 13,228 1983 14,721 1996 13,694 2009 13,819
1971 13,500 1984 14,617 1997 14,079 2010 14,003
1972 14,000 1985 14,233 1998 14,148 2011 13,843
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Hughes
2012 13,526 2028 13,283 2044 13,040 2060 12,797
2013 13,511 2029 13,268 2045 13,025 2061 12,782
2014 13,496 2030 13,253 2046 13,010 2062 12,767
2015 13,481 2031 13,238 2047 12,995 2063 12,752
2016 13,465 2032 13,222 2048 12,980 2064 12,737
2017 13,450 2033 13,207 2049 12,964 2065 12,721
2018 13,435 2034 13,192 2050 12,949 2066 12,706
2019 13,420 2035 13,177 2051 12,934 2067 12,691
2020 13,405 2036 13,162 2052 12,919 2068 12,676
2021 13,389 2037 13,147 2053 12,904 2069 12,661
2022 13,374 2038 13,131 2054 12,888 2070 12,646
2023 13,359 2039 13,116 2055 12,873 2071 12,630
2024 13,344 2040 13,101 2056 12,858 2072 12,615
2025 13,329 2041 13,086 2057 12,843 2073 12,600
2026 13,314 2042 13,071 2058 12,828 2074 12,585
2027 13,298 2043 13,055 2059 12,813 2075 12,570
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
78 | P a g e
Jackson County
Jackson County is forecast to have a declining average annual population rate of ‐0.38 % for the next 65
years. Since 1960, Jackson County’s population has been declining at an average annual rate of ‐0.22%
and a linear regression trendline anticipates the rate of decline will pick up slightly between now and
2075. While the level of fit for this trendline is considered to be fairly strong, some year to year
variation with the population projections can be expected.
Decennial Census population counts
Jackson
1910 23,737 1960 29,736 2010 26,446
1920 22,141 1970 30,902
1930 28,910 1980 30,356
1940 22,708 1990 28,764
1950 20,082 2000 28,439
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
23,737
22,141
28,910
22,708
20,082
29,736
30,902 30,356
28,764 28,439
26,446
0
8,000
16,000
24,000
32,000
40,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Jackson County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Jackson County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Jackson Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Jackson Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
79 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Jackson
1960 29,736 1973 31,900 1986 30,810 1999 28,789
1961 30,300 1974 32,400 1987 30,796 2000 28,439
1962 30,800 1975 32,100 1988 29,995 2001 27,890
1963 31,000 1976 33,400 1989 29,395 2002 27,347
1964 31,000 1977 32,500 1990 28,764 2003 27,203
1965 30,900 1978 31,600 1991 28,479 2004 27,181
1966 30,800 1979 30,100 1992 28,778 2005 26,471
1967 30,900 1980 30,356 1993 28,985 2006 26,241
1968 30,800 1981 29,956 1994 29,190 2007 25,739
1969 30,800 1982 30,292 1995 30,034 2008 25,336
1970 30,902 1983 31,464 1996 30,194 2009 25,369
1971 32,100 1984 31,760 1997 28,930 2010 26,446
1972 32,000 1985 31,313 1998 28,955 2011 26,447
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Jackson
2012 26,813 2028 25,081 2044 23,350 2060 21,619
2013 26,705 2029 24,973 2045 23,242 2061 21,510
2014 26,596 2030 24,865 2046 23,134 2062 21,402
2015 26,488 2031 24,757 2047 23,025 2063 21,294
2016 26,380 2032 24,649 2048 22,917 2064 21,186
2017 26,272 2033 24,540 2049 22,809 2065 21,078
2018 26,164 2034 24,432 2050 22,701 2066 20,969
2019 26,055 2035 24,324 2051 22,593 2067 20,861
2020 25,947 2036 24,216 2052 22,484 2068 20,753
2021 25,839 2037 24,108 2053 22,376 2069 20,645
2022 25,731 2038 23,999 2054 22,268 2070 20,537
2023 25,622 2039 23,891 2055 22,160 2071 20,428
2024 25,514 2040 23,783 2056 22,051 2072 20,320
2025 25,406 2041 23,675 2057 21,943 2073 20,212
2026 25,298 2042 23,566 2058 21,835 2074 20,104
2027 25,190 2043 23,458 2059 21,727 2075 19,995
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
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Jefferson County
Jefferson County is projected to experience a declining rate of population growth, with a ‐0.52% average
annual rate of decline projected through 2075. Since 1960, Jefferson County experienced an average
annual rate of decline of ‐0.42% and a linear regression trendline on the county’s historic population
data indicates that the rate of decline will pick up slightly over the next 65 years. The trendline’s level of
fit, while strong, indicates that there will be some year to year variation in the overall population
patterns.
Decennial Census population counts
Jefferson
1910 17,430 1960 8,192 2010 6,472
1920 17,664 1970 7,125
1930 17,392 1980 8,183
1940 15,107 1990 7,010
1950 11,122 2000 6,818
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
17,430
17,664
17,392
15,107
11,122
8,192
7,125 8,183 7,010
6,818
6,472
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Jefferson County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Jefferson County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Jefferson Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Jefferson Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
81 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Jefferson
1960 8,192 1973 7,700 1986 7,632 1999 6,902
1961 8,100 1974 7,800 1987 7,394 2000 6,818
1962 8,100 1975 7,900 1988 7,177 2001 6,646
1963 8,000 1976 7,900 1989 7,153 2002 6,508
1964 7,800 1977 8,100 1990 7,010 2003 6,466
1965 7,600 1978 8,300 1991 7,020 2004 6,417
1966 7,500 1979 8,200 1992 7,043 2005 6,375
1967 7,400 1980 8,183 1993 7,065 2006 6,289
1968 7,300 1981 8,158 1994 7,130 2007 6,228
1969 7,200 1982 8,418 1995 7,042 2008 6,231
1970 7,125 1983 8,596 1996 6,987 2009 6,319
1971 7,400 1984 8,135 1997 6,972 2010 6,472
1972 7,800 1985 7,956 1998 6,918 2011 6,506
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Jefferson
2012 6,428 2028 5,879 2044 5,329 2060 4,780
2013 6,394 2029 5,844 2045 5,295 2061 4,746
2014 6,359 2030 5,810 2046 5,261 2062 4,711
2015 6,325 2031 5,776 2047 5,226 2063 4,677
2016 6,291 2032 5,741 2048 5,192 2064 4,643
2017 6,256 2033 5,707 2049 5,158 2065 4,608
2018 6,222 2034 5,673 2050 5,123 2066 4,574
2019 6,188 2035 5,638 2051 5,089 2067 4,540
2020 6,153 2036 5,604 2052 5,055 2068 4,505
2021 6,119 2037 5,570 2053 5,020 2069 4,471
2022 6,085 2038 5,535 2054 4,986 2070 4,437
2023 6,050 2039 5,501 2055 4,952 2071 4,402
2024 6,016 2040 5,467 2056 4,917 2072 4,368
2025 5,982 2041 5,432 2057 4,883 2073 4,334
2026 5,947 2042 5,398 2058 4,849 2074 4,299
2027 5,913 2043 5,364 2059 4,814 2075 4,265
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
82 | P a g e
Johnston County
Johnston County’s population forecast shows a 0.50% average annual growth rate over the next 65
years. While below the anticipated 0.74% average annual statewide growth rate, this is relatively close
to the county’s historic average annual growth rate of 0.57%. A linear regression trendline drawn on
population history since 1960 shows a strong level of fit, but some year to year variability is anticipated.
Decennial Census population counts
Johnston
1910 16,734 1960 8,517 2010 10,957
1920 20,125 1970 7,870
1930 13,082 1980 10,356
1940 15,960 1990 10,032
1950 10,608 2000 10,513
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
16,734
20,125
13,082
15,960
10,608
8,517 7,870
10,356 10,032
10,513
10,957
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Johnston County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
Johnston County Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Johnston Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Johnston Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
83 | P a g e
Annual population estimates
Johnston
1960 8,517 1973 8,800 1986 10,673 1999 10,529
1961 8,500 1974 9,100 1987 10,668 2000 10,513
1962 8,600 1975 9,400 1988 10,453 2001 10,437
1963 8,500 1976 9,800 1989 10,115 2002 10,386
1964 8,300 1977 10,000 1990 10,032 2003 10,351
1965 8,200 1978 10,100 1991 9,987 2004 10,243
1966 8,100 1979 10,300 1992 10,151 2005 10,203
1967 8,000 1980 10,356 1993 10,049 2006 10,421
1968 7,900 1981 10,538 1994 10,212 2007 10,458
1969 7,900 1982 10,445 1995 10,245 2008 10,428
1970 7,870 1983 10,835 1996 10,286 2009 10,468
1971 8,100 1984 10,741 1997 10,498 2010 10,957
1972 8,500 1985 10,641 1998 10,467 2011 11,139
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
Population projections
Johnston
2012 11,178 2028 12,024 2044 12,870 2060 13,716
2013 11,231 2029 12,077 2045 12,923 2061 13,769
2014 11,284 2030 12,130 2046 12,976 2062 13,821
2015 11,337 2031 12,183 2047 13,028 2063 13,874
2016 11,390 2032 12,235 2048 13,081 2064 13,927
2017 11,442 2033 12,288 2049 13,134 2065 13,980
2018 11,495 2034 12,341 2050 13,187 2066 14,033
2019 11,548 2035 12,394 2051 13,240 2067 14,086
2020 11,601 2036 12,447 2052 13,293 2068 14,139
2021 11,654 2037 12,500 2053 13,346 2069 14,192
2022 11,707 2038 12,553 2054 13,399 2070 14,244
2023 11,760 2039 12,606 2055 13,451 2071 14,297
2024 11,813 2040 12,658 2056 13,504 2072 14,350
2025 11,865 2041 12,711 2057 13,557 2073 14,403
2026 11,918 2042 12,764 2058 13,610 2074 14,456
2027 11,971 2043 12,817 2059 13,663 2075 14,509
Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce
84 | P a g e
Kay County
Kay county is forecast to experience an average annual rate of population decline of ‐0.16% over the
next 65 years. This is slightly below the ‐0.18% average annual rate of decline indicated by county
population patterns since 1960. The level of fit for the county’s linear regression trendline is relatively
strong, but subject to some volatility. However, even after accounting for high growth rates
experienced in the 1980s, the long term trend has been for a slow population decline overall. Some
year to year variation in the population forecasts can be expected.
Decennial Census population counts
Kay
1910 26,999 1960 51,042 2010 46,562
1920 34,9